Torchageddon Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Today marks the 11th anniversary of what is still the coldest temp of this century at YYZ. -24.7c. Won't come close to that today. In fact, as cold as winter as it's been, I don't think a single daily record was set at YYZ for minimum temp. Someone correct me if I'm wrong. That's one thing in my mind this winter is missing, major record cold in quantity. Hardly any record lows have been broken this winter in southern Ontario for how historic the season as been, but there have been quite a few elsewhere in the eastern half of NA. I don't have an explanation for it but if I were to speculate, its UHI and differences in the equipment (likely not). Just in the last few days more records are falling at a quicker rate but talking about the main months of winter it is strange. The UW Weather station is starting to drop extremely fast, at -19.4ºC which is 0.5ºC drop in 15 minutes. Then to -20ºC 15 mins. after that which is even greater: 8:15 pm: -19.4ºC 8:30 pm: -20.0ºC 8:45 pm: -20.6ºC 9:00 pm: ?? 9:15 pm: -22.4ºC 9:30 pm: -23.5ºC 9:45 pm: ?? 10:00 pm: -24.3ºC 10:15 pm: -25.0ºC (lower than last night's low) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 UW at -26 and YKF at -23. Hoping YKF makes a run for -25 so we can officially have that 4th -25 temp in March on record. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 UW says there has been 57" so far this winter which is 9" less than the airport's 66" which usually comes in under the UW. I use the airport numbers for consistency, but also tagged on 1.9" of unreported LES from Oct-Dec, and an additional 1.57" to fill in a reporting gap between a storm spotter and the airport during a storm earlier last month. The airport has been level with my own measurements and estimates this entire winter, with 2 exceptions as I stated above, so I wonder how the UW, which is 1km from here, got their number. Edit, the airport has hit -25.2 making this the fourth time on record they've gone below -25 in March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 UW at -26 and YKF at -23. Hoping YKF makes a run for -25 so we can officially have that 4th -25 temp in March on record. Down to -24 at the airport at 1am. We're now approaching 30 sub-zero F nights for the season. I'll have to look, but this must be pretty close to record territory at least locally for that particular stat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 Consecutive days with snowcover record broken this morning at YYZ. 86 days and counting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 0z euro continues to go big for the D8 system. Has ~7-11" through the golden horseshoe with a miller B look. The GEM has a similar idea, although it has less phasing overall between the upstream clipper and east coast system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 0z euro continues to go big for the D8 system. Has ~7-11" through the golden horseshoe with a miller B look. The GEM has a similar idea, although it has less phasing overall between the upstream clipper and east coast system. Interesting. Just a cursory look at the EURO had me believe that it was mostly suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Consecutive days with snowcover record broken this morning at YYZ. 86 days and counting. Wow, what a winter. Would you mind re-posting the list of previous snowcover records at YYZ? I think you posted it once before but I can't find it. Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Don't think 100 days in a row is out of reach if next weeks system can come to fruition. Its obviously a huge if but would be pretty cool to see that happen. As of yesterday, depth was 12cm at YYZ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Don't think 100 days in a row is out of reach if next weeks system can come to fruition. Its obviously a huge if but would be pretty cool to see that happen. As of yesterday, depth was 12cm at YYZ.About 7cm of that is coated and protected under 3-5cm of ice, so it should definitely help like it has thru the warmups this Winter. Could make a run for 90+ IMO, but 100 is possible. I'm intrigued by the increasing subsurface warmth in the ENSO regions if you havent already noticed. Seeing a tremendous Kelvin Wave breaking through in relation to the MJO phase. SOI is dropping and that could hinder the cooler anomalies currently present across the ENSO regions. It"ll be interesting to see how the next few months play out. I wouldn't bank on a strong El Nino as climo doesnt favour another strong El Nino till 2016, the earliest. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Not sure I'm buying into the 3C and 2C degree highs for Friday and Saturday from EC for Toronto. Seems as though a lot of our warm ups have busted low as of late (the most recent, late-Feb warm-up for example). Models haven't been able to properly assess the impact of great lakes ice cover and extensive snow cover this year. More likely temps will hover around 0C on Friday after warming throughout the day the drop off after midnight into Saturday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Not sure I'm buying into the 3C and 2C degree highs for Friday and Saturday from EC for Toronto. Seems as though a lot of our warm ups have busted low as of late (the most recent, late-Feb warm-up for example). Models haven't been able to properly assess the impact of great lakes ice cover and extensive snow cover this year. More likely temps will hover around 0C on Friday after warming throughout the day the drop off after midnight into Saturday. If the Sun comes out, I have no problem with that forecast. The Sun is far stronger now than it was back in January or even February, so extensive ice/snow cover won't do much unless your away from the Lake. However, I think EC is bit too warm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 About 7cm of that is coated and protected under 3-5cm of ice, so it should definitely help like it has thru the warmups this Winter. Could make a run for 90+ IMO, but 100 is possible. I'm intrigued by the increasing subsurface warmth in the ENSO regions if you havent already noticed. Seeing a tremendous Kelvin Wave breaking through in relation to the MJO phase. SOI is dropping and that could hinder the cooler anomalies currently present across the ENSO regions. It"ll be interesting to see how the next few months play out. I wouldn't bank on a strong El Nino as climo doesnt favour another strong El Nino till 2016, the earliest. Yep, have definitely noticed this and have been mentioning it on twitter lately. The OKW is extremely impressive with a core of sub sfc SST's 6c+ above normal according to NOAA ENSO data. Overall, in -PDO regimes you can get these kelvin flops, but they usually don't last more then 12-15 months and are often followed by a quick snap back to la nina conditions. A west pac typhoon/gyre like disturbance is helping amplify these warm anoms as it helps shift the WWB east through the tropac. We saw a similar event in spring of '97. In nino winters across S On, positioning/strength of the NAO block and ENSO anoms is usually the make or breaker as the spread between years is pretty big. In west based/weaker nino's we tend to do better in the snowfall department(e.g 63-64, 77-78, 02-03). These years tend to keep the western ridge axis further back along with more EB -NAO blocking near iceland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Looks like were getting slotted with returns ramping up across central ontario in addition to southern MI and ohio. Going to be tough to pull off 1"+ amounts south of the 401. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mississaugasnow Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Wow, what a winter. Would you mind re-posting the list of previous snowcover records at YYZ? I think you posted it once before but I can't find it. Thanks. 1.2013-2014...86* still going 2. 1969-70.....85 3. 2000-01.....84 4. 1977-78.....81 5. 1970-71.....77 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 GEM looks to have much more phasing this run. Pretty big hit for much of southern ontario. Lets see if the 12z euro follows suite. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 GEM looks to have much more phasing this run. Pretty big hit for much of southern ontario. Lets see if the 12z euro follows suite. P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif I love Miller Bs, both the GGEM and Euro have been showing this for two straight runs. Hopefully we can get the GFS to hop on board. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 4, 2014 Author Share Posted March 4, 2014 There were some big flakes showing up on the highway cams earlier. Overall though doesn't look like accums have been very impressive in the city. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ayuud11 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Some insane snow banks along the lakeshore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Yep, have definitely noticed this and have been mentioning it on twitter lately. The OKW is extremely impressive with a core of sub sfc SST's 6c+ above normal according to NOAA ENSO data. Overall, in -PDO regimes you can get these kelvin flops, but they usually don't last more then 12-15 months and are often followed by a quick snap back to la nina conditions. A west pac typhoon/gyre like disturbance is helping amplify these warm anoms as it helps shift the WWB east through the tropac. We saw a similar event in spring of '97. In nino winters across S On, positioning/strength of the NAO block and ENSO anoms is usually the make or breaker as the spread between years is pretty big. In west based/weaker nino's we tend to do better in the snowfall department(e.g 63-64, 77-78, 02-03). These years tend to keep the western ridge axis further back along with more EB -NAO blocking near iceland. It'll be interesting to see what happens once it begins formulating itself. Its been 4 years since the last El Nino, so its overdue. However, given the current -PDO regime, I wouldn't expect the El Nino to last long and we could possibly see a La Nina next year but thats way out. El Ninos, preferably weak-moderate West based ones, tend to be great for our region in terms of snowfall and cold temperatures. The -QBO next season may favour more blocking across the Arctic and give way to a more pronounced -AO/NAO anomaly than this season. The Pacific Warm pool is the wildcard. A -EPO is usually more common in La Nina's than El Ninos, as you may already know. What do you think? The one great thing about El Ninos over La Nina's, is the enhanced STJ. Whats your take on Spring/Summer? Based on my research, I see a cool start to Spring with some moderation mid-late April and above normal temperatures for May. Statistically, El Nino summers tend to favour cooler temps across the region, but that depends how the weather patterns evolve over the Equatorial Pacific in the coming months. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Been getting some light snow all day. I got about 0.5cm so far, lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 It'll be interesting to see what happens once it begins formulating itself. Its been 4 years since the last El Nino, so its overdue. However, given the current -PDO regime, I wouldn't expect the El Nino to last long and we could possibly see a La Nina next year but thats way out. El Ninos, preferably weak-moderate West based ones, tend to be great for our region in terms of snowfall and cold temperatures. The -QBO next season may favour more blocking across the Arctic and give way to a more pronounced -AO/NAO anomaly than this season. The Pacific Warm pool is the wildcard. A -EPO is usually more common in La Nina's than El Ninos, as you may already know. What do you think? The one great thing about El Ninos over La Nina's, is the enhanced STJ. Whats your take on Spring/Summer? Based on my research, I see a cool start to Spring with some moderation mid-late April and above normal temperatures for May. Statistically, El Nino summers tend to favour cooler temps across the region, but that depends how the weather patterns evolve over the Equatorial Pacific in the coming months. Im personnaly going colder then normal across the lakes/midwest in april as there are indications that the MJO will loop back towards and west of the dateline by the start of the month after brief entrance into warmer phases to end off march. In +QBO years with nina to nino transitions you tend to see a retrograding north pacific high in the april-may period. Analogs are pointing towards a -WPO, -PNA and -NAO in may with a weak to moderate SE ridge. This is in agreement with the euro monthlies and echos my thoughts for a warmer the normal month across the eastern two thirds with more of an RNA look. As we get into summer, analogs have a typical west based nino evolution with the mean trough over the lakes/northeast. The main wildcards, IMO is if the pacific warm pool fades and we get a more typical -pdo/+amo look which would help moderate any much colder then normal anomalies. SST's off the south atlantic coast also look toasty so am definitely hesistant to call a widespread BN summer east of the rockies until some of these factors are resolved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
London snowsquall Posted March 4, 2014 Share Posted March 4, 2014 Some insane snow banks along the lakeshore. Those are pretty impressive. The biggest ones along the highways here get near the top of the road signs - those are way over............. How much snow OTG in your backyard? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GEM looks to have much more phasing this run. Pretty big hit for much of southern ontario. Lets see if the 12z euro follows suite. P6_GZ_D5_PN_228_0000.gif I love Miller Bs, both the GGEM and Euro have been showing this for two straight runs. Hopefully we can get the GFS to hop on board. Unfortunately it would seem like the 12z Euro has the storm missing southern Ontario, giving us about 1". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Those are pretty impressive. The biggest ones along the highways here get near the top of the road signs - those are way over............. How much snow OTG in your backyard? These are particularly massive because they gather the entire stretch of snow on lake erie when frozen and deposit it against these banks when we have strong winds. Some of them are high as telephone wires. I have a video that I will post tonight most likely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BuffaloWeather Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Unfortunately it would seem like the 12z Euro has the storm missing southern Ontario, giving us about 1". Yeah I saw that, still plenty of time for that to change. Still way far out in lala land. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 ARW/NMM models have a pretty strong streamer forming off the lake between 02-09Z tomorrow. Something to keep a close eye on if you live along the lake shore or across the west end including hamilton and mississauga. Inversion height looks decent as it is AOB 900mb, delta-t's are between 20-14c and there is definitely enough of a synoptic push to get a band to form. LL lapse rates also looking pretty steep. Wonder if this can creep up into the heart of the city... would be pretty cool. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 ARW/NMM models have a pretty strong streamer forming off the lake between 02-09Z tomorrow. Something to keep a close eye on if you live along the lake shore or across the west end including hamilton and mississauga. Inversion height looks decent as it is AOB 900mb, delta-t's are between 20-14c and there is definitely enough of a synoptic push to get a band to form. LL lapse rates also looking pretty steep. Wonder if this can creep up into the heart of the city... would be pretty cool. It looks like the 0z 4km NAM has the streamer too. A decent burst of light snow is currently moving through the downtown core. Environment Canada updated its forecast and is calling for 2 cm with this burst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
on_wx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 25 days at YKF have gone below -20 this winter with 8 days below -25. Data missing for Feb 17 so I used the UW. DEC 16...-22.9....JAN 21...-24.0....FEB 04...-26.1....FEB 13...-22.6....MAR 04...-25.2 DEC 17...-20.0....JAN 22...-26.8....FEB 06...-23.7....FEB 16...-21.9 JAN 03...-23.0....JAN 23...-20.8....FEB 08...-24.9....FEB 17...-29.6 JAN 06...-21.6....JAN 28...-21.9....FEB 09...-24.0....FEB 27...-20.9 JAN 07...-25.8....JAN 29...-20.8....FEB 11...-28.3....FEB 28...-27.3 JAN 09...-20.7....FEB 03...-23.4....FEB 12...-30.7....MAR 03...-23.6 Compared to 27 days at the University of Waterloo with 10 below -25. DEC 16...-24.0....JAN 24...-22.8....FEB 12...-31.2 DEC 17...-24.0....JAN 28...-22.1....FEB 13...-23.2 DEC 25...-20.0....JAN 29...-21.1....FEB 16...-23.2 JAN 03...-23.3....FEB 03...-23.5....FEB 17...-29.6 JAN 07...-26.0....FEB 04...-25.5....FEB 27...-23.2 JAN 09...-22.2....FEB 06...-22.8....FEB 28...-29.9 JAN 21...-27.3....FEB 08...-23.4....MAR 02...-22.4 JAN 22...-29.8....FEB 09...-23.5....MAR 03...-26.3 JAN 23...-23.7....FEB 11...-28.4....MAR 04...-26.1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 5, 2014 Author Share Posted March 5, 2014 12km NAM still hinting at that Lake band tonight. EC issued a statement mentioning the potential. Statement doesn't include Toronto or Mississauga-Brampton though (horseshoe from Oakville to Niagara). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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