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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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A waste of a decent LE setup here this morning. Inversion heights just aren't high enough to get Delta-T's into that favourable range. Later tonight as the WAA precip moves through we may get clipped by some light-mod returns with potential for some Lehs as well.

 

You can see a band struggling to get going on BUF radar, but yeah, overall just too hostile of an environment. Maybe some flurries.

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You can see a band struggling to get going on BUF radar, but yeah, overall just too hostile of an environment. Maybe some flurries.

Agree... wouldnt be surprised at all. Returns can sneak below the beam and you can get some unexpected reports. Overall, tonight is of more interest. RAP says ZRPL mix while NAM is all SN.

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Agree... wouldnt be surprised at all. Returns can sneak below the beam and you can get some unexpected reports. Overall, tonight is of more interest. RAP says ZRPL mix while NAM is all SN.

Do you think Toronto could at least see an inch? Ottawa looks to cash in on about 2-3" tonight if EC is to be believed.

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Official Winter outlook from Environment Canada. Looks like they are one of the minority not calling for another cold winter:

 

Canada winter forecast: El Nino should keep polar vortex at bay

http://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canada-winter-forecast-el-nino-should-keep-polar-vortex-at-bay-1.2857371

 

canada-weather.jpg

To be honest, that map could be looked at another way. Given December is forecast to be so mild by Environment Canada, for the winter as a whole to end up average January and February are going to have to be quite cold. For me, the 1911-1912 analog looks good - perhaps a slightly warmer version of that winter.

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I notice how Environment Canada has jumped on the polar vortex bandwagon as well with their media releases. Yesterday I heard an ad here saying that last winter "the polar vortex had frozen Ontario to the core", as if something similar hadn't happened back in years such as 1977, 1978 and 1994. We love our hashtags in the twitter era!

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I notice how Environment Canada has jumped on the polar vortex bandwagon as well with their media releases. Yesterday I heard an ad here saying that last winter "the polar vortex had frozen Ontario to the core", as if something similar hadn't happened back in years such as 1977, 1978 and 1994. We love our hashtags in the twitter era!

Dave Phillips is an idiot

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A combined 0.3-0.4" of QPF from Tuesday aft-Thursday Aft on the euro. With warm sfc temps, ratios will be pretty low but at least flakes should fly within this boring pattern. Here are the QPF numbers for other parts of the 'shoe.

Kingston: 0.8-0.9"
Niagara Falls/St Catharines: 0.9-1.0"
Grimsby- ~0.6"
 

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A combined 0.3-0.4" of QPF from Tuesday aft-Thursday Aft on the euro. With warm sfc temps, ratios will be pretty low but at least flakes should fly within this boring pattern. Here are the QPF numbers for other parts of the 'shoe.

Kingston: 0.8-0.9"

Niagara Falls/St Catharines: 0.9-1.0"

Grimsby- ~0.6"

A couple of runs of the GGEM (GDPS) from earlier this week showed a decent snow event (over 4") for the GTA for Tue-Thurs of next week. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF and UKMET continue to trend NW in future model runs. The evolution of next week's storm is kind of similar to the Dec. 10-11, 1992 event which gave Toronto a foot of wet snow (16" in Scarborough). In that storm, two low pressure systems combined to form a monster along the US east coast.

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0z GFS throws some backend snow towards the GTA from the mid week storm while packing a punch for EONT and Southern Quebec. 

 

The 0z GFS spits out ~5cm for the GTA and ~15-20cm for EONT/Southern Quebec. Temperatures are cold enough to support snow at 925mb and the surface for the GTA, but for Ottawa and Montreal it looks like a messy mix. Close call, but it seems interesting to watch in my opinion especially for Ottawa and Montreal. 

 

The latest GGEM however, is a touch East of the GTA and a bit colder for EONT/Southern Quebec. 

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12z euro has the initial low go up from ACY to NYC, then a secondary redevelops in the gulf maine and retrogrades back to cornwall. Pending any 925mb warm layer(t925 maps aren't working on wxbell), its a 5-10cm run for the GTA under supportive sfc/850mb temps. That's in agreement with the GFS.

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I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome.

EURO has been consistent with it and the GFS is now starting to follow suit.

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I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome.

18z GFS tops it by a huge margin. 15-25cm GTA wide with most over the East end. Getting a lot more interesting although many possibilities are on the table.

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I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome.

 

 

18z GFS tops it by a huge margin. 15-25cm GTA wide with most over the East end. Getting a lot more interesting although many possibilities are on the table.

This reminds me somewhat of the November 16-17, 2002 storm. Was that not an east coast storm that gave both Toronto and Ottawa about 8" of snow?

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Here's what you guys are hitching your hope to. I'll need a lot more convincing though. With a deep NE flow off the Atlantic, this looks like the type of setup that's susceptible to sneaky warm layers. And that's assuming the low even retrogrades as much as is currently progged. But verbatim...it's pretty sweet.

 

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.

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Here's what you guys are hitching your hope to. I'll need a lot more convincing though. With a deep NE flow off the Atlantic, this looks like the type of setup that's susceptible to sneaky warm layers. And that's assuming the low even retrogrades as much as is currently progged. But verbatim...it's pretty sweet.

 

CONUS2_GFS0P5_SFC_ACCUM-SNOW_10-1_120HR.

I don't want to keep my hopes up too high, so my initial call would be for 2" in Toronto.

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