Southern Ontario Weather Discussion

[snowstormcanuck]

Update to post above; 

 

YYZ now reporting -SN with a temperature of 1.5C. 

 

I'm in Etobicoke this weekend. Just spent a good 10 minutes outside. Only a stray flake here and there, despite that promising report out of YYZ.

[Snowstorms]

I'm in Etobicoke this weekend. Just spent a good 10 minutes outside. Only a stray flake here and there, despite that promising report out of YYZ.

 

Really? Its been snowing lightly in my area for the past half hour to 45 minutes. Well EC doesn't report anything lighter than "Light snow", so its hard to pinpoint the intensity because of that.  

 

I like your signature, haha  .  I'm sure you'll love that Lake Effect snow down in London this Winter, haha. 

 

Edit: Temperature now down to 1.3C at YYZ. 

[snowstormcanuck]

Really? Its been snowing lightly in my area for the past half hour to 45 minutes. Well EC doesn't report anything lighter than "Light snow", so its hard to pinpoint the intensity because of that.  

 

I like your signature, haha  .  I'm sure you'll love that Lake Effect snow down in London this Winter, haha. 

 

Edit: Temperature now down to 1.3C at YYZ. 

 

Nice job. Last time YYZ had measurable snow in October was 2010 (on Halloween also). Following winter wasn't so bad. Lightning x2.

[Snowstorms]

Nice job. Last time YYZ had measurable snow in October was 2010 (on Halloween also). Following winter wasn't so bad. Lightning x2.

2010-11 was a far cry from the preceding Winter. I'd take that any day. I'd take any Winter in the 70s expect 79-80 and 72-73. Well atleast were following climatology. On average, were supposed to get 0.5cm in October if i remember correctly.

Keep an eye out for those Lake Temperatures if you want decent LES, haha.

Any thoughts for this Winter?

[on_wx]

Big wet flakes coming down here nothing accumulating right now

[blizzardof96]

Saw a period of SN to +SN around 3am, bringing a Cm or two of accumulation to cars, hedges and grassy surfaces. Lightly snowing right now but bands appear to be moving in from the NW. Most of the overnight snow has melted.

 

[snowstormcanuck]

We're on the board in 2014-15! 1.4cm (0.6") of snow yesterday at Pearson. I woke up around 4am and the rooftops were white.

 

I'll check later but that officially makes Oct 2014 the snowiest October in Toronto in about 20 years. 

[Chicago WX]

We're on the board in 2014-15! 1.4cm (0.6") of snow yesterday at Pearson. I woke up around 4am and the rooftops were white.

 

I'll check later but that officially makes Oct 2014 the snowiest October in Toronto in about 20 years. 

 

 

Very nice. Congrats on the snow, everyone.

[snowstormcanuck]

Saw a period of SN to +SN around 3am, bringing a Cm or two of accumulation to cars, hedges and grassy surfaces. Lightly snowing right now but bands appear to be moving in from the NW. Most of the overnight snow has melted.

Screen Shot 2014-11-01 at 8.19.28 AM.png

 

Damn, i missed that

[blizzardof96]

Damn, i missed that

I just happened to wake up for a minute from a honking car. Probably due to a lack of snow tires and "surprise" conditions for this time of year... many drivers were caught off guard. Snow rates picking up hear in North York as the final band pushes through.

[snowstormcanuck]

Very nice. Congrats on the snow, everyone.

 

Needed it too. This fall, for the first time in my life I feel my passion for this hobby fading. 28 years of the same mediocrity, I've been thinking mother nature has nothing new to show me. Then a slushy coating of snow and the juices start flowing again. Hopefully it doesn't fade.  

[Chicago WX]

Needed it too. This fall, for the first time in my life I feel my passion for this hobby fading. 28 years of the same mediocrity, I've been thinking mother nature has nothing new to show me. Then a slushy coating of snow and the juices start flowing again. Hopefully it doesn't fade.  

 

Nothing like a little early snow...to pull you back in...for now.

[blizzardof96]

Full on +SN beginning to accumulate in spots. This is impressive.

[on_wx]

Probably 2cm fell here. Almost noon and the roofs are still covered

[Toronto4]

Pearson reported another 2.2 cm yesterday. That brings the 2014-15 season total to 3.6 cm.

[snowstormcanuck]

Pearson reported another 2.2 cm yesterday. That brings the 2014-15 season total to 3.6 cm.

 

Building a little compensation fund for the next powdery snow event with wind.

[dan123]

Pearson reported another 2.2 cm yesterday. That brings the 2014-15 season total to 3.6 cm.

Nice!

[harrisale]

Looks like some snow chances Thursday night into Friday as a strengthening low skirts to the south. Looks like a reasonably deep trough but would need some colder air to work with in order to get anything more than wet flurries/a dusting, particularly for anywhere near the lake.

[Snowstorms]

Based on current models, we could be looking at another cold shot next weekend as the PNA goes positive forcing the trough to move further East. Preceding the trough, models show a potential Low Pressure moving through just south of the Great lakes.

 

Though still 5 days out, the potential exists for some possible snow showers in the Great lakes region depending on the track of the system. 

 

ECMWF/GFS 8-10 day comparison. 

 

 

12Z Euro for next Friday-Saturday

 

 

Its intriguing to say the least. Further down the road, a series of storms (Pineapple express) looks to potentially set-up across the West Coast which may imply stormier Weather further East (Colorado Lows). In addition, the AO may go negative (currently positive) past mid-month which follows along to my current thoughts of a colder second half of November, similar to last year. Its still ways out, but I suspect we may see the potential for our first widespread snowfall across Southern ontario past Nov 22. More details will be provided as we get closer. 

[harrisale]

Based on current models, we could be looking at another cold shot next weekend as the PNA goes positive forcing the trough to move further East. Preceding the trough, models show a potential Low Pressure moving through just south of the Great lakes.

 

Though still 5 days out, the potential exists for some possible snow showers in the Great lakes region depending on the track of the system. 

 

ECMWF/GFS 8-10 day comparison. 

 

 

12Z Euro for next Friday-Saturday

 

Its intriguing to say the least. Further down the road, a series of storms (Pineapple express) looks to potentially set-up across the West Coast which may imply stormier Weather further East (Colorado Lows). In addition, the AO may go negative (currently positive) past mid-month which follows along to my current thoughts of a colder second half of November, similar to last year. Its still ways out, but I suspect we may see the potential for our first widespread snowfall across Southern ontario past Nov 22. More details will be provided as we get closer. 

 

Receiving our first significant snow "past Nov 22" isn't really saying much, I'd say that's pretty much climo. Do you mean you suspect we will see significant snow around the Nov. 22nd time frame?

[blizzardof96]

Both the GFS Parallel and the Euro have 6-10" amounts through the Northern GTA with a major gradient along the lake with the Mon-Tues system. Ensembles are onboard... while GEM is north. Given the H5 pattern this swath has potential... not much room for a wave to really amplify with the Anticyclonic WB shifting west out of AK/NWT.

[DAFF]

A swing and a miss here in the tropics of Windsor..... Trends are south but I'm not holding my breath

[harrisale]

Guelph riding the freeze line at the moment but I think I'm in a decent position for at least 5cm.

A swing and a miss here in the tropics of Windsor..... Trends are south but I'm not holding my breath

I wouldn't say the models are trending south right now. There's currently a greater probability of a southern shift than a northern shift, but I wouldn't say we're 'trending' that way.

[harrisale]

Aaaand looks like a north shift on the globals. Cottage country special.

[blizzardof96]

With regards to the LES potential, I am actually pretty excited for Thurs eve into Friday. Delta T's are running well above where they need to be(~13c) with the consensus spitting out 19-21c numbers. Shear is pretty low overall and inversion heights get above 700mb during the time frame mentioned above under a predominantly westerly flow. When these early season setups occur and the flow is strong enough the GTA can see significant squalls via the lake huron connection which the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting.

[BuffaloWeather]

 

With regards to the LES potential, I am actually pretty excited for Thurs eve into Friday. Delta T's are running well above where they need to be(~13c) with the consensus spitting out 19-21c numbers. Shear is pretty low overall and inversion heights get above 700mb during the time frame mentioned above under a predominantly westerly flow. When these early season setups occur and the flow is strong enough the GTA can see significant squalls via the lake huron connection which the GFS/ECMWF are suggesting.

 

 

Agreed. It is getting me a tad excited as well. Lake effect season is the best! From the Buffalo NWS:

 

THE COLD WESTERLY FLOW ACROSS THE LAKES WILL BRING A

THREAT OF LAKE EFFECT SNOW WITH FOCUS AREAS ALONG THE EASTERN LAKE

SHORES. LAKE INDUCED INSTABILITY WILL BE AT EXTREME LEVELS WITH

850MB TEMPS LOWERING BELOW -10C AND LAKE INDUCED EQUILIBRIUM LEVELS

RISING ABOVE 10KFT FROM EARLY THURSDAY THROUGH FRIDAY NIGHT. BUFKIT

PROFILES SHOW DECENT SURFACE TO 700MB MOISTURE COMBINED WITH

SYNOPTIC OMEGA INTERSECTING THE PRIME DENDRITIC SNOW GROWTH REGION

WHICH IS FAVORABLE FOR LAKE SNOW. A SURFACE TROUGH ALSO LOOKS TO

CROSS THE LOWER LAKES THURSDAY NIGHT OR FRIDAY WITH A WIDESPREAD

LIGHT SNOWFALL EXPECTED FOR EVEN THOSE NOT SEEING LAKE EFFECT. WIND

SHEAR AND WIND SHIFTS WILL BE THE KEY TO WHO SEES LAKE SNOW AND WHO

DOES NOT. THIS EVENT WILL BE WATCH OVER THE COMING DAYS BUT HAVE

INCREASED POPS THROUGH THIS PERIOD AS MORE INGREDIENTS ARE COMING

INTO ALIGNMENT. SURFACE RIDGING BUILD OVERHEAD BY SATURDAY WHICH

SHOULD ACT TO SHUT OFF ANY LINGERING LAKE SNOWS.

[on_wx]

We got a solid coating of snow last night between 130-230. Went to bed after that. Probably 1-2cm. Could have been more, hopefully the airport recorded some snow too.

[Snowstorms]

With the first major cold outbreak of the season coming around Thursday-Friday, we could be looking at our first LES outbreak across the region. Lake temperatures as of now are running near normal for Lake Huron/GBay, which could promote stronger bursts of LES given the cold temperatures aloft. For the GTA, the perfect wind pattern could mean the difference between getting just flurries or some accumulations (northern regions). Time to get those Winter tires on, haha. In addition, great post by Blizz96 with regards to the LES. 

 

Furthermore, the storm next weekend is intriguing in my opinion. With the initial cold outbreak preceding the storm, we should have an abundance of cold air in the region for some accumulations if all the pieces come together. The latest GFS has a partial phase going and it ends up being a decent Winter storm for Southern ontario away from the Lakes. 

 

 

 

Across the West Coast we can see a massive PNA ridge courtesy of the +PNA, which allows a massive trough to develop in the East. In addition, we have a -AO across the Arctic which should help drive alot of the Arctic air further south across the East. The NAO is slightly neutral, more east based negative, which is great for snow lovers in Southern Ontario. The two key things here is the PV and the timing. A partial phase as shown on the latest GFS above, would usher in the first snowstorm of the season as the PV dips south. 

 

Following that storm, the GFS shows another LES outbreak as cold Arctic Air wraps around the storm. Winters right on our doorstep boys, haha! 

[on_wx]

SNOW SQUALL WATCH
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 3:22 P.M. EST TUESDAY 11 NOVEMBER 2014.
---------------------------------------------------------------------
SNOW SQUALL WATCH FOR:
=NEW= SAUGEEN SHORES - KINCARDINE - SOUTHERN BRUCE COUNTY
=NEW= BRUCE PENINSULA - SAUBLE BEACH - TOBERMORY
=NEW= OWEN SOUND - BLUE MOUNTAINS - NORTHERN GREY COUNTY
=NEW= MIDLAND - COLDWATER - ORR LAKE
=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA
=NEW= WESTERN ALGONQUIN PARK - LAKE OF TWO RIVERS
=NEW= BURK'S FALLS - BAYFIELD INLET.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==

AN ARCTIC COLD FRONT WILL SWEEP THROUGH SOUTHERN ONTARIO TONIGHT. IN
THE WAKE OF THIS FRONT, COLD AIR AND STRONG WESTERLY WINDS OVER THE
OPEN WATERS OF LAKE HURON AND GEORGIAN BAY WILL RESULT IN THE
DEVELOPMENT OF SNOW SQUALLS WEDNESDAY MORNING THROUGH THURSDAY. THE
HEAVIEST SQUALLS COULD PRODUCE SNOWFALL AMOUNTS OF 10 TO 15 CM PER
12 HOURS ALONG WITH REDUCED VISIBILITIES.

[Torchageddon]

I think today will be the first real day of winter for me, strangely enough I still haven't seen any accumulating snow and missed most of the times when the flakes have been flying while everyone else has had some. I get the feeling this will "correct" itself and something big could be on the way here locally. Maybe this will be a great November weather-wise for once when some decent snows occur (over 60 cm).