Jump to content
  • Member Statistics

    17,792
    Total Members
    7,904
    Most Online
    manaja
    Newest Member
    manaja
    Joined

Southern Ontario Weather Discussion


snowstormcanuck

Recommended Posts

Yes we have seen a pretty impressive upper PV split, along with a 1-30mb +u wind reversal. Not sure this is what is bringing down the NAO/AO as we haven't seen enough downwelling so far... it is more correlated to the arhchembault progression that is going on as we speak.

 

Regarding the el nino, it doesn't really matter if its climatologically favoured or not. We are currently seeing one of the most impressive OKW's in modern history, on par with '97 in terms of march sub-sfc anomalies. We should see upwelling relax over the next 6-10 days as the MJO moves through the eastern IO/maritimes continent. This look favours +CHI over the tropical pacific with mean easterlies in the low levels. Once the uplift can edge further east, were going to see the sfc anomaly reflection spike rapidly. Am feeling pretty confident on strong nino departures(+1.5c or more for at least two months), whether it is classified as an official strong nino or not. LR Models along with -PDO/+AMO climatology would favour a drop off in SST's on the ENSO front as we get into the fall and winter. Specifics with timing, etc are obviously going to be difficult to nail down and will have huge implications on next winter for S On.

 

Yes I agree. Usually when I do my long range analysis, I tend to look at the Sun as well. I've seen alot of interesting correlations of late between the Sun and weather conditions on Earth and it has a good accuracy rate. Since I'm going to be astronomy as a program soon, correlating it with Weather is a good platform for making forecasts IMO. I'm certainly not doubting the possibility of a decent El Nino next year but I do feel as though its over-hyped, lol. The -EPO this Winter was centered closer to NA and as a result, the -PDO did weaken and is now neutral-weakly positive. Another sign of an impending El Nino.

 

Climatologically speaking, we could be looking at a moderately strong La Nina next year, haha. For our region a West Based El Nino would favour us better than a East Based El Nino. Again, it depends on the strength, but with the QBO expected to be more favorable for high-latitude blocking, it could help minimize the effects of a potentially strong El Nino like what happened in 09-10. The one great thing about El Ninos over La Nina's, is the STJ. Could be another dead Atlantic Hurricane Season, with a weak -AMO currently in place. SST's across the Atlantic look similar to 1994 which saw 12 storms but only 7 named ones.   

 

post-6644-0-73239100-1396112677_thumb.gi 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

  • Replies 1k
  • Created
  • Last Reply

The latest RUC is very intriguing. Now temperatures won't be cold enough for 10:1 snow ratios but it does hint at the possibility of a few cm's tonight in the GTA. 

 

post-6644-0-19330200-1396114455_thumb.pn

 

The RAP seems more reasonable with 2-5cm of Wet snow in the GTA. Sharp cut-off. 

 

post-6644-0-20454100-1396114526_thumb.pn 

 

If only it was a bit further West, lol. Would have been a nice spring snowstorm, haha. Seems like Buffalo is going to get a nice snowstorm, haha. 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes I agree. Usually when I do my long range analysis, I tend to look at the Sun as well. I've seen alot of interesting correlations of late between the Sun and weather conditions on Earth and it has a good accuracy rate. Since I'm going to be astronomy as a program soon, correlating it with Weather is a good platform for making forecasts IMO. I'm certainly not doubting the possibility of a decent El Nino next year but I do feel as though its over-hyped, lol. The -EPO this Winter was centered closer to NA and as a result, the -PDO did weaken and is now neutral-weakly positive. Another sign of an impending El Nino.

 

Climatologically speaking, we could be looking at a moderately strong La Nina next year, haha. For our region a West Based El Nino would favour us better than a East Based El Nino. Again, it depends on the strength, but with the QBO expected to be more favorable for high-latitude blocking, it could help minimize the effects of a potentially strong El Nino like what happened in 09-10. The one great thing about El Ninos over La Nina's, is the STJ. Could be another dead Atlantic Hurricane Season, with a weak -AMO currently in place. SST's across the Atlantic look similar to 1994 which saw 12 storms but only 7 named ones.   

 

attachicon.gifwkxzteq_anm.gif

This will largely depend on sun spot activity as +Smax nino's with a -QBO are unfavourable for sig weakening of the NAM state. If sun spots drop off which they should then blocking can definitely become a big player, especially mid to late winter in those setups.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

This will largely depend on sun spot activity as +Smax nino's with a -QBO are unfavourable for sig weakening of the NAM state. If sun spots drop off which they should then blocking can definitely become a big player, especially mid to late winter in those setups.

 

Yeah, lets see. We saw an unexpected spike in Sunspots/Solar Flux last month so I wouldn't count out the possibility of seeing another spike sometime this year before everything winds down. Either way this Solar cycle will end up being the weakest since the Dalton Minimum. It'll be interesting to see how Global temps respond to the changing Solar cycle in the coming years coupled with a -PDO and developing -AMO. Could we see a repeat of some of the greatest Winters of the 20th century? And by that I mean the 70s, lol.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Here's a quick composite I drew up when the peak trimonthly ONI is between 0.7-1.7 and the QBO is negative. Definitely want to stay away from this type of setup. Much weaker bering sea high then you would typically see in +QBO, nina years.

post-7879-0-29603900-1396115602_thumb.pn

 

The weaker nino years have a better look:

post-7879-0-74159700-1396115622_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

lol, I hear yeah wrt long range stuff. Bliz96 and snowstorms are talking a whole 'nother language. 

Lol. Usually try to keep it to the short range in this thread. Once in a while its nice to bounce around some LR thoughts with anyone willing to chime in. Meanwhile, KC radar is starting to fill in from the SSW. The HRRR has backed off from previous runs but maybe we can sneak an inch in this evening.

 

post-7879-0-42559900-1396124425_thumb.pn

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Yes I agree. Usually when I do my long range analysis, I tend to look at the Sun as well. I've seen alot of interesting correlations of late between the Sun and weather conditions on Earth and it has a good accuracy rate. Since I'm going to be astronomy as a program soon, correlating it with Weather is a good platform for making forecasts IMO. I'm certainly not doubting the possibility of a decent El Nino next year but I do feel as though its over-hyped, lol. The -EPO this Winter was centered closer to NA and as a result, the -PDO did weaken and is now neutral-weakly positive. Another sign of an impending El Nino.

 

Climatologically speaking, we could be looking at a moderately strong La Nina next year, haha. For our region a West Based El Nino would favour us better than a East Based El Nino. Again, it depends on the strength, but with the QBO expected to be more favorable for high-latitude blocking, it could help minimize the effects of a potentially strong El Nino like what happened in 09-10. The one great thing about El Ninos over La Nina's, is the STJ. Could be another dead Atlantic Hurricane Season, with a weak -AMO currently in place. SST's across the Atlantic look similar to 1994 which saw 12 storms but only 7 named ones.   

 

attachicon.gifwkxzteq_anm.gif

I think what is happening out there is under-hyped a little. The subsurface is going completely bonkers at this point and I think it will be a Top 2 El Nino or a super Nino (-PDO will be no object this time IMO). I don't want an El Nino however (want La Nina). The loop you posted shows just how insane the subsurface values and spread is becoming, even I'm becoming interested in that. If the Atlantic looks like 1994, then more fuel to the deadening of that basin, bleah.

 

Sometimes when I read through this thread this is all I can think... 

I understand some of it. I got lost when "arhchembault progression" came up however lol!!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The euro and GFS want to play ball with early next week's winter storm threat. The GEFS/EC ENS suite are still all over the place, although the idea of a miller B type track seems pretty likely based on clustering. Where the primary tracks is going to be the tricky part to nail down.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

The euro and GFS want to play ball with early next week's winter storm threat. The GEFS/EC ENS suite are still all over the place, although the idea of a miller B type track seems pretty likely based on clustering. Where the primary tracks is going to be the tricky part to nail down.

 

Still hanging on. You're a champ.

 

I've found April is a no go for siggy snow in Toronto in my 27 years.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, I'll be leaving the province for the summer for the west coast. It's a real shame to be missing severe season, especially after nabbing my first tornado last summer.

 

I'm really hoping we get at least a half decent severe set-up before I head out (around May 7th). So as far as April snow chances go, I'd trade that for some thunder in a heartbeat.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, I'll be leaving the province for the summer for the west coast. It's a real shame to be missing severe season, especially after nabbing my first tornado last summer.

 

I'm really hoping we get at least a half decent severe set-up before I head out (around May 7th). So as far as April snow chances go, I'd trade that for some thunder in a heartbeat.

 

Where on the west coast? 

 

Regardless, no severe weather there. Ever. You'll be lucky to see a few thunder events the whole summer.

 

If you enjoyed last August, expect much of the same there! No humidity, dry, and temps consistently in the low to mid 20s!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Where on the west coast? 

 

Regardless, no severe weather there. Ever. You'll be lucky to see a few thunder events the whole summer.

 

If you enjoyed last August, expect much of the same there! No humidity, dry, and temps consistently in the low to mid 20s!

 

I'll be heading to Vancouver for May, up to Haida Gwaii and then to Dawson City for the rest of the summer. Honestly going to miss the weather, but can't beat the Rockies!

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Unfortunately, I'll be leaving the province for the summer for the west coast. It's a real shame to be missing severe season, especially after nabbing my first tornado last summer.

 

I'm really hoping we get at least a half decent severe set-up before I head out (around May 7th). So as far as April snow chances go, I'd trade that for some thunder in a heartbeat.

I'm sorry to hear that, I would be mad. I don't like west coast weather and have never followed it for a minute. The only up-side is at least you will see the effects of a possible forming super Nino which hits the WC pretty good in weather pattern changes so there is always that.

 

My snowpack is melting at an accelerating rate, not liking this because in my mind it should have waited until a more rapid shift in the pattern showed itself. What's happening on the east coast of Canada is simply ludicrous. A historic blizzard last week, days of freezing rain ending now, and now another major winter storm starting up. I saw a range early this morning from TWN showing a part of eastern NFL getting 40-60 cm of snow (from this upcoming one) and this is April...

 

Just in case anyone here likes TWN local music, they are playing some old tunes during today's LF. The best one isn't there so that's a write-off lol.

 

I got up to 7ºC today with mainly overcast and sunny breaks around 12:00 - 2:30 pm. By around 5:00 pm, it was an unusual dark overcast like when you get an all day heavy rain like August 9, 2012 or before a thunderstorm.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Almost no snow left here except for piles, and March 31 was the first time in 128 days KW hit 10 degrees which is awesome. Absolutely ready for severe season to kick-off up here. Hope it doesn't take too long..

 

The snow melt has unearthed all the debris from the ice storm and the Region is beginning mass debris curbside pickups, and damage is still very apparent almost everywhere you look with loads of dangling, snapped, or bent branches. If we get some straight-line winds this year I imagine it could be a hairy situation near the trees.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Still a healthy snowpack just north of the city. Noticed this on Sunday when I was in Guelph, about 3-4" still left on the ground in the parks there.

 

MODIS shot yesterday:

 

oxq0c.png

 

Crazy how you can clearly see Stratford, Kitchener, Waterloo, Cambridge, and Guelph on that image which have melted as opposed to surrounding rural areas

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Convection really looks like it's taking a toll on moisture transport north of the OV.

 

Yeah noticing that myself. Looks to be pretty lame around here for the afternoon. Most models now backing off on the precip. Totals will probably come in around 0.5" at best.

 

Oh well. Snooze pattern continues.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Flood warning for New Hamburg and Ayr along the Nith River. Looks pretty minimal, could get more interesting next week with the Mon-Tues system.

 

GRCA Flood Warning (Action) Message

 

Nith River in New Hamburg and Ayr

 

Based on the forecast for a possible 15 mm of rain this afternoon, Nith River flows could peak close to Level 1 in New Hamburg late Saturday morning and Ayr late Saturday night.

 

In New Hamburg a Level 1 Flood Warning applies to residents in the Milton Street and Jacob Street areas. In Ayr, the Level 1 Flood Warning applies to residents along Tannery and Piper streets.

 

Action: As a precaution, the GRCA is requesting the Waterloo Regional Police and municipal staff to warn residents in the Level 1 flood areas of these communities. Municipal staff are asked to close Tannery Street in Ayr and residents are advised not to park vehicles in low- lying areas on Saturday.

 

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Even in the coldest winter in 25 years, it won't snow in April.

The euro wants to put this to the test and has been adamant on a heavy rain to snow situation across the GTA monday night. Although it's obviously not going to be an all snow scenario, its looking to take a very favourable track for us which eventually makes its own cold air as the northern branch/evapo-cooling gets involved. The SLP track goes up to near CLE and east towards ROC. Wish I could post the euro maps... looking might tasty, even w/ marginal sfc/925mb temps.

Link to comment
Share on other sites

Archived

This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.

Guest
This topic is now closed to further replies.
  • Recently Browsing   0 members

    • No registered users viewing this page.

×
×
  • Create New...