snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 I would say my depth here is ~10-20cm, although it varies depending on sun angle. Only 10 days away from the 100 day streak. Can YYZ pull it off? No big time warmup in the near future, but at this time of the year, strong March sunshine with just seasonal temps would massacre a snowpack. Whether we hit the century mark is going to come down to whether we can add snow. UKIE in the GFS/GEM camp for the Sunday night/Monday morning snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 I would say my depth here is ~10-20cm, although it varies depending on sun angle. Only 10 days away from the 100 day streak. Can YYZ pull it off? Snow depth in my area is around 25cm. Lost about 5cm yesterday, lol. 100 is attainable if we can keep temperatures around freezing for the next 10 days. If the storm next week pans out, I wouldn't be surprised if we can hit 105-110 days. Looks like the Great lakes ice cover peaked around 92%, which makes it the second highest on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 No big time warmup in the near future, but at this time of the year, strong March sunshine with just seasonal temps would massacre a snowpack. Whether we hit the century mark is going to come down to whether we can add snow. UKIE in the GFS/GEM camp for the Sunday night/Monday morning snow. Very true. 12z euro not budging with the monday threat as well. Its a Euro/NAM v.s GFS/GEM/RGEM stand off right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 8, 2014 Share Posted March 8, 2014 The very impressive defo band is tantalizingly close on the 12z euro. One more bump north and were really in the game. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 8, 2014 Author Share Posted March 8, 2014 The very impressive defo band is tantalizingly close on the 12z euro. One more bump north and were really in the game. Too bad there's no real trend yet. 0z runs could go back south for all we know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 HPC getting very close with that 0.5" line. Ratios have the potential to be AOB 10:1 if we can get into the area with more intense upward motion(where omega is stronger in the SGZ). If we get more of a graze job, then ratios will suffer a lot. I do think that if enough southern energy can get involved we are subject to a slight NW shift like we have seen many times this winter inside ~60hrs. The euro has trended towards a more potent piece getting drawn from the E Rockies over the last few runs. Well see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 00Z GEM was pretty bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Down In Lambton County and there are patches of grass all over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 00Z GEM was pretty bad. 12z GFS/NAM coming in NW as the northern piece is much more vigorous/phased in. Let's see if the euro also comes NW at 12z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 12z GFS/NAM coming in NW as the northern piece is much more vigorous/phased in. Let's see if the euro also comes NW at 12z. USA_ASNOW48_sfc_090.gif Interesting. If we can keep the PNA ridge out towards the West a bit flatter than currently modeled, it will give this storm more room to move NW, which could mean the difference between getting 10cm or 15+cm in the GTA. We should see a rapid cool down for 1-3 days following this storm before temperatures warm back-up to near seasonal values. A partial phase like the one on the 12z GFS can still do us some good and even moreso, if everything else falls into place. Lets see! If our snow pack can survive tomorrow and Tuesday, we might be able to make a run at 100+ days. Just don't let the Sun come out In other news, Subsurface anomalies across the ENSO regions continue to warm as the K/W penetrates through the ENSO regions. We'll have to see how this plays out through the coming months as we've seen similar set-ups in the past few years but the warm temperatures could not make it to the SFC due to strong Trade Winds. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold. Weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold. Weird. Actually it's 1.4 cm (for the 5th up to 7 am on the 6th) for the early Thursday morning LES. The 1.2 cm on the 4th was from the Tuesday afternoon/evening snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 9, 2014 Author Share Posted March 9, 2014 Actually it's 1.4 cm for the Thursday morning LES. The 1.2 cm on the 4th was from the Tuesday afternoon/evening snow. Oops. Thanks for the correction. It makes the difference is even more egregious. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 Not much snow fell downtown Thursday morning. East York reported only 0.4 cm. Very strange for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 So downtown got 2.6cm from the LES event on Thursday. Lakeshore from Oakville to Etobicoke received virtually nothing from reports received from Harrisale and Mississaugasnow. So, somehow, this LES streamer managed to leapfrog over the lakeshore area and dump on the 401. That is mind-boggling to me. This wasn't an early season event where it could be rain by the lake. Temps were uniformly cold. Weird. North Etobicoke got around 3-4cm as well. Central Etobicoke got around 10cm and the same for YYZ. Its very intriguing but I can't disagree. The 44:1 snow ratios is mind boggling though, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 9, 2014 Share Posted March 9, 2014 The 12z GFS was a weenie run. Great storm this Wednesday followed by another one on the 16-17th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 The 0z Euro showed 0.30 qpf in the GTA, which equates to ~8-12cm. Lets see how the models play out today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Its become pretty clear that the northern cutoff will be sharp but should present pretty good ratios. The thoughts going through my mind is if this can pull a last minute shift like feb 5th. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Its become pretty clear that the northern cutoff will be sharp but should present pretty good ratios. The thoughts going through my mind is if this can pull a last minute shift like feb 5th.I believe we can pull off some decent amounts given the ratios and deformation bands that may form. If the PNA ridge out West flattens a bit more, we can get the Northern Stream to dig a bit more and allow it to track further NW. A solution like the 18z Nam would be golden. Lets see! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Right now I'm thinking 5-10 cm is the best we're going to get, but there is still wiggle room. We're not going to see 20+ cm out of this thing though. Any further north and thermals are going to be an issue notwithstanding the Thanksgiving Day sun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 Right now I'm thinking 5-10 cm is the best we're going to get, but there is still wiggle room. We're not going to see 20+ cm out of this thing though. Any further north and thermals are going to be an issue notwithstanding the Thanksgiving Day sun. Even if the low ends up another 100 miles to the north, I don't think thermals will be a problem. We've got a nice feed of low level cold air from that arctic high pressure cell over northern Ontario. Not sure if you were around for the March 23, 2011 event but there was a late season 15cm event that was dry powder. And it fell during the day. 12z NAM reminds me of Feb 5. Highest QPF is south across WNY but best mid level dynamics are right over us. In the end, we did just as well as BUF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 I have had April events (2003) that were powder snow. Sun angle excuse is just a Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 I have had April events (2003) that were powder snow. Sun angle excuse is just a Well, it can come into play if temps are otherwise marginal. You'll get a lot more melting if it's snowing near the freezing mark in March than you will in January. But if the air mass is otherwise cold enough to support powder, it'll happen. I think you're referring to the April 7, 2003 event? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Even if the low ends up another 100 miles to the north, I don't think thermals will be a problem. We've got a nice feed of low level cold air from that arctic high pressure cell over northern Ontario. Not sure if you were around for the March 23, 2011 event but there was a late season 15cm event that was dry powder. And it fell during the day. 12z NAM reminds me of Feb 5. Highest QPF is south across WNY but best mid level dynamics are right over us. In the end, we did just as well as BUF. So, what do you think? 4" perhaps? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Whitelakeroy Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Well, it can come into play if temps are otherwise marginal. You'll get a lot more melting if it's snowing near the freezing mark in March than you will in January. But if the air mass is otherwise cold enough to support powder, it'll happen. I think you're referring to the April 7, 2003 event? Yep. Also April 6, 2009 is a good one but that one started as a wet snow overnight and became powdery during the day!!! Oh I agree that marginal events are affected by the sun but as you know this is not a marginal storm. Plenty of cold air to access. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 So, what do you think? 4" perhaps? Based on the 12z trends thus far...that's a bottom number. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Liking the trends lately. Energy is almost completely onshore so by the 00Z runs tonight I think we will have the track nailed down. Prelim call 10-15cm for YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 12Z EURO doesn't bring the same kind of precip north as the GEM/NAM/GFS are showing. Still, should get great ratios with those surface and 850 temps, especially in the latter half of the storm.Text for YYZ: ECMWF Deterministic FORECAST FOR: YYZ LAT= 43.67 LON= -79.63 ELE= 568 12Z MAR10 2 M 850 SFC SFC 700 6 HR 500 1000 TMP TMP PRS RHU RHU QPF HGT 500 © © (MB) (PCT) (PCT) (IN) (DM) THKWED 06Z 12-MAR -1.3 -2.3 1006 85 71 0.00 541 536 WED 12Z 12-MAR -1.5 -7.0 1006 91 76 0.02 536 532 WED 18Z 12-MAR -3.7 -11.9 1005 75 85 0.12 531 527 THU 00Z 13-MAR -8.7 -17.6 1009 65 77 0.13 524 517 THU 06Z 13-MAR -15.4 -19.1 1013 71 8 0.00 516 507 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 10, 2014 Author Share Posted March 10, 2014 I'm liking a prelim call of 3-5" (8-12cm) for Toronto. SREF mean will guide my calls once there's more clustering of members around the mean. Right now there's too much spread for it to be useful despite its exemplary performance this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 10, 2014 Share Posted March 10, 2014 Snows melting away, lol. Down to 18cm in my area. You know people are tired of Winter when they're wearing shorts and t-shirts outside -_- LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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