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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion


snowstormcanuck

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12km NAM still hinting at that Lake band tonight.

 

EC issued a statement mentioning the potential. Statement doesn't include Toronto or Mississauga-Brampton though (horseshoe from Oakville to Niagara).

 

Lock it in. Snow was great to see last night, extended period of parachutes and very little wind. A nice fluffy 2-3cm IMBY.

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These are particularly massive because they gather the entire stretch of snow on lake erie when frozen and deposit it against these banks when we have strong winds. Some of them are high as telephone wires. I have a video that I will post tonight most likely.

Please post the video if possible. Being on the southern shore of Lake Erie I've never seen anything like it before.

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Couples picks i've seen on twitter. First one from etobicoke, second one taken from mississauga earlier.

attachicon.gifBiC1HFWCcAAhrXV.jpg

 

attachicon.gifBiCUmb3CIAAPXzk.jpg

 

Jeez, what a surprise. I mean I thought a few cms would be possible but not 10+.

 

Even though 850 temps are now above -10c the band still looks relatively healthy. You can tell it's located lower in the atmosphere where it's colder. 925 temps are still -12 to -13c.

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Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%.

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Jeez, what a surprise. I mean I thought a few cms would be possible but not 10+.

 

Even though 850 temps are now above -10c the band still looks relatively healthy. You can tell it's located lower in the atmosphere where it's colder. 925 temps are still -12 to -13c.

More of a SB band would make sense based on soundings i looked at earlier. Right now, weve got light snow with accasional mod bursts here. After taking a look at the radar over the last 8 hours or so, returns didn't look that great which means that most of the band probably hung out below the beam with the amounts that are being reported.

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Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%.

The question is, when has EC ever been right and on a consistency basis? They've failed numerous times this season already and tonights no different. I'm not sure if it's the budget cuts in recent years that has hurt them, but that gives them no excuse to not warn the public.

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More of a SB band would make sense based on soundings i looked at earlier. Right now, weve got light snow with accasional mod bursts here. After taking a look at the radar over the last 8 hours or so, returns didn't look that great which means that most of the band probably hung out below the beam with the amounts that are being reported.

 

Gotta figure at some point lowering inversion heights/delta ts are going to quash this thing. But with the winds veering to the SE maybe you can get into some of the more consistent moderate snow before everything falls apart.

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The question is, when has EC ever been right and on a consistency basis? They've failed numerous times this season already and tonights no different. I'm not sure if it's the budget cuts in recent years that has hurt them, but that gives them no excuse to not warn the public.

 

It's a tough job to predict the weather. I understand that. But it seems like they miss the small stuff too that even hobbyists like us have no problem identifying.

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It's a tough job to predict the weather. I understand that. But it seems like they miss the small stuff too that even hobbyists like us have no problem identifying.

As hobbyist if there are 5 models and 1 shows exactly what we want then we cling to it. The other 4 models are not impressive and are more likely to verify (except crazy winter like this one).  They do a lot on statistics and normally it is a good way to go.  Most winters we are bummed and pissed hobbyist because that 1 model usually doesn't verify.  This winter (outside of a few systems IMBY) you could pick the more extreme model and it would turn pretty darn close.

 

In addition we rarely give them credit when they are right and slam them to no end when they are wrong.

 

As a hobbyist when you are wrong the only person pissed or happy is yourself.  A MET well they have a whole audience they have to consider.

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We get so few of them which makes this extra special.

 

March is off to a fast start here. Now we got to work on reviving that D7 storm.

I think that D7 storm has potential.  I like when the models are not showing the perfect storm in D7 range.  The elements are there we just need it to phase correctly.

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As hobbyist if there are 5 models and 1 shows exactly what we want then we cling to it. The other 4 models are not impressive and are more likely to verify (except crazy winter like this one).  They do a lot on statistics and normally it is a good way to go.  Most winters we are bummed and pissed hobbyist because that 1 model usually doesn't verify.  This winter (outside of a few systems IMBY) you could pick the more extreme model and it would turn pretty darn close.

 

In addition we rarely give them credit when they are right and slam them to no end when they are wrong.

 

As a hobbyist when you are wrong the only person pissed or happy is yourself.  A MET well they have a whole audience they have to consider.

 

It's different here. NWS does a pretty good job...at least most of the offices I'm familiar with. EC is another story. If 5 models show a hit, and 1 doesn't, and that 1 is the RGEM/GGEM, then that's what their forecast is based on (or at least it really seems that way). And it's not based on meteorological reasoning. Frankly, it may be the only model they look at.

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Can't believe what I'm hearing with these amounts. Woke up to not even a dusting on the ground. Sounds like we got completely whiffed here.

 

When I went to bed it looked like the band was impacting Oakville/Burlington, but the part of the band over the water had made a noticeable jump to the north. It may have blown through pretty quickly.

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Another shameful job by EC. I would never have faulted them for not going with 10cm+ amounts but they never even mentioned the potential of this LES impacting Toronto when it was painfully obvious that it was on the table. Never included in the SWS, never had local amounts included in yesterday's forecast, never had POPs greater than 40%.

 

Not sure if you're talking about one being issued, but they did put a vague SWS for Toronto and southern Peel Region at 218am then canceled it at 432am

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