Southern Ontario Weather Discussion

[on_wx]

Saw in the weather mailing list that it was forecaster error with the new warning system. Drastic changes from the old system.

On a similar note, I was actually chasing those storms and managed to capture some nice lightning photos.

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/southernonweather/sets/72157643913914763/

 

Thanks, Dave. They'll probably fine tune the new warning system in time. Also great photos to kick off your year of chasing - looking forward to your upcoming work!

[snowstormcanuck]

Sfc temps continue to cool nicely but the cold air is only oozing in aloft. There'll probably be a period of PL/ZR before any changeover to snow.

[dmc76]

Saw in the weather mailing list that it was forecaster error with the new warning system. Drastic changes from the old system.

On a similar note, I was actually chasing those storms and managed to capture some nice lightning photos.

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/southernonweather/sets/72157643913914763/

 

Awesome pics! damn

[on_wx]

CYKF now reporting SNRA and temp of 0. Not seeing any snow out here, but rain has picked up and sounds like some ice pellets

[blizzardof96]

Im in the middle east for a little over a week so going to miss this one. Could be pretty interesting with a brief ZR/PL period like SSC has mentioned before we go over to some moderate and perhaps heavy snow. Should be a very interesting system for april. High here today is 28c.... but im a snowfall weenie at heart.

NAM WRF has some imbedded defo-banding with perhaps some CSI inside the cold sector. Rates are going to be sexy for a while.

[snowstormcanuck]

Im in the middle east for a little over a week so going to miss this one. Could be pretty interesting with a brief ZR/PL period like SSC has mentioned before we go over to some moderate and perhaps heavy snow. Should be a very interesting system for april. High here today is 28c.... but im a snowfall weenie at heart.

NAM WRF has some imbedded defo-banding with perhaps some CSI inside the cold sector. Rates are going to be sexy for a while.

image.jpg

 

Have a safe trip.

 

Non-paved ground completely whitened per highway cams.

[Snowstorms]

Snowing pretty decently outside. Pavements are free of any snow, but grassy areas are completely covered. A good 2.5cm so far.

Temperature is -1.1C at my house.

[snowstormcanuck]

Snowing pretty decently outside. Pavements are free of any snow, but grassy areas are completely covered. A good 2.5cm so far.

Temperature is -1.1C at my house.

 

Cams around the airport show a solid white covering. I'd say at least a couple of cms down there as well.

 

Band moving in from the west is probably going to be the highlight of this storm. Savour it. Last intense snow for at least 7 or 8 months.

[on_wx]

5cm down had a burst of +SN last 20 min

[snowstormcanuck]

YYZ 1/2SM visibility in SN.

[Snowstorms]

Cams around the airport show a solid white covering. I'd say at least a couple of cms down there as well.

Band moving in from the west is probably going to be the highlight of this storm. Savour it. Last intense snow for at least 7 or 8 months.

LOL. Its coming down at a good clip right now. About 4.1cm down. Grass is completely covered, you can't see it anymore. Its nice but after this, its time for winter to go and for spring to stay, lol.

[Snowstorms]

Ended up with 5.1cm. Not bad. Its still intact on grassy surfaces. Temperature down to -2.0C in my area.

[YHM Supercell]

Thanks, Dave. They'll probably fine tune the new warning system in time. Also great photos to kick off your year of chasing - looking forward to your upcoming work!

All the alert types (from what I know, except Special Weather Statements) are now in a unified warngen called WARP2. The templates seem pretty good, and the system seems to have a lot of potential. I suppose it is up to the forecasters to do the rest. Some fairly good warnings have been issued by EC with the new system so it is definitely capable...

 

By the way, thanks for the comments. Not a bad way to kick of a hopefully good storm season

[on_wx]

Chilly morning

 

UPDATED WEATHER SUMMARY FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO AND THE

NATIONAL CAPITAL REGION ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 3:24 P.M. EDT WEDNESDAY 16 APRIL 2014.

UNSEASONABLY COLD AIR OVER SOUTHERN ONTARIO RESULTED IN A NUMBER OF
LOW TEMPERATURE RECORDS BEING BROKEN THIS MORNING.

THE FOLLOWING IS A SUMMARY OF WEATHER EVENT INFORMATION RECEIVED BY
ENVIRONMENT CANADA.

LOCATION                    MORNING LOW TEMPERATURE

WINDSOR                     -4.8 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -2.8 C IN 1962)
SARNIA                      -7.0 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -5.0 C IN 1962)
LONDON                      -7.8 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -5.7 C IN 1980)
KITCHENER                   -8.5 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -6.7 C IN 1928)
HAMILTON                    -8.2 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -5.0 C IN 1980)
TORONTO (PEARSON)           -6.9 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -5.6 C IN 1980)
OSHAWA                      -7.1 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -4.5 C IN 1980)
ST CATHARINES               -4.0 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -3.9 C IN 1980)
MUSKOKA                     -14.4 C (PREVIOUS RECORD -11.7 C IN 1943)
PETERBOROUGH                -7.5 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -7.4 C IN 1980)
TRENTON                     -6.4 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -6.1 C IN 1963)
PETAWAWA                    -13.4 C (PREVIOUS RECORD -9.2 C IN 1980)
OTTAWA                      -9.5 C  (PREVIOUS RECORD -8.3 C IN 1939)

PLEASE NOTE THAT THIS SUMMARY MAY CONTAIN PRELIMINARY OR UNOFFICIAL
INFORMATION AND DOES NOT CONSTITUTE A COMPLETE OR FINAL REPORT.

END

 

 

[on_wx]

Posted this over in the 'favourite tornado video' thread of this subforum. Screencap of the Goderich tornado from amateur storm chaser footage as it was in the town. Incredible. Through the video the storm chaser follows the tornado and you can see destroyed houses. Tornado at 1:20

 

[Toronto4]

Wow, nick of time. I hope you're right.

In the nick of time is right. 2.9 cm for the 14th (observer likely took measurement around 10-11 am on the 15th). 151.6 cm for the season.

[snowstormcanuck]

In the nick of time is right. 2.9 cm for the 14th (observer likely took measurement around 10-11 am on the 15th). 151.6 cm for the season.

 

Yup. We'll see if snow for Feb 20th ever gets added once quality control is done. Otherwise, that's a wrap for 2013-14. 

[on_wx]

No snow and this thread had dropped right off! 

 

CYKF came in at 75.6" or 6'3 of snow for the season.

 

Looking forward to severe weather season and I hope to see you guys here again when the active weather picks up! 

[harrisale]

Storm risk for tomorrow (Thursday) looks marginal at best in ON. Extreme SW Ontario could see some action along the warm front but so far guidance has been consistent with poor instability in the region.

 

Decent yet conditional risk for some storms in the warm sector on Friday before the cold front passes in the evening. Models showing a shortwave moving through the warm sector around 18-21Z on Friday. If skies can clear prior to this passage, things could get interesting. Otherwise, again instability seems to be pretty marginal and weak dewpoints will likely prevent any storms from becoming surface-based.

[blizzardof96]

Not a bad looking sounding for friday evening around YXU. If the vort timing slows down by ~3hrs and skies can clear in the early aft, I think some interesting severe wx potential is on the table. DP's are well into the 60's and T/td spreads are rather small with LCL's AOB 850mb south of the warm front. The tornado threat is likely low given the veered sfc winds and not very impressive speed shear, but wind/hail could get pretty interesting given the BL moisture, low freezing levels and decent CAPE values.

[snowstormcanuck]

Does anyone know where to find the severe weather forecasts issued by EC on their homepage? It used to be under the special weather statement section but now that SWSs have been merged onto the warning page I'm not sure where to find them.

[blizzardof96]

Does anyone know where to find the severe weather forecasts issued by EC on their homepage? It used to be under the special weather statement section but now that SWSs have been merged onto the warning page I'm not sure where to find them.

This link should work well. It constantly refreshes as EC updates statements.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ac/accn10.cwto..txt

[Torchageddon]

Well it was another extremely embarrassing day for Environment Canada. I'm pretty much out of ideas as to what is going on, but man did they ever make me chuckle today. It was even worse than their warnings output back mid-late last decade. I really thought all that was behind us but it came back in a big way for those watching things unfold. Here is the breakdown:

 

4:00 pm or so - EC issues severe thunderstorm watches

 

4:42 pm - EC issues warnings for mid-western Ontario for severe thunderstorms with high straight line winds

 

5:30 - 5:50 pm - The thunderstorm comes to MBY and it had some really neat shelf features with dark clouds, etc. The winds were alright with some heavy rain but nothing outstanding or notable...at least not that memorable except the cloud features in which I took pics of. Severe criteria was not met but this has happened countless times over the years

 

6:10 pm - Squall line continues further into eastern Ontario like Fergus, Kitchener, Blue Mountain, etc. while I'm just getting light rain from the back-edge which always happens

 

6:20 - 6:28 pm - A tornado warning is issued for a sizable chunk of mid-western Ontario including southern Grey county, and small areas of western counties that surround the eastern half of Grey. This is the incredibly dumb part, the squall line was already well past most areas in this warning except the far east communities. There was only light rain falling in the warned regions where the atmosphere was tapped out of energy and any significant rotation impossible. I heard on TWN that there was a call-in report of a landspout tornado but really it would have to be pretty brief. Not only that, there probably was no spout and it was a mistake or prank. The part where I really did a facepalm was when watching TWN coverage and them trying to explain the TOR warning, the presenter named the towns in the warning including mine and said "get to your underground shelter NOW"   I don't know what anyone was thinking (they weren't). I bet they knew in their minds this was nonsense but couldn't do anything about it. If the mets and staff at the NWS offices in tornado alley were watching this unfold, they would be crying with laugher, on the floor and unable to breathe due to the sheer silliness. The situation if it was in the US wouldn't even get severe warned, let alone TOR warned. The level of complacency that must be building for us here is likely enormous because we're getting warnings for light rains at this point.  Its going to take a weather expert to realize when there is true danger instead of relying on EC which is quite frankly disturbing and unacceptable.

 

6:45 pm - The tornado warning is dropped like a hot potato and was dropped so fast that when TWN put their warning map back on it was already gone before they could toss the slide from the segment  . Someone over there must have realized what a mistake it was to pull that and took it off with great haste. After all that I'm  .

 

6:52 pm - If everything that just took place wasn't enough, I'm stunned to see EC's next joke: They re-issue the severe thunderstorm warning in areas well, well past the squall line!!   A million facepalms would not do this justice. We literally had light to nil rain at this point! There was nothing at all of note on radar nor would there be. The storm was over 1.5 hours ago...just why? This was the cherry on top.

 

I doubt very many people in southern Ontario got these high winds that were predicted...maybe some local severe winds. I didn't expect much but got some good shots. The TWN was hyping some aspects including hail until Mark R had to keep saying he saw none at all. There was some bowing occurring on the line when it was nearing Rock Falls and Barrie but I was right in the start of that evolution and nothing crazy happened. I couldn't access the computer at the time this was happening so I don't have the text of the TOR warning or maps. Showing it and the radar data side-by-side would be real comedy. So what are the chances of a tornado or spin-up long after a squall line has past and there is just moderate rain behind it? Has it ever happened?

 

Did anyone else see this madness?

[snowstormcanuck]

This link should work well. It constantly refreshes as EC updates statements.

http://weather.noaa.gov/pub/data/raw/ac/accn10.cwto..txt

 

Thanks. I guess that's it. But there's very little discussion compared to how I remember it.

[snowstormcanuck]

Well it was another extremely embarrassing day for Environment Canada. I'm pretty much out of ideas as to what is going on, but man did they ever make me chuckle today. It was even worse than their warnings output back mid-late last decade. I really thought all that was behind us but it came back in a big way for those watching things unfold. Here is the breakdown:

 

4:00 pm or so - EC issues severe thunderstorm watches

 

4:42 pm - EC issues warnings for mid-western Ontario for severe thunderstorms with high straight line winds

 

5:30 - 5:50 pm - The thunderstorm comes to MBY and it had some really neat shelf features with dark clouds, etc. The winds were alright with some heavy rain but nothing outstanding or notable...at least not that memorable except the cloud features in which I took pics of. Severe criteria was not met but this has happened countless times over the years

 

6:10 pm - Squall line continues further into eastern Ontario like Fergus, Kitchener, Blue Mountain, etc. while I'm just getting light rain from the back-edge which always happens

 

6:20 - 6:28 pm - A tornado warning is issued for a sizable chunk of mid-western Ontario including southern Grey county, and small areas of western counties that surround the eastern half of Grey. This is the incredibly dumb part, the squall line was already well past most areas in this warning except the far east communities. There was only light rain falling in the warned regions where the atmosphere was tapped out of energy and any significant rotation impossible. I heard on TWN that there was a call-in report of a landspout tornado but really it would have to be pretty brief. Not only that, there probably was no spout and it was a mistake or prank. The part where I really did a facepalm was when watching TWN coverage and them trying to explain the TOR warning, the presenter named the towns in the warning including mine and said "get to your underground shelter NOW"   I don't know what anyone was thinking (they weren't). I bet they knew in their minds this was nonsense but couldn't do anything about it. If the mets and staff at the NWS offices in tornado alley were watching this unfold, they would be crying with laugher, on the floor and unable to breathe due to the sheer silliness. The situation if it was in the US wouldn't even get severe warned, let alone TOR warned. The level of complacency that must be building for us here is likely enormous because we're getting warnings for light rains at this point.  Its going to take a weather expert to realize when there is true danger instead of relying on EC which is quite frankly disturbing and unacceptable.

 

6:45 pm - The tornado warning is dropped like a hot potato and was dropped so fast that when TWN put their warning map back on it was already gone before they could toss the slide from the segment  . Someone over there must have realized what a mistake it was to pull that and took it off with great haste. After all that I'm  .

 

6:52 pm - If everything that just took place wasn't enough, I'm stunned to see EC's next joke: They re-issue the severe thunderstorm warning in areas well, well past the squall line!!   A million facepalms would not do this justice. We literally had light to nil rain at this point! There was nothing at all of note on radar nor would there be. The storm was over 1.5 hours ago...just why? This was the cherry on top.

 

I doubt very many people in southern Ontario got these high winds that were predicted...maybe some local severe winds. I didn't expect much but got some good shots. The TWN was hyping some aspects including hail until Mark R had to keep saying he saw none at all. There was some bowing occurring on the line when it was nearing Rock Falls and Barrie but I was right in the start of that evolution and nothing crazy happened. I couldn't access the computer at the time this was happening so I don't have the text of the TOR warning or maps. Showing it and the radar data side-by-side would be real comedy. So what are the chances of a tornado or spin-up long after a squall line has past and there is just moderate rain behind it? Has it ever happened?

 

Did anyone else see this madness?

 

Tornado warning was mentioned briefly on the evening news here in Toronto but I don't recall much detail (although, I wasn't paying particularly close attention to be honest. TV was on just as background noise).

 

We should be very happy that we have the capacity to assess EC's forecasts/warnings and come to our own conclusions about their accuracy. For the 97% of the population that relies on them, or other inadequate sources, I can imagine it'd be very frustrating.

[Torchageddon]

So its official, Ontario (and Canada?) had its first tornado of 2014 in Mildmay yesterday between 5:00 pm and 5:30 pm. That is basically in my backyard as Mildmay is just 17 minutes away from me  . I was closely watching the storm and there was nothing threatening so its one of those unpredictable type spin-ups. What a honor to have the first 'nado in south Bruce county and the 2nd one in 7 years    .

 

It was a low end EF1 that went 2 km and was 150 metres wide at peak.

 

http://www.thepost.on.ca/2014/05/14/tornado-confirmed-in-mildmay

[on_wx]

Tornado warning was mentioned briefly on the evening news here in Toronto but I don't recall much detail (although, I wasn't paying particularly close attention to be honest. TV was on just as background noise).

 

We should be very happy that we have the capacity to assess EC's forecasts/warnings and come to our own conclusions about their accuracy. For the 97% of the population that relies on them, or other inadequate sources, I can imagine it'd be very frustrating.

 

The warning wasn't very detailed either. Downsview will never get over the 'tracking through the regions' or 'above mentioned regions' instead of listing off locations impacted include like every other EC office. Also we really need to get away from the warning regions. Including major towns, cities, or landmarks in every warning region name was EC's major development back in 2003 to help people identify where they live, instead of using county-based warnings. It creates more problems than it helps prevent. Hanover was never near the tornado during the warning, but all social and broadcast media were all 'Hanover needs to be in a basement!'. Not like anyone could know though, especially considering Downsview does not use locations impacted as they heavily rely on warning region names, as already stated.

 

 

TORNADO WARNING

FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 5:54 P.M. EDT TUESDAY 13 MAY 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING - REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

      HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

UPDATED OR ENDED BY 6:29 P.M. EDT.

AT 5:54 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A

THUNDERSTORM THAT IS POSSIBLY PRODUCING A TORNADO.

A POTENTIAL TORNADO IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY.

 

* The southern Grey County warning region cuts a not-straight line across Grey County. No one could ever know this unless they did serious research. EC defines southern Grey County as being more north than the other part of southern Grey County. The tornado rotation was in northern Grey County forecast region for most of the tornado warning duration which makes no sense warning-wise.

 

 

TORNADO WARNING

FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 6:09 P.M. EDT TUESDAY 13 MAY 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

TORNADO WARNING FOR:

      HANOVER - DUNDALK - SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY.

TORNADO WARNING - REPLACES SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

      MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

UPDATED OR ENDED BY 6:39 P.M. EDT.

AT 6:09 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A

THUNDERSTORM THAT IS POSSIBLY PRODUCING A TORNADO.

 

THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE

REGIONS.

 

[blizzardof96]

Thanks. I guess that's it. But there's very little discussion compared to how I remember it.

Ya I noticed that as well. Not sure if they will ramp up detail as we get towards more significant outbreaks and peak season draws closer. Would hope so.

[on_wx]

Ya I noticed that as well. Not sure if they will ramp up detail as we get towards more significant outbreaks and peak season draws closer. Would hope so.

 

Bigger outbreaks= blanket warnings

[Torchageddon]

 

The warning wasn't very detailed either. Downsview will never get over the 'tracking through the regions' or 'above mentioned regions' instead of listing off locations impacted include like every other EC office. Also we really need to get away from the warning regions. Including major towns, cities, or landmarks in every warning region name was EC's major development back in 2003 to help people identify where they live, instead of using county-based warnings. It creates more problems than it helps prevent. Hanover was never near the tornado during the warning, but all social and broadcast media were all 'Hanover needs to be in a basement!'. Not like anyone could know though, especially considering Downsview does not use locations impacted as they heavily rely on warning region names, as already stated.

Great post, seems like you followed the insanity. Also wanted to see the warning text. If what you posted is all accurate about how the warning progressed, that is even more ludicrous than I first thought!  . I was in Hanover and it was on the far western edge of the warning when I saw the map so at an astounding time of 6:36 pm or so when TWN said "Rock Mills, Holstein, Hanover...get to your underground shelter NOW" I was laughing at how absurd that was. That's 1 hour and 10 minutes after the squall line had passed! If you were in Hanover during the entire time that warning was up like myself, your jaw would be on the floor at the sheer idiocy of that decision to warn us. Conditions at that time were the furthest thing from being conducive to producing a tornado (energy used mostly up by moderate rain and the squall line) and likely very close to scientifically impossible.

 

Its odd how that map showing the line where rotation was noted (if not "northern Grey county" then) was not close to the actual spin-up near Mildmay. That means there was no warning for the location where the tornado occurred and when a warning came, it was in a different county but still too east-based! The "A POTENTIAL TORNADO IS TRACKING ACROSS SOUTHERN GREY COUNTY." 30 minutes after it dissipated is too funny and sad. Plus, there were no more storms to "track" so what gives? Its light rain!! Cry wolf syndrome anyone?  The sparse information is bad, that must change too. Their def of what southern Grey county is, is unreal.

 

When they re-issued the tornado warning (shouldn't have happened of course for Hanover and nearby towns), they put this gem in the text, "THUNDERSTORMS WITH POSSIBLE TORNADOES ARE MOVING EASTWARD ACROSS THE REGIONS."  If you consider some light to moderate rains on the back edge of the squall line and overcast skies with nil energy left, I guess so! Did they just get the counties and regions wrong because if I were heading up EC whoever issued all this would not be working there anymore afterwards.

 

I'm thinking now that is just about the worst thing I've seen out of EC in my life, I still can't believe it. Can't be just a mistake, it's systemic. I said during the winter that someone on here or another weather enthusiast/met needs to go to Downsview in person and ask what is going on...now I echo that louder still.