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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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I would say my depth here is ~10-20cm, although it varies depending on sun angle. Only 10 days away from the 100 day streak. Can YYZ pull it off?

 

No big time warmup in the near future, but at this time of the year, strong March sunshine with just seasonal temps would massacre a snowpack. Whether we hit the century mark is going to come down to whether we can add snow.

 

UKIE in the GFS/GEM camp for the Sunday night/Monday morning snow.

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I would say my depth here is ~10-20cm, although it varies depending on sun angle. Only 10 days away from the 100 day streak. Can YYZ pull it off?

Snow depth in my area is around 25cm. Lost about 5cm yesterday, lol. 100 is attainable if we can keep temperatures around freezing for the next 10 days. If the storm next week pans out, I wouldn't be surprised if we can hit 105-110 days. Looks like the Great lakes ice cover peaked around 92%, which makes it the second highest on record.

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No big time warmup in the near future, but at this time of the year, strong March sunshine with just seasonal temps would massacre a snowpack. Whether we hit the century mark is going to come down to whether we can add snow.

 

UKIE in the GFS/GEM camp for the Sunday night/Monday morning snow.

Very true. 12z euro not budging with the monday threat as well. Its a Euro/NAM v.s GFS/GEM/RGEM stand off right now.

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HPC getting very close with that 0.5" line. Ratios have the potential to be AOB 10:1 if we can get into the area with more intense upward motion(where omega is stronger in the SGZ). If we get more of a graze job, then ratios will suffer a lot. I do think that if enough southern energy can get involved we are subject to a slight NW shift like we have seen many times this winter inside ~60hrs. The euro has trended towards a more potent piece getting drawn from the E Rockies over the last few runs. Well see.

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12z GFS/NAM coming in NW as the northern piece is much more vigorous/phased in. Let's see if the euro also comes NW at 12z.

attachicon.gifUSA_ASNOW48_sfc_090.gif

 

Interesting. If we can keep the PNA ridge out towards the West a bit flatter than currently modeled, it will give this storm more room to move NW, which could mean the difference between getting 10cm or 15+cm in the GTA. We should see a rapid cool down for 1-3 days following this storm before temperatures warm back-up to near seasonal values. A partial phase like the one on the 12z GFS can still do us some good and even moreso, if everything else falls into place. Lets see! 

 

If our snow pack can survive tomorrow and Tuesday, we might be able to make a run at 100+ days. Just don't let the Sun come out ;) 

 

In other news, Subsurface anomalies across the ENSO regions continue to warm as the K/W penetrates through the ENSO regions. We'll have to see how this plays out through the coming months as we've seen similar set-ups in the past few years but the warm temperatures could not make it to the SFC due to strong Trade Winds. 

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So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold.

 

Weird.

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So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold.

Weird.

Actually it's 1.4 cm (for the 5th up to 7 am on the 6th) for the early Thursday morning LES. The 1.2 cm on the 4th was from the Tuesday afternoon/evening snow.
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So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold.

 

Weird.

 

North Etobicoke got around 3-4cm as well. Central Etobicoke got around 10cm and the same for YYZ. Its very intriguing but I can't disagree. The 44:1 snow ratios is mind boggling though,  :lmao:

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Its become pretty clear that the northern cutoff will be sharp but should present pretty good ratios. The thoughts going through my mind is if this can pull a last minute shift like feb 5th.

I believe we can pull off some decent amounts given the ratios and deformation bands that may form. If the PNA ridge out West flattens a bit more, we can get the Northern Stream to dig a bit more and allow it to track further NW. A solution like the 18z Nam would be golden.

Lets see!

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Right now I'm thinking 5-10 cm is the best we're going to get, but there is still wiggle room. We're not going to see 20+ cm out of this thing though. Any further north and thermals are going to be an issue notwithstanding the Thanksgiving Day sun.

 

Even if the low ends up another 100 miles to the north, I don't think thermals will be a problem. We've got a nice feed of low level cold air from that arctic high pressure cell over northern Ontario. Not sure if you were around for the March 23, 2011 event but there was a late season 15cm event that was dry powder. And it fell during the day.

 

12z NAM reminds me of Feb 5. Highest QPF is south across WNY but best mid level dynamics are right over us. In the end, we did just as well as BUF.  

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I have had April events (2003) that were powder snow.  Sun angle excuse is just a  :deadhorse:

 

Well, it can come into play if temps are otherwise marginal. You'll get a lot more melting if it's snowing near the freezing mark in March than you will in January. But if the air mass is otherwise cold enough to support powder, it'll happen.

 

I think you're referring to the April 7, 2003 event?

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Even if the low ends up another 100 miles to the north, I don't think thermals will be a problem. We've got a nice feed of low level cold air from that arctic high pressure cell over northern Ontario. Not sure if you were around for the March 23, 2011 event but there was a late season 15cm event that was dry powder. And it fell during the day.

 

12z NAM reminds me of Feb 5. Highest QPF is south across WNY but best mid level dynamics are right over us. In the end, we did just as well as BUF.

So, what do you think? 4" perhaps?

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Well, it can come into play if temps are otherwise marginal. You'll get a lot more melting if it's snowing near the freezing mark in March than you will in January. But if the air mass is otherwise cold enough to support powder, it'll happen.

 

I think you're referring to the April 7, 2003 event?

Yep.  Also April 6, 2009 is a good one but that one started as a wet snow overnight and became powdery during the day!!! 

 

Oh I agree that marginal events are affected by the sun but as you know this is not a marginal storm.  Plenty of cold air to access.

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12Z EURO doesn't bring the same kind of precip north as the GEM/NAM/GFS are showing. Still, should get great ratios with those surface and 850 temps, especially in the latter half of the storm.Text for YYZ:

 

 ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ    LAT=  43.67 LON=  -79.63 ELE=   568

                                            12Z MAR10
                 2 M     850     SFC     SFC     700    6 HR     500    1000
                 TMP     TMP     PRS     RHU     RHU     QPF     HGT     500
                 ©     ©    (MB)    (PCT)   (PCT)   (IN)    (DM)     THK

WED 06Z 12-MAR  -1.3    -2.3    1006      85      71    0.00     541     536    
WED 12Z 12-MAR  -1.5    -7.0    1006      91      76    0.02     536     532    
WED 18Z 12-MAR  -3.7   -11.9    1005      75      85    0.12     531     527    
THU 00Z 13-MAR  -8.7   -17.6    1009      65      77    0.13     524     517    
THU 06Z 13-MAR -15.4   -19.1    1013      71       8    0.00     516     507

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