snowstormcanuck Posted December 2, 2014 Author Share Posted December 2, 2014 A waste of a decent LE setup here this morning. Inversion heights just aren't high enough to get Delta-T's into that favourable range. Later tonight as the WAA precip moves through we may get clipped by some light-mod returns with potential for some Lehs as well. You can see a band struggling to get going on BUF radar, but yeah, overall just too hostile of an environment. Maybe some flurries. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 You can see a band struggling to get going on BUF radar, but yeah, overall just too hostile of an environment. Maybe some flurries. Agree... wouldnt be surprised at all. Returns can sneak below the beam and you can get some unexpected reports. Overall, tonight is of more interest. RAP says ZRPL mix while NAM is all SN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 2, 2014 Share Posted December 2, 2014 Agree... wouldnt be surprised at all. Returns can sneak below the beam and you can get some unexpected reports. Overall, tonight is of more interest. RAP says ZRPL mix while NAM is all SN. Do you think Toronto could at least see an inch? Ottawa looks to cash in on about 2-3" tonight if EC is to be believed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just looking at the HRRR, could be a decent lake effect setup IMBY this evening as winds come around due W to WNW. Shear looks good but not sure delta-t's will be sufficient for strong lift. At work so don't have BUFKIT... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted December 3, 2014 Share Posted December 3, 2014 Just looking at the HRRR, could be a decent lake effect setup IMBY this evening as winds come around due W to WNW. Shear looks good but not sure delta-t's will be sufficient for strong lift. At work so don't have BUFKIT... Almost 2" so far out this way Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Official Winter outlook from Environment Canada. Looks like they are one of the minority not calling for another cold winter: Canada winter forecast: El Nino should keep polar vortex at bayhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canada-winter-forecast-el-nino-should-keep-polar-vortex-at-bay-1.2857371 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Lol at the patch of below normal over the middle of Superior and a few square miles of Ontario. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Official Winter outlook from Environment Canada. Looks like they are one of the minority not calling for another cold winter: Canada winter forecast: El Nino should keep polar vortex at bayhttp://www.cbc.ca/news/canada/toronto/canada-winter-forecast-el-nino-should-keep-polar-vortex-at-bay-1.2857371 To be honest, that map could be looked at another way. Given December is forecast to be so mild by Environment Canada, for the winter as a whole to end up average January and February are going to have to be quite cold. For me, the 1911-1912 analog looks good - perhaps a slightly warmer version of that winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I notice how Environment Canada has jumped on the polar vortex bandwagon as well with their media releases. Yesterday I heard an ad here saying that last winter "the polar vortex had frozen Ontario to the core", as if something similar hadn't happened back in years such as 1977, 1978 and 1994. We love our hashtags in the twitter era! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IWXwx Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Is this right? ENVIRONMENT CANADA - MINISTER Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 I notice how Environment Canada has jumped on the polar vortex bandwagon as well with their media releases. Yesterday I heard an ad here saying that last winter "the polar vortex had frozen Ontario to the core", as if something similar hadn't happened back in years such as 1977, 1978 and 1994. We love our hashtags in the twitter era! Dave Phillips is an idiot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 4, 2014 Author Share Posted December 4, 2014 Is this right? ENVIRONMENT CANADA - MINISTER RedGreen.jpg lol. Red's idea of putting a faux mailbox over fire hydrants so you can park in front of them is genius. Genius I tell you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 4, 2014 Share Posted December 4, 2014 Dave Phillips is an idiot I've actually spoken to him a few times in the past. He's actually quite a nice guy, and very knowledgeable. His weather trivia calendar is excellent, I find. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 A combined 0.3-0.4" of QPF from Tuesday aft-Thursday Aft on the euro. With warm sfc temps, ratios will be pretty low but at least flakes should fly within this boring pattern. Here are the QPF numbers for other parts of the 'shoe. Kingston: 0.8-0.9"Niagara Falls/St Catharines: 0.9-1.0"Grimsby- ~0.6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 A combined 0.3-0.4" of QPF from Tuesday aft-Thursday Aft on the euro. With warm sfc temps, ratios will be pretty low but at least flakes should fly within this boring pattern. Here are the QPF numbers for other parts of the 'shoe. Kingston: 0.8-0.9" Niagara Falls/St Catharines: 0.9-1.0" Grimsby- ~0.6" A couple of runs of the GGEM (GDPS) from earlier this week showed a decent snow event (over 4") for the GTA for Tue-Thurs of next week. It will be interesting to see if the ECMWF and UKMET continue to trend NW in future model runs. The evolution of next week's storm is kind of similar to the Dec. 10-11, 1992 event which gave Toronto a foot of wet snow (16" in Scarborough). In that storm, two low pressure systems combined to form a monster along the US east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted December 6, 2014 Share Posted December 6, 2014 12z Euro snow map from Ryan Maue of weatherbell.com: https://twitter.com/RyanMaue/status/541300618464210944 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 0z GFS throws some backend snow towards the GTA from the mid week storm while packing a punch for EONT and Southern Quebec. The 0z GFS spits out ~5cm for the GTA and ~15-20cm for EONT/Southern Quebec. Temperatures are cold enough to support snow at 925mb and the surface for the GTA, but for Ottawa and Montreal it looks like a messy mix. Close call, but it seems interesting to watch in my opinion especially for Ottawa and Montreal. The latest GGEM however, is a touch East of the GTA and a bit colder for EONT/Southern Quebec. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Zzzz... wake me up for a 15+ cm event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Zzzz... wake me up for a 15+ cm event. Yeah, nothing really exciting me about that midweek "event". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 12z euro has the initial low go up from ACY to NYC, then a secondary redevelops in the gulf maine and retrogrades back to cornwall. Pending any 925mb warm layer(t925 maps aren't working on wxbell), its a 5-10cm run for the GTA under supportive sfc/850mb temps. That's in agreement with the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 Zzzz... wake me up for a 15+ cm event. Yeah, nothing really exciting me about that midweek "event". Personally I'd welcome 5cm. At least it would whiten up the ground and make it look like Christmas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Personally I'd welcome 5cm. At least it would whiten up the ground and make it look like Christmas. I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome. EURO has been consistent with it and the GFS is now starting to follow suit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome. 18z GFS tops it by a huge margin. 15-25cm GTA wide with most over the East end. Getting a lot more interesting although many possibilities are on the table. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 The key to the further west track on the GFS is the location of the northern PVA tail on the anterior side of the upper low. Note how the feature is further south on the 18z run allowing the vort to go more negatively tilted. This steers the sfc low further NW.12z GFS 18z GFS:QPF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dan123 Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I noticed the 12z euro ensemble mean gives the GTA 10-20 cm of snow. Not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 7, 2014 Share Posted December 7, 2014 I'd welcome it too. I'm not sure we're going to get it though. Retrograding EC upper lows, while not unheard of, are pretty uncommon. 12z EURO solution is a low probability outcome. 18z GFS tops it by a huge margin. 15-25cm GTA wide with most over the East end. Getting a lot more interesting although many possibilities are on the table. This reminds me somewhat of the November 16-17, 2002 storm. Was that not an east coast storm that gave both Toronto and Ottawa about 8" of snow? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 7, 2014 Author Share Posted December 7, 2014 Here's what you guys are hitching your hope to. I'll need a lot more convincing though. With a deep NE flow off the Atlantic, this looks like the type of setup that's susceptible to sneaky warm layers. And that's assuming the low even retrogrades as much as is currently progged. But verbatim...it's pretty sweet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted December 8, 2014 Share Posted December 8, 2014 Here's what you guys are hitching your hope to. I'll need a lot more convincing though. With a deep NE flow off the Atlantic, this looks like the type of setup that's susceptible to sneaky warm layers. And that's assuming the low even retrogrades as much as is currently progged. But verbatim...it's pretty sweet. I don't want to keep my hopes up too high, so my initial call would be for 2" in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted December 8, 2014 Author Share Posted December 8, 2014 I don't want to keep my hopes up too high, so my initial call would be for 2" in Toronto. Well, attm at least, you're in the best spot in the city for this storm. Congrats. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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