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Southern Ontario Weather Discussion

snowstormcanuck

By snowstormcanuck,
in Lakes/Ohio Valley

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Just checked Waterloo a few minutes ago, knew you'd be here posting about it. I'm only in the 25-38 km/h range currently. Smells like spring bigtime. I also found that Waterloo's March was the 2nd coldest on record (!) and the 3rd driest as well going back to 1915 with Kitchener's database that I'm currently working with to get 20ºC first occurrences.

 

Awesome let us know what you find out! 

 

Also, did anyone notice that EC has launched the new warning sets nation-wide back on April 8th? Fog advisory was issued yesterday which is part of a bunch of new advisory sets.

 

FOG ADVISORY

FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

ISSUED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 10:22 P.M. EDT THURSDAY 10 APRIL 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

FOG ADVISORY FOR:

=NEW= MOUNT FOREST - ARTHUR - NORTHERN WELLINGTON COUNTY

=NEW= DUFFERIN - INNISFIL

=NEW= GREY - BRUCE

=NEW= BARRIE - ORILLIA - MIDLAND

=NEW= FENELON FALLS - BALSAM LAKE PARK - NORTHERN KAWARTHA LAKES

=NEW= APSLEY - WOODVIEW - NORTHERN PETERBOROUGH COUNTY

=NEW= BANCROFT - BON ECHO PARK

=NEW= PARRY SOUND - MUSKOKA

=NEW= HALIBURTON

=NEW= RENFREW - PEMBROKE - BARRY'S BAY

=NEW= ALGONQUIN.

---------------------------------------------------------------------

==DISCUSSION==

FOG CONDITIONS - LATE EVENING TO EARLY MORNING.

NEAR ZERO VISIBLITY IN FOG IS EXPECTED OR OCCURRING OVER SOME AREAS.

DENSE FOG IS FORMING IN MANY AREAS DUE TO RECENT RAINS AND FALLING

TEMPERATURES TONIGHT WITH LIGHT WINDS. VISILIBILITIES 100 METRES OR

LESS HAVE BEEN REPORTED BY ONTARIO PROVINCIAL POLICE ESPECIALLY IN

AREAS WHERE FIELDS HAVE SNOW PACK.

TRAVEL IS EXPECTED TO BE HAZARDOUS DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITY IN SOME

LOCATIONS.

WEATHER ADVISORIES FOR FOG ARE ISSUED WHEN NEAR ZERO VISIBILITIES IN

FOG ARE EXPECTED OR OCCURRING.

ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS WILL UPDATE ALERTS AS REQUIRED, SO

STAY TUNED TO YOUR LOCAL MEDIA OR WEATHERADIO. EMAIL REPORTS OF

SEVERE WEATHER TO STORM.ONTARIO(AT)EC.GC.CA OR TWEET WITH THE HASHTAG

(HASH)ONSTORM.

 

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Torchageddon

Torchageddon

Posted
Posted

Awesome let us know what you find out! 

 

Also, did anyone notice that EC has launched the new warning sets nation-wide back on April 8th? Fog advisory was issued yesterday which is part of a bunch of new advisory sets.

Thanks, I'm up to 1936 currently so 21 years done. I talked about 1919 already which is one amazing spring and summer period. The highest temperature on the first day that has 20ºC or above tends to be between 20.0ºC - 22.0ºC not surprisingly with the highest thus far 26.1ºC in 1936. Something odd though is the same exact numbers keep coming up from the record down to the decimal like for example 22.2ºC, 20.0ºC, 21.7ºC, and 22.8ºC keep coming up like 4+ times each just in 21 years span. The weather station might have had issues with exact readings and got stuck on certain values is my guess. There was a very long streak of April being the month from 1926 to 1935. Two years had May being the month so far. Lastly, the 1930s dustbowl era had very late first 20ºC readings generally, right at the end of April: 3 of them on either April 30 or May 1 (1936).

 

That fog on Thursday night must have been rural, didn't see any. More grass is showing after a glacier sat on it for many months and what is left is pretty striking. Friday I saw some center parts of lawns and I have never seen the state these grassy areas are in right now in my life. It is so compressed and dead, with tons of dirt and sand everywhere. It has a pretty weird texture too. Above all, its incredibly muddy and disheveled to the point it looks like a tilled plot. A lot of low bushes and shrubs are squashed down. Main streets of towns in the snowbelt have side grass areas just plastered with black dirt, sand, oil, you name it. Then in the backyard, there is this cobweb like layer on huge swaths of grass that I haven't seen before. Insects were trying hard to survive.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

Always suspicious of rain to snow events, especially in mid-April, but there seems to be growing consensus that we'll get a burst of SN/PL Tuesday morning. NAM is especially aggressive with the cooling at the surface. Drops us from the mid teens at 0z Tuesday to around -5 by 12z.

It's definitely going to be an interesting couple of days weather-wise. 22 degrees today to potentially minus 8 on Wednesday morning. Pretty incredible stuff, if it comes to pass.

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on_wx

on_wx

Posted
Posted

Not to nitpick, but did anyone else notice how many tries it took Environment Canada to issue the severe thunderstorm warnings last night? They also said 'Chatham County' which has never existed. This isn't the first time this has happened, as last year it took them many tries to issue tornado warnings across Grey and Simcoe Counties including the city of Barrie.

 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO

UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA
AT 9:08 P.M. EDT SATURDAY 12 APRIL 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

=NEW= WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY

      SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.
 

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
      CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
UPDATED OR ENDED BY 10:18 P.M. EDT.

AT 9:08 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.
 

AT 9:00 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF
SARNIA INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IS MOVING TO THE EASTWARD AT 50

KM/H. THE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90
KM/H AND 2 CM HAIL.

 

 

 

 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 9:09 P.M. EDT SATURDAY 12 APRIL 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

=NEW= CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:
      SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY

      WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
UPDATED OR ENDED BY 11:18 P.M. EDT.

AT 9:09 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A

SEVERE THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING VERY STRONG WIND GUSTS AND
DIME TO NICKEL SIZE HAIL.

AT 9:00 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF
SARNIA INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IS MOVING TO THE EASTWARD AT 50
KM/H. THE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 90
KM/H AND 2 CM HAIL.

 

 
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING
FOR SOUTHERN ONTARIO
UPDATED BY ENVIRONMENT CANADA

AT 9:15 P.M. EDT SATURDAY 12 APRIL 2014.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING FOR:

=NEW= SARNIA - PETROLIA - WESTERN LAMBTON COUNTY
=NEW= WATFORD - PINERY PARK - EASTERN LAMBTON COUNTY.


SEVERE THUNDERSTORM WARNING ENDED FOR:

      CHATHAM-KENT - RONDEAU PARK.

---------------------------------------------------------------------
==DISCUSSION==
UPDATED OR ENDED BY 11:21 P.M. EDT.

AT 9:15 P.M. EDT, ENVIRONMENT CANADA METEOROLOGISTS ARE TRACKING A
DANGEROUS THUNDERSTORM CAPABLE OF PRODUCING DAMAGING WIND GUSTS AND
QUARTER TO TOONIE SIZE HAIL.

AT 9:10 PM RADAR SHOWS A LINE OF SEVERE THUNDERSTORMS FROM SOUTH OF

SARNIA INTO NORTHERN CHATHAM COUNTY IS MOVING TO THE EASTWARD AT 50

KM/H. THE THUNDERSTORM HAS A HISTORY OF WIND GUSTS IN EXCESS OF 110
KM/H AND 2 TO 3 CM HAIL.

 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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Posted

Shot this video and pics today of the Grand River at the West Montrose covered bridge. Water was running high and fast.

 

 

1L24ZxK.jpg

 

 

Xf2YTie.jpg

 

vBEdr8U.jpg

 

Nice pics. Right up your alley I'm sure.

 

Given the slow melt and the overall dry early spring we've had I thought we'd avoid most of this. Although I *think* this is a flood prone area that'll flood even in better years.

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harrisale

harrisale

Posted
Posted

Nice pics. Right up your alley I'm sure.

 

Given the slow melt and the overall dry early spring we've had I thought we'd avoid most of this. Although I *think* this is a flood prone area that'll flood even in better years.

 

Yeah it was pretty awesome to see the Grand running so high. Very powerful river when it gets going. That area is flood prone but most residents said they hadn't seen the river that high in quite some years so that was neat. Snow took longer to melt in the upper portions of the watershed and Saturday night's rains really set things off.

 

19 degrees celsius at YYZ currently with wind gusts to 70 km/hr.

 

Almost feels like there will be wind damage reports within 100 km of GTA.

 

Very potent feel to the air here.

 

There was a 94 km/h gust recorded at 11:35am at YYZ today. Went for a walk at lunch and trees were really swaying hard.

 

I'm sure this has happened before, but I can't recall such a drastic change in recent memory.

 

attachicon.gifschizo.jpg

 

The record low for today is -7.8C. Not sure what it is for tomorrow but we may come close to breaking it.

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

15z SREF mean bullish yet. 4" of snow at YYZ. GFS is similar. SREF had a good run earlier this winter but in March it was consistently too heavy with the snow. I think EC's call of 2" is a good bet for Toronto.

The grounds fairly warm with all the warm temperatures and day time heating that we've been seeing as well. I think 4" of qpf will fall but only 3-5cm of it will stick. Quite the temperature change in less than 24 hours, wow. Impressive to say the least!

I was out in my shorts today too. Now its back to the parka :(. The winds were crazy today.

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

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The grounds fairly warm with all the warm temperatures and day time heating that we've been seeing as well. I think 4" of qpf will fall but only 3-5cm of it will stick. Quite the temperature change in less than 24 hours, wow. Impressive to say the least!

I was out in my shorts today too. Now its back to the parka :(. The winds were crazy today.

 

I wish we were in store for 4" of QPF. ;)

 

Models usually are too quick with the transition so I'm in agreement that we may loose some of the QPF to rain or a mixture but I have been impressed with the precipitous fall in temps. Hit 22c just before noon at YYZ and now down to 6c (including dropping 8 degrees in the last two hours).

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YHM Supercell

YHM Supercell

Posted
Posted

Not to nitpick, but did anyone else notice how many tries it took Environment Canada to issue the severe thunderstorm warnings last night? They also said 'Chatham County' which has never existed. This isn't the first time this has happened, as last year it took them many tries to issue tornado warnings across Grey and Simcoe Counties including the city of Barrie.

 
 

 

 

 

Saw in the weather mailing list that it was forecaster error with the new warning system. Drastic changes from the old system.

On a similar note, I was actually chasing those storms and managed to capture some nice lightning photos.

 

https://www.flickr.com/photos/southernonweather/sets/72157643913914763/

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Toronto4

Toronto4

Posted
Posted

I think the downtown observation station is shuttered up for the winter. What a joke. * next to the 2013-14 number.

Actually the observer at the U of T station (and at some other stations--like London Airport) has to take and record readings up until and including April 15th. It's part of the contract, I think, between Environment Canada and Trinity College at the U of T. So fingers crossed that the observer measures tomorrow's snowfall, which would be the last reading for the 2013-14 season. Any snowfalls after April 15th won't be measured.

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Ottawa Blizzard

Ottawa Blizzard

Posted
Posted

I'm sure this has happened before, but I can't recall such a drastic change in recent memory.

 

attachicon.gifschizo.jpg

Looks like my memory has served me well. April 6-7, 1997 saw a similar temperature plunge. 22c on the 6th, snow flurries the morning of the 7th.

 

http://climate.weather.gc.ca/climateData/dailydata_e.html?timeframe=2&Prov=&StationID=5097&mlyRange=1937-01-01|2012-12-01&Year=1997&cmdB1=Go&Month=4&Day=7

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Snowstorms

Snowstorms

Posted
Posted

I wish we were in store for 4" of QPF. ;)

 

Models usually are too quick with the transition so I'm in agreement that we may loose some of the QPF to rain or a mixture but I have been impressed with the precipitous fall in temps. Hit 22c just before noon at YYZ and now down to 6c (including dropping 8 degrees in the last two hours).

 

Quite the impressive drop, indeed! It was really nice out this afternoon before the rain moved in. Besides the wind, alot of people were extremely happy with today's and yesterday's weather, lol. The snow tomorrow is going to be aggravating for many who just want Winter to be over, lol. For once I actually agree with the Spring lovers, haha.  

 

Its now down to 5C as of 10pm. 

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snowstormcanuck

snowstormcanuck

Posted
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Posted

Actually the observer at the U of T station (and at some other stations--like London Airport) has to take and record readings up until and including April 15th. It's part of the contract, I think, between Environment Canada and Trinity College at the U of T. So fingers crossed that the observer measures tomorrow's snowfall, which would be the last reading for the 2013-14 season. Any snowfalls after April 15th won't be measured.

 

Wow, nick of time. I hope you're right.

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