snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Not sure if this means anything but: 3z SREF mean (snow - YYZ): 1.4" 9z SREF mean (snow - YYZ): 1.7" 15z SREF mean (snow - YYZ): 1.2" 21z SREF mean (snow - YYZ): 3.9" That's a noticeable break from continuity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ottawa looks to be hit by a quick 4-6". Sounds like snowfall rates will be intense. As for my area, I'm expecting 2" of slush. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Ottawa looks to be hit by a quick 4-6". Sounds like snowfall rates will be intense. As for my area, I'm expecting 2" of slush. Think you may get up to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Think you may get up to 3". Its a reasonable call. Sharp cutoff though. Let's see what happens tonight. Going to a friends house for the weekend so we can study for an exam next week, haha. Their better not be traffic delays tomorrow.-_- Thermals aren't supportive of freezing rain, so the freezing rain warning makes no sense IMO. Another cold outbreak and dry weather following this storm. When will it end? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Am going to go with 1-3" as my final call for the GTA, with some PL mixing downtown. The best frontogenesis/banding looks to stay north of lake simcoe up towards barrie, orillia, bruce county and over to YOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Am going to go with 1-3" as my final call for the GTA, with some PL mixing downtown. The best frontogenesis/banding looks to stay north of lake simcoe up towards barrie, orillia, bruce county and over towards YOW. The placement of the mid-level features are definitely not what you want for +SN in Toronto. However, theta-e advection on the nose of a strengthening low level jet over lower MI is creating that convective looking blob of pcpn south of GRR. There's actually a bit of elevated CAPE in the area as well. If thermals can stay supportive of snow...we could get an rip job around 2am...even if total amounts aren't that impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 The placement of the mid-level features are definitely not what you want for +SN in Toronto. However, theta-e advection on the nose of a strengthening low level jet over lower MI is creating that convective looking blob of pcpn south of GRR. There's actually a bit of elevated CAPE in the area as well. If thermals can stay supportive of snow...we could get an rip job around 2am...even if total amounts aren't that impressive. Can already see some of those impressive returns on exeter. Likely some PL contamination with those 45dbz+ returns near goderich, but impressive nonetheless. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Going to be interesting to see what we start as. Temps from 850 on down are basically right at freezing. Think that would be good enough for SN as we're likely going to bulb a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I'll likely be getting the highest amount of snow from this in this sub-forum thread. 15 cm is forecast with 20 cm possible if LES kicks up like it does a bit. If that occurs, this will be one of the highest amounts of snow I've seen in March and I've said before I haven't seen a legit March snowstorm in my lifetime. Still don't know why as many occurred in the past. My snow started at 12:20 am. Haven't gotten any heavy snow but moderate with changing density. It was coming from the east but now its straight down calm. Flake size average but changes frequently. About 4-8 cm on the ground already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 A coating of slush. I slept right through it so I guess I knew subconsciously that this threat was DOA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A coating of slush. I slept right through it so I guess I knew subconsciously that this threat was DOA. I woke up to the disturbing ping noise as the squall line moved through at ~5am. The 1cm on the ground here is enough to bring my seasonal total to 170.4cm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 I woke up to the disturbing ping noise as the squall line moved through at ~5am. The 1cm on the ground here is enough to bring my seasonal total to 170.4cm. lol, it's almost all melted. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 A coating of slush. I slept right through it so I guess I knew subconsciously that this threat was DOA. Same. Made it to 3am for the start of the IP/ZR mix but fell asleep shortly after. Awoke to a T. Let's call winter over and move on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Same. Made it to 3am for the start of the IP/ZR mix but fell asleep shortly after. Awoke to a T. Let's call winter over and move on. Seconded. It's been a good one. Looks like a bit of -SN possible around midweek and then hopefully it's feel the heat time... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Seconded. It's been a good one. Looks like a bit of -SN possible around midweek and then hopefully it's feel the heat time... This last major cold outbreak will set the stage for a top 5 cold March at YYZ. With 9 days left not including today, we have a good chance at March being the second or third coldest on record. The snow cover streak came to an end yesterday, LOL. 102 days will be the final number. I haven't looked beyond day 5 yet but I shall do that tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 Final grades for winter? A- Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torchageddon Posted March 22, 2014 Share Posted March 22, 2014 I got a bit over 15 cm of snow from this event which is nice. Areas just south of Barrie to the east and west look like they got the highest based on what radar returns they got under; the image below was the forecast from TWN and it looked close to reality. Its heavy, wet snow and people are digging out. It looks like the middle of winter again, everything is plastered here. I'd say this is easily the highest snowpack so late in my lifetime. My grade for winter is still an A but leaning strongly towards A+ at this point. A major winter storm in March would confirm A+ but it can happen without. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 22, 2014 Author Share Posted March 22, 2014 Final grades for winter? A- Category: total snowfall Weight: 40% Generally reserve A grades for over 150cm winters. Not quite there at the downtown station (which is what I consider Toronto's "official" obs. site for snow). Grade: 79%/B+ Category: Snow storms Weight: 25% Officially 3 6"+/15cm+ snowstorms, including one that almost approached a foot. We average less than 2 per year so definitely nothing to groan about. However, still not quite as good as winters like 2007-08, 2002-03, 1998-99 where there were 4 or 5 including foot+ events (not in 02-03, but the others). So good, but not in the excellent category. Grade: 78%/B+ Category: Snowcover Weight: 15% Record snowcover. Smashed the record actually. We know that was the case at YYZ, and I suspect if you throw out the clown years in the 1800s it was a record downtown too. Grade: 100%/A+ Category: Snowdepth Weight: 10% Snowdepth hit 30cm/12" once downtown but that was about it. Although the pack was persistent, it wasn't terribly deep for any extended period of time. Still, there were extended periods of 20cm/8"+ which is above normal likely. But an A or A+ grade has to be reserved for winters that achieve depth like Jan 1999 or March 2008. Grade: 80%/A- Category: Snow frequency Weight: 10% 35 days with measurable snow downtown, which is actually below normal (41 per 1981-2010 records). December and February especially had some dry periods, with much of the total snow coming from the storms (Dec 14/Feb 5). Still could add a few more but we'll likely still end up below. Not a lot of NW flow stuff off Huron/Georgian Bay which was unusual considering it was a cold winter. Grade: 66%/C Raw grade: 80.7% or an A-. If it was a close B+ I was going to kick it up to an A- just because of the ice storm/cold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Final grades for winter? A- A Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DAFF Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 My grade is an A. Only due to the lack of a something epic WRT snow. We had 20" over the course of a week but it was totally manageable and never phased me much. The cold and constant snow was awesome but still wish the area could of been closed for a day or two. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted March 23, 2014 Share Posted March 23, 2014 Obviously an A+ here. I like SSCs grading scale as I generally use the same type only I include cold and I have different ratios of weight per category (ie snowcover is huge for me). So what can I say about this winter? We have had 92.6" of snow...93 days with 1"+ snowcover, 75 days with 5"+ snowcover, 52 days with 10"+ snowcover, and 24 days with 15"+ snowcover. We have had 110 days and counting with a trace or more of snow on the ground. We set many cold records, and even though it was "only" the 8th coldest winter on record its on pace to be the 4th coldest Dec-Mar on record. Though we didnt have a 12"+ storm (I could argue Dec 31-Jan 2 was 13.2" but it was 2 Ls, 1.6+11.6) we managed 6 storms of 6"+, including 4 of 8"+ and 2 of 10"+. Thats incredible for any winter, no less one socked in with severe cold. Snow has fallen on 85 days and measurable snow has fallen on 53 days. if I gave this winter anything less than an A+ (even if I went as low as a solid A) I would be contradicting everything I have ever said in my 12 years on weather forums. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 24, 2014 Author Share Posted March 24, 2014 Obviously an A+ here. I like SSCs grading scale as I generally use the same type only I include cold and I have different ratios of weight per category (ie snowcover is huge for me). So what can I say about this winter? We have had 92.6" of snow...93 days with 1"+ snowcover, 75 days with 5"+ snowcover, 52 days with 10"+ snowcover, and 24 days with 15"+ snowcover. We have had 110 days and counting with a trace or more of snow on the ground. We set many cold records, and even though it was "only" the 8th coldest winter on record its on pace to be the 4th coldest Dec-Mar on record. Though we didnt have a 12"+ storm (I could argue Dec 31-Jan 2 was 13.2" but it was 2 Ls, 1.6+11.6) we managed 6 storms of 6"+, including 4 of 8"+ and 2 of 10"+. Thats incredible for any winter, no less one socked in with severe cold. Snow has fallen on 85 days and measurable snow has fallen on 53 days. if I gave this winter anything less than an A+ (even if I went as low as a solid A) I would be contradicting everything I have ever said in my 12 years on weather forums. I've criticized you in the past for perhaps doling out "A"s too liberally but this winter is a slam dunk A+ for you. No one (except Powerball) could argue with that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Roger Smith Posted March 24, 2014 Share Posted March 24, 2014 So anyway, I took three days of vacation in the sunny southwest, 27 C, then had to fly to Ottawa for some business and this morning it was -458 and that's on the old scale. Everything in the shade is completely iced over, the sunnier exposures have snow that softens a bit around high noon then freezes back to near ice for the night. Lovely. Now I remember why we moved west. This was the coldest day of my winter. I am going to keep my hopes alive for that burst of warming to -300 tomorrow cuz it's back down to -500 on Thursday morning, they say. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Sounding's should get increasingly unstable today as the strong march sun brings sfc temps up to near the freezing mark while the vort approaches with 850's below -20c behind the arctic front. This could generate some pretty interesting squalls after the noon hour today. Also wouldn't rule out the slight risk of some TSSN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 Sounding's should get increasingly unstable today as the strong march sun brings sfc temps up to near the freezing mark while the vort approaches with 850's below -20c behind the arctic front. This could generate some pretty interesting squalls after the noon hour today. Also wouldn't rule out the slight risk of some TSSN. RAP_255_2014032510_F10_44.0000N_79.5000W.png Upstream evidence of that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Upstream evidence of that. From yesterday out in the east west part of the sub? Reports of some sick 3"/hr rates so hopefully we can live up to that. Sun is out now so hopefully that will help destabilize. Helicity values even creep into the 200m2/s2 range which should help some convection. EDIT: Man, you know you want spring and thunderstorms when you're examining severe parameters for an arctic squall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 From yesterday out in the east part of the sub? Reports of some sick 3"/hr rates so hopefully we can live up to that. Sun is out now so hopefully that will help destabilize. Helicity values even creep into the 200m2/s2 range which should help some convection. EDIT: Man, you know you want spring and thunderstorms when you're examining severe parameters for an arctic squall. Yeah, well, west part, but I get what you mean 6z 4km NAM really shreds it apart though per simulated radar. RAP/HRRR haven't been updating so I'm not sure what they depict. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Yeah, well, west part, but I get what you mean 6z 4km NAM really shreds it apart though per simulated radar. RAP/HRRR haven't been updating so I'm not sure what they depict. Oops, yes west. Haven't finished my coffee yet. Noticed that as well on the hi-res NAM. Escarpment strikes again? Still looks decent on the RGEM but not sure if its resolution is sufficient for these types of events. Would be a real treat to cap this winter off with some TSSN, the one thing this winter was missing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 25, 2014 Author Share Posted March 25, 2014 Oops, yes west. Haven't finished my coffee yet. Noticed that as well on the hi-res NAM. Escarpment strikes again? Still looks decent on the RGEM but not sure if its resolution is sufficient for these types of events. Would be a real treat to cap this winter off with some TSSN, the one thing this winter was missing. Seems like it. It's usually only these small events were it's a factor but in the aggregate it probably costs us a good 6"+ of snow per season. Yeah, I can't recall a TSSN event this winter. We're actually pretty fortunate to average TSSN once per winter or two. I've mentioned it to some folks out here in Edmonton and you should see the looks I get. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 25, 2014 Share Posted March 25, 2014 Radar looks beautiful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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