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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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Yeah that document makes it seem like that 77 inches in 24 hours to be untrue, but not positive. Yeah, definitely looks like a fun time next week for Lake effect. Bands should be meandering all over for most of the week. I'm not sure what I received in lake effect last season, but most of the time 60% of our yearly snowfall is from lake effect. Had 162 inches total last year at my location, 130 at the Buffalo Airport.

 

Here is my YouTube channel if you want to see my Lake effect chases from last year.

 

https://www.youtube.com/channel/UC3LutXF6kA73itxjVZ9h7-w

 

Amazing videos man. Stay safe and warm, haha! Wow thats crazy! 162 inches in one season, damn? i can only imagine that. I recall Quebec city got a record breaking 220 inches of snow back in 07-08 and all of that came from consistent storminess. Lets hope this Winter is good for all of us. Nothing beats a classic widespread Winter storm, haha. 

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Looks like the 12z Euro bumped up precip a bit... now showing ~0.4" for the GTA. In line with the NAM/GFS and RGEM on a 3-4" event in the city.

 

Interesting to say the least. I rather prefer analyzing short range models now like the NAM, RUC, HRRR and RGEM, but seeing great consensus among models is astounding. The radar is starting to look great as the storm begins to organize itself.

 

My initial call is for 5-7cm north of the 401 and 1-4cm south of the 401. Whats your thoughts? 

 

Stay safe! 

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I'd say a uniform 2-3" for the GTA. I don't see a large north-to-south gradient because where areas along the lake may struggle with higher temperatures, areas north of the 401 will have less precip unless a classic deformation line forms along the 401.. but since the system is not very intense, I don't see the signature line forming.

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717  

WOCN11 CWTO 161651  

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA AT 11:51 AM  

EST SUNDAY 16 NOVEMBER 2014.  

---------------------------------------------------------------------  

SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT FOR:  

=NEW= SIMCOE - DELHI - NORFOLK  

=NEW= DUNNVILLE - CALEDONIA - HALDIMAND  

=NEW= NIAGARA  

=NEW= BROCKVILLE - LEEDS AND GRENVILLE  

=NEW= CITY OF OTTAWA  

=NEW= GATINEAU  

=NEW= PRESCOTT AND RUSSELL  

=NEW= CORNWALL - MORRISBURG  

=NEW= SMITHS FALLS - LANARK - SHARBOT LAKE.  

 

SNOWFALL AMOUNTS 5 TO 10 CM POSSIBLE TONIGHT AND TOMORROW.  

 

---------------------------------------------------------------------  

==DISCUSSION==  

A LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILL PASS SOUTH OF ONTARIO ON MONDAY.  

THIS SYSTEM WILL SPREAD AN AREA OF PRECIPITATION INTO SOUTHERN  

ONTARIO. AT THIS POINT, IT APPEARS THAT AREAS NEAR THE EASTERN LAKE  

ERIE SHORE, AND AREAS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER WILL LIKELY  

RECEIVE THE HIGHEST AMOUNTS.  

 

CURRENT INDICATION SUGGEST THAT SNOW WILL BEGIN OVER REGIONS NORTH OF  

LAKE ERIE THIS EVENING, THEN MOVE EASTWARD TO EASTERN ONTARIO MONDAY  

MORNING, AND SPREAD TO THE AREAS NORTH OF THE ST. LAWRENCE RIVER IN  

THE AFTERNOON. SNOWFALL AMOUNTS ARE LIKELY TO BE IN THE RANGE OF 5  

TO 10 CM. SNOW ACCUMULATION COULD BE LESS ALONG THE ST.  

LAWRENCE RIVER AS IT MAY BECOME MIXED WITH RAIN LATE TOMORROW  

AFTERNOON.  

 

THE PUBLIC IS ADVISED TO MONITOR FUTURE FORECASTS AND WARNINGS AS  

WARNINGS MAY BE REQUIRED.  

 

PLEASE MONITOR THE LATEST FORECASTS AND WARNINGS FROM ENVIRONMENT  

CANADA AT WWW.WEATHEROFFICE.GC.CA  

 

END

 

Environment Canada going with only south and east regions in the 5-10cm range.

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Latest RUC has 3-6" for areas north of the 401 and 2-3" near the Lake. In the radar loop you can see some deformation bands trying to form which aide in the total accumulations its spitting out. Should be a fun night, haha! 

 

 

post-6644-0-59939700-1416176080_thumb.pn

 

Edit: The latest RAP is more reasonable and shows 2-3" for the GTA, closer to 3-4" in Hamilton and 5- 6" around the Niagara region. 

 

post-6644-0-58756100-1416176278_thumb.pn 

 

 

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Latest HRRR shows 2-3" with a burst of >3" near the lake. However, it cut down on amounts in the Niagara region. 

 

post-6644-0-56095500-1416190743_thumb.pn 

 

Interestingly enough the latest RUC still being consistent on its amounts. I don't think anybody in the GTA is gonna see more than 3 or 4", maybe localized, but thats about it.

 

post-6644-0-39951600-1416190822_thumb.pn

 

 

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4.5cm down so far, SN coming down at a nice clip. That amount brings my november snow total to 9.1cm. Already above the Nov average with more snow to come.

 

There was like 2cm in downtown at UFOT this morning haha. At the moment, Its mixing in with rain at times and melting on contact. 

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There was like 2cm in downtown at UFOT this morning haha. At the moment, Its mixing in with rain at times and melting on contact. 

Most of the accumulation is on grass/non paved surfaces although the side street are becoming increasingly slick. Lets see what happens over the next few hours. Wouldn't surprise me if rates increase quite a bit towards 17z-19z.

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Most of the accumulation is on grass/non paved surfaces although the side street are becoming increasingly slick. Lets see what happens over the next few hours. Wouldn't surprise me if rates increase quite a bit towards 17z-19z.

Yeah roads are slick everywhere. This storm caught alot of people off guard. How much has YYZ recorded? I'm at UFOT all day, so I'll be watching to see if it turns to all snow later on.

Seeing some decent radar returns atm.

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