blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Here's what you guys are hitching your hope to. I'll need a lot more convincing though. With a deep NE flow off the Atlantic, this looks like the type of setup that's susceptible to sneaky warm layers. And that's assuming the low even retrogrades as much as is currently progged. But verbatim...it's pretty sweet. I agree that its definitely a long shot but I don't think thermals are the biggest problem. I am more concerned about the CCB strength and obviously how far west it can extend. At least its something to keep an eye on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 4/22/12 is a good example of models overdoing the strength of a retrograding CCB, though thermal wise, that setup was significantly less supportive for GTA snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 I agree that its definitely a long shot but I don't think thermals are the biggest problem. I am more concerned about the CCB strength and obviously how far west it can extension. At least its something to keep an eye on. Yeah, this came like a bolt from beyond to save us from our boredom. Compared to the rest of the subforum we're pretty lucky at least to have something to track. Plus, I'll be back in Toronto starting on Wednesday (or late Tuesday). So good timing if it materializes Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Yeah, this came like a bolt from beyond to save us from our boredom. Compared to the rest of the subforum we're pretty lucky at least to have something to track. Plus, I'll be back in Toronto starting on Wednesday (or late Tuesday). So good timing if it materializes Nice to have you in town/tracking the storm. Great timing too... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 4/22/12 is a good example of models overdoing the strength of a retrograding CCB, though thermal wise, that setup was significantly less supportive for GTA snow. What a nut punch that was. Models just couldn't let us put that futility winter behind us without a sudden death mirage. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 4/22/12 is a good example of models overdoing the strength of a retrograding CCB, though thermal wise, that setup was significantly less supportive for GTA snow. If i remember correctly, the storm back in late Feb 2010 was also a retrograding LP which managed to drop around 3-5" in the GTA. These types of storms can happen, but models usually have a tough time trying to interpret the exact track. The precip. shield is a sharp cut-off with this storm. A track 50km either West or East atm could mean the difference of a few inches in the GTA. Interesting week ahead no doubt! Surface temps and temps aloft are supportive of accumulating snowfall so lets see how it comes to fruition. I've got exams this week for University so it better not tamper with my commute from Vaughan to Downtown LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 I agree that its definitely a long shot but I don't think thermals are the biggest problem. I am more concerned about the CCB strength and obviously how far west it can extend. At least its something to keep an eye on. Do you see Toronto getting at least 2"? I'm sure the military mets at CFB Borden and Petawawa are closely monitoring the models to determine whether or not the military will be needed in Toronto later this week. J/K. I was born and raised in Toronto. I can joke about stuff like that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Do you see Toronto getting at least 2"? I'm sure the military mets at CFB Borden and Petawawa are closely monitoring the models to determine whether or not the military will be needed in Toronto later this week. J/K. I was born and raised in Toronto. I can joke about stuff like that. I do think its likely... how much more is the question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 21z SREF mean has 4.1" at YYZ. NAM has 0.2-0.3" of QPF and 3-5" of snow through the GTA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 0z GFS actually looks like a near miss for the GTA. Flurries, if anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 S. ON Winter thread: http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/45085-southern-ontario-winter-14-15-discussion/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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