Torchageddon Posted April 4, 2014 Share Posted April 4, 2014 Even in the coldest winter in 25 years, it won't snow in April. I already got snow this month (barely, overnight April 1), likely to get 2-4 cm overnight today with high winds. I got decent snow near April 6, 2009 (10 cm) and last May I got less than 1 cm of snow on May 12 via LES. After figuring out what 1997 brought in terms of local weather, its time to find out what winter 1997-1998 was like. I'm also interested in what the latest and/or earliest 20ºC temperature reading was at Waterloo or Kitchener of any given year. The UW weather station contest has their own going back to 1998 but I will go through the weather station that has records going back to 1913 or something. I'm very invested to see what 2014's first 20ºC reading is because there is no sign of a temp. close to that anywhere in the mid-range and even long range if I were betting. During the previous 15 years, its always occurred before April 20th and I doubt this year will have one before that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Even in the coldest winter in 25 years, it won't snow in April. You're forgetting the snow we received last April (around the 11th I believe) as well as the snow/ice event of April 2003. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Even in the coldest winter in 25 years, it won't snow in April. April 20, 2013 here in town Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Mood Flakes flying this morning, picked up a trace overnight. Current windchill of -7c. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 When I said "it won't snow in April" I meant appreciable snow. Something you can shovel. Not the nuisance stuff. I haven't shovelled snow in April since 2003 I think and even that was technically PL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 Neither Environment Canada nor The Weather Network are hinting at any possibility of frozen precipitation in Toronto or Ottawa early this upcoming week, despite what the GFS is showing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 When I said "it won't snow in April" I meant appreciable snow. Something you can shovel. Not the nuisance stuff. I haven't shovelled snow in April since 2003 I think and even that was technically PL. Point taken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 Neither Environment Canada nor The Weather Network are hinting at any possibility of frozen precipitation in Toronto or Ottawa early this upcoming week, despite what the GFS is showing. It's showing virtually no snow for Toronto. 0c 850 line as a demarcation line between RA/SN doesn't work in April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 It's showing virtually no snow for Toronto. 0c 850 line as a demarcation line between RA/SN doesn't work in April. Or january for that matter if 925's are above zero. Were going to need a track along or east of the pittsburgh to rochester corridor if we want measurable snow here in TO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 12z euro is coming SE compared to 0z. Track near columbus at hour 60 as opposed to being on the central OH/IN border. Ends up tracking south of cleveland and east towards ROC, with some wet snow on the backside as 850's crash between -2 and -4c. Could end up picking up a couple inches if the cold air can move in fast enough, but well see what happens. Hopefully the mesos can handle some of the thermals with more clarity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 5, 2014 Share Posted April 5, 2014 When I said "it won't snow in April" I meant appreciable snow. Something you can shovel. Not the nuisance stuff. I haven't shovelled snow in April since 2003 I think and even that was technically PL. What happened in 2003? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 5, 2014 Author Share Posted April 5, 2014 What happened in 2003? April 3-5 ice pellet/ice storm. Dropped 4-5" of ice pellets mixed with freezing rain in Toronto. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 10:26 PM EDT Sunday 06 April 2014 Special weather statement in effect for: City of Toronto A moisture-laden Texas low is setting it's sights on Southern Ontario. A disturbance near the gulf coast is forecast to intensify and track toward the Lower Great Lakes on Monday. The most likely trajectory is across Ohio then the extreme Lower Great Lakes Monday night. Rain is expected to develop over parts of Southern Ontario during the day Monday, reaching Georgian Bay in the evening. A significant general rainfall of 15 to 25 mm is likely over much of Southern and Eastern Ontario with the heavier amounts likely closer to lakes Erie and Ontario. Rainfall warnings may be issued as the heavier axis of rainfall becomes more certain. The rain will likely change to a heavy wet snow Monday evening mainly over the higher terrain of the Dundalk and Haliburton Highlands. A significant accumulation of 5 to 10 centimetres appears likely in these areas before it tapers off early Tuesday. Locally heavier amounts are possible, especially over the higher ground southwest of Collingwood including flesherton, Singhampton and Shelburne, as well as Bancroft through Algonquin Park. Snowfall warnings may be required. On a more spring-like note, the warmest weather of the season is likely on Thursday to the south of Georgian Bay, quickly erasing any memory of the snow on Monday night. Temperatures are expected to climb into the mid to upper teens, but will likely be more muted east of Georgian Bay. Please monitor the latest forecasts and warnings from Environment Canada at WWW.WEATHER.GC.CA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 That SWS from EC was kind of amusing because they say that Thursday is going to erase any memory of the snow Monday...well not for me because its going to be windy and rainy the whole day when it gets to 2014's highest temperature thus far... When I was doing the start of my collection for a list of first 20ºC days in Kitchener-Waterloo starting with 1915, along the way during the first 5 Springs I saw some crazy things but by far the most unusual was 1919. There were several things about it that are incredible, the first was April 19-24 it was a very nice stretch of warm weather being in the mid to high teens. I found a triple reading of 18.3ºC on the 22, 23, and 24 which might be the longest consecutive same temp. I've seen thus far. That was crazy enough, but then on the 25th it dropped sharply to 0.0ºC for a high!! On top of that, 5.1 cm of snow fell which for K-W is extremely impressive for late April and 1919's only snow that month. April 1919 was above average with avg rainfall. Then the point pertaining to my stat mining was the first 20ºC day in Kitchener was May 13 when it got to 22.8ºC!!!! There were close calls beforehand but still, just nutty. That's well over 3 weeks after the latest first 20ºC during the last 15 years to put that in perspective. The May was extremely wet and very cold until the 13th but then closer to the end of the month it completely switched around and became extremely hot, like May 2006. It ended up near average. Normally I'd go on but I was curious to see June 1919 because the end left off at 32.8ºC. After going through June 1919 I was stunned. It looks to be the hottest June I've encountered and the duration of heatwaves absolutely insane like the 30s. I thought June 1911, 1988, 1997, and 2007 were great, this one was a true fantasy month in what I want out of my favorite month of the year. The heatwave going from the end of May to early June lasted 10 days in a row where the daily high temp. was about 30ºC and a lot of them were 32.8ºC for some reason . Then from the 13th to the 19th, another uber heatwave in terms of length. The days in-between were well above average as well. Then another 2 days closer to the end of 30ºC. Average high for the month was 28.2ºC which is comparable to the hottest Julys. It didn't contain any amazingly high max's like the high 30s (1988) but it was the duration. The 19th had a low of 25.6ºC! Like 1997, It was constant with every single day having a high above 20ºC. An even more staggering 27 days had a temperature 25ºC or above and 14 days 30ºC or above. Overall the hottest June for number of 30ºC days I've seen in the region. I really hope 2014's June is like 1919 . I don't know if 1919 is a possible analogue to this Spring and early Summer, but I found it was likely a weak to moderate El Nino which is encouraging. I think we'll have those conditions by May so there is that to consider. The winter preceding this time-frame was very warm and dry so its the opposite of this winter. March and April were quite warm too so none of that matches up to this current regime...the first 20ºC just happened to be insanely late. I'll gladly take some pain of very cold weather now if I can have that later on. Checking out the summer of 1919, I'd be fine with even the 2 main summer months being below average after such a torch that was unbounded. My jaw was on the floor looking at July, it continued and got even more brutal! Its a page straight from 1911, endless heatwaves without a pattern change. Average temperature was the highest I've ever seen for any month at 29.8ºC. Highest max was 35ºC and that occurred more than once. The lows weren't that impressive and it appeared to be very dry only getting 20 mm that month. 25ºC or higher: 28 Days 30ºC or higher: 17 Days 35ºC or higher: 2 Days August wasn't as hot but did have 1 heatwave. It wasn't below normal but did have some sub-20ºC days near the end with more rainfall. Finally, September was pretty warm having yet another heatwave. * Finished post April 9, 2014. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted April 7, 2014 Share Posted April 7, 2014 Radar is looking mighty impressive with this oncoming rain Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 8, 2014 Author Share Posted April 8, 2014 Radar is looking mighty impressive with this oncoming rain Per the wunderground personal stations, already a widespread 1/3-2/3" down south of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Its raining pretty decently outside. Its finally feeling like spring outside and to some its a sigh of relief, lol. As much as I love Winter I'm all in for some warmth. I can finally go outside and play some sports and do some outdoor exercising. Its amazing. I saw people wearing shorts and t-shirts today. Incredible! Some people just have no patience, I swear LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted April 8, 2014 Author Share Posted April 8, 2014 Its raining pretty decently outside. Its finally feeling like spring outside and to some its a sigh of relief, lol. As much as I love Winter I'm all in for some warmth. I can finally go outside and play some sports and do some outdoor exercising. Its amazing. I saw people wearing shorts and t-shirts today. Incredible! Some people just have no patience, I swear LOL. Was 12c out here in Edmonton today. I was walking around in a short-sleeved golf shirt. Felt like June as far as I'm concerned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Was 12c out here in Edmonton today. I was walking around in a short-sleeved golf shirt. Felt like June as far as I'm concerned. Really? Thats surprising. The Sun's getting stronger by the day. If you're in a car or inside a house you can really feel the heat as it bares down on you. It feels great after all the cold weather we've been experiencing. It was the coldest Winter on record in Winnipeg. Despite the cold, its been a dry winter overall. Hopefully it gets a bit wetter as the weeks go by but at this point in time, early indications do point towards a cool summer similar to last year. We'll see how that idea plays out in the coming weeks as the El Nino gets itself together. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 Really hoping that 16c verifies on Thursday. Definitely need some quality patio time and it's my day off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 It's snowing a good clip and everything is covered the ground is even covering over... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 11 degrees here. Shocked at how warm it is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 11 degrees here. Shocked at how warm it is Wouldn't really say I'm shocked, sun angle is strong at this time of year and the coldest airmass won't move overhead until around 09-12Z tomorrow. Forecast high for YYZ was 9C and temperature is reading 10.1C right now. Things did clear out a little earlier than expected though, which is helping temps overperform slightly. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted April 8, 2014 Share Posted April 8, 2014 After wet snow this morning, its awesome out right now(11c but feels like shorts wx). On another note, The Euro's D7-8 anafrontal snow action is LOL worthy to say the least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Purely for the fun of it, but its a shame we won't be able to build any instability for the Sunday system. Look at this sounding and hodograph. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 Thought it was interesting how the dewpoint has tanked today. From 0C at midnight to -8C at 11am. Very dry air moving in as high pressure builds. Should make for some great viewing of Mars tonight. Haven't seen it this bright in a while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 GGEM hefty on precip amounts for Sun-Mon system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 9, 2014 Share Posted April 9, 2014 I updated my post (http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43074-southern-ontario-spring-2014-discussion-part-i/page-20#entry2922215) near the top of this page. I can't seem to hyperlink the text to the URL so its long. I found also that the winter of 1997-1998 was extremely warm in the region and February 1998 only had 2.2 cm of snow in Hanover which for the snowbelt is like freaky weather . GGEM hefty on precip amounts for Sun-Mon system. Wow, I still have a lot of snow on the ground here or at least a foot in most areas. Just this morning the Saugeen Valley Conservation Authority (SVCA) issued a flood watch starting now and going til Monday at 11:00 am. In that model image, I'm in that highest contour shown at 75-100 mm in 60 hours . Its already going to create common flooding due to the upcoming 3 days of teens but if we get that amount of rain on the weekend, a huge flood event will commence around my neck of the woods for sure. I can't recall the last time 75-100 mm fell where I'm at. A flood warning will be issued soon and Mon won't be the end either. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Winds gusting to near 80kmh last hour at YKF Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted April 10, 2014 Share Posted April 10, 2014 Winds gusting to near 80kmh last hour at YKF Just checked Waterloo a few minutes ago, knew you'd be here posting about it. I'm only in the 25-38 km/h range currently. Smells like spring bigtime. I also found that Waterloo's March was the 2nd coldest on record (!) and the 3rd driest as well going back to 1915 with Kitchener's database that I'm currently working with to get 20ºC first occurrences. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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