harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Getting some surprise -SN right now. Parachutes coming down. Looks like an easterly wind kicking up a small LES plume right over me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Getting some surprise -SN right now. Parachutes coming down. Looks like an easterly wind kicking up a small LES plume right over me. Indeed it is. Delta ts and flow stays constant for most of the day...although I'm guessing inversion heights will start to crash even more so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Indeed it is. Delta ts and flow stays constant for most of the day...although I'm guessing inversion heights will start to crash even more so. Very odd to look out the window. Sun is mostly out yet flakes are flying. Barely even a dusting has accumulated, sun just burning off flakes as soon as they land. Still, it's nice to be seeing snow so I can't complain. Hopefully it lasts and I can at least get something measureable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 Very odd to look out the window. Sun is mostly out yet flakes are flying. Barely even a dusting has accumulated, sun just burning off flakes as soon as they land. Still, it's nice to be seeing snow so I can't complain. Hopefully it lasts and I can at least get something measureable. The power of the mid-March sun, even with temps around -10c. I was looking at the QEW highway cams and it doesn't look like it's coming down too hard. Maybe 2 SM visibility per the Dorval cam. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 17, 2014 Author Share Posted March 17, 2014 If YYZ found some way to come in with 1cm of snowcover this morning, that LES plume moving north might be the magic bullet to reaching the 100 day threshold. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 The power of the mid-March sun, even with temps around -10c. I was looking at the QEW highway cams and it doesn't look like it's coming down too hard. Maybe 2 SM visibility per the Dorval cam.Ha that's almost exactly where I work (Fourth Line and QEW) so you've practically got a webcam with the view out my office window.Rates are a little better, still light snow but approaching moderate. Would be pretty funny if this little surprise is what got us to 100 days of snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A bit concerned about the ZR potential with this next system... thankfully it's so late in the season that ice accretion would be tough. It looks like a transition to rain at this stage, which is great, but I will always worry, especially for areas north of the city who still have a snowpack (downtown we're back to brown grass). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 A bit concerned about the ZR potential with this next system... thankfully it's so late in the season that ice accretion would be tough. It looks like a transition to rain at this stage, which is great, but I will always worry, especially for areas north of the city who still have a snowpack (downtown we're back to brown grass). You always worry lol. Looks like a few hours ZR at most, quick transition to rain. Doubt the grid will be affected at all but driving may be slippery for a little while. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Hey BuffaloWeather can you report any details on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 After pulling back on its 0z run, the 12z euro is back to showing a 5-6" system for the GTA with up to 10"+ down towards windsor and detroit. Another couple hybrids keep the light snows coming in the LR. The 12z GFS has .4" of ZR instead. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ottawa Blizzard Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 After pulling back on its 0z run, the 12z euro is back to showing a 5-6" system for the GTA with up to 10"+ down towards windsor and detroit. Another couple hybrids keep the light snows coming in the LR. The 12z GFS has .4" of ZR instead. Wow. People are going to start freaking out in this city if that happens.. The Weather Network keeps bringing up March 2012 and how people are wishing it was like that again. That March heat wave was actually really bad news for farmers and fruit trees. I read somewhere it was just as bad in 1945 and 1946, two torch Marches in a row. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Wow. People are going to start freaking out in this city if that happens.. The Weather Network keeps bringing up March 2012 and how people are wishing it was like that again. That March heat wave was actually really bad news for farmers and fruit trees. I read somewhere it was just as bad in 1945 and 1946, two torch Marches in a row. Kind of crazy how just 2 years ago we witnessed the warmest March on record and now were on pace to seeing the coldest March on record. Oh the irony. I don't mind another snowstorm but no more of this extreme cold. I'm tired of it now. I need some warmth so I can finally go outside without having a parka on. Latest MJO plots aren't very encouraging for spring lovers. As it moves into phases 2/3, the cold pattern should continue for the next 2 weeks atleast. The Pacific warm pool holds steady in the Pacific as the -EPO begins rebuilding back. We will see warm spells here and there but the cold should dominate predominately. What an interesting revelation. I still have about 7-8cm on the ground in my area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 17, 2014 Share Posted March 17, 2014 Kind of crazy how just 2 years ago we witnessed the warmest March on record and now were on pace to seeing the coldest March on record. Oh the irony. I don't mind another snowstorm but no more of this extreme cold. I'm tired of it now. I need some warmth so I can finally go outside without having a parka on. :axe Might wanna re-google your definition irony. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 You always worry lol. Looks like a few hours ZR at most, quick transition to rain. Doubt the grid will be affected at all but driving may be slippery for a little while. I only worry about ZR, and given the last (and only time) I expressed worry on this forum, a lot of problems did result. I'm not at the same level of worry, but drivers not prepared for ZR could find themselves in a dangerous situation. I'm not one to wish dangerous weather conditions simply to watch the chaos unfold like some kind of sadist. Hope for the best but prepare for the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Might wanna re-google your definition irony. There are 3 types of irony, and he's used one of them correctly. A re-google will simply affirm what how he's used it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I only worry about ZR, and given the last (and only time) I expressed worry on this forum, a lot of problems did result. Posted by WestCoaster on 11 March 2014 - 08:54 AM in Lakes/Ohio Valley I'm very worried to trust the GFS. It seems to be doing pretty well, given the current state of the atmosphere, but after its numerous fails this winter and last minute changes... my gut tells me to buy a solution closer to what the GEM is selling (even though it isn't the solution I would "prefer") as the GEM has had an excellent track record this winter albeit lately not as good as it had been. Posted by WestCoaster on 19 February 2014 - 02:33 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley * 15-20" of snow on the ground across Toronto * 40 hours of temperatures above freezing to come * 1.5" of rain to come I'm very worried about flooding at this stage. Posted by WestCoaster on 6 January 2014 - 10:23 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley Looks like the GTA will be hit in about 20 minutes, really worried about this. It will be so, so unsafe on the roads. I don't think anyone in the city is expecting snow since it's simply a wind chill warning and "chance of a few flurries" Posted by WestCoaster on 22 December 2013 - 12:32 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley Really worried about these winds expected. Winds are very calm here and big limbs just randomly fall all over the place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blizzardof96 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Its official. 100 days in a row of snowcover on the ground at YYZ. Looks to end as a nice number with temps warming today! What an epic run guys. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestCoaster Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Posted by WestCoaster on 11 March 2014 - 08:54 AM in Lakes/Ohio Valley I'm very worried to trust the GFS. It seems to be doing pretty well, given the current state of the atmosphere, but after its numerous fails this winter and last minute changes... my gut tells me to buy a solution closer to what the GEM is selling (even though it isn't the solution I would "prefer") as the GEM has had an excellent track record this winter albeit lately not as good as it had been. Posted by WestCoaster on 19 February 2014 - 02:33 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley * 15-20" of snow on the ground across Toronto * 40 hours of temperatures above freezing to come * 1.5" of rain to come I'm very worried about flooding at this stage. Posted by WestCoaster on 6 January 2014 - 10:23 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley Looks like the GTA will be hit in about 20 minutes, really worried about this. It will be so, so unsafe on the roads. I don't think anyone in the city is expecting snow since it's simply a wind chill warning and "chance of a few flurries" Posted by WestCoaster on 22 December 2013 - 12:32 PM in Lakes/Ohio Valley Really worried about these winds expected. Winds are very calm here and big limbs just randomly fall all over the place. I'm really disappointed to see a post like this in a weather discussion forum. In terms of consistently expressing worry about a system, it was the ice storm. I recall you making comments about how you don't understand why I'm worried about the ice storm. No other event, as you can see from your use of the forum's search tool to justify my verb choice in certain posts, had me "worry" about it in multiple posts, since the only time you've ever commented about my worry was during the ice storm (and now). I do worry about people's safety. I think it's really inappropriate to mock somebody for being concerned about the population's wellbeing. I would appreciate an apology. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 I'm really disappointed to see a post like this in a weather discussion forum. In terms of consistently expressing worry about a system, it was the ice storm. I recall you making comments about how you don't understand why I'm worried about the ice storm. No other event, as you can see from your use of the forum's search tool to justify my verb choice in certain posts, had me "worry" about it in multiple posts, since the only time you've ever commented about my worry was during the ice storm (and now). I do worry about people's safety. I think it's really inappropriate to mock somebody for being concerned about the population's wellbeing. I would appreciate an apology. Chill my friend, I'm just playing with ya. Since you were offended I will apologize and even buy you a beer in person should we ever cross paths. My point, was that in meterology, it is best to 'worry' as little as possible. I recall that you are studying atmospheric science, so I presume you aim to become a professional forecaster at some point. As meterologists, we cannot let emotions play into our forecasts. We have to be robots. This works both ways, underplaying or overhyping forecasts. The models, your knowledge and your experience need to work together to assess the data we have available to the best of our ability in order to adequately advise the public of adverse weather. Emotions need to be checked at the door, or else you end up with either too many or too few warnings, advisories etc. being issued and ultimately the public's safety becomes more at-risk because they will just ignore you. Freezing rain accumulation looks to be on the order of around 1-2mm tomorrow. Most of this will be outside the city and away from the major highways. As long as the roads get a little pre-treatment tonight, impacts will be minimal tomorrow. Highly doubt we will see impacts to the power grid, maybe just a slow commute in the morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Not sure how we get 2cm of snow tomorrow per EC. NAM, which is usually too cold in these setups, has a massive warm tongue aloft. So even if sfc temps are below freezing at the beginning, should be safely ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Its official. 100 days in a row of snowcover on the ground at YYZ. Looks to end as a nice number with temps warming today! What an epic run guys. By my count it's still 99 days unless you know that they kept their 1cm as of the 7am measurement this morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 By my count it's still 99 days unless you know that they kept their 1cm as of the 7am measurement this morning.I think it will end up being 100 by tomorrow. Temperatures were below freezing this morning, enough to retain that 1cm and keep it intact. Snow piles are still ~10cm which likely won't melt tomorrow. Quite the run, wow! Last time I saw my front lawn was back on Dec 8 LOL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 I think it will end up being 100 by tomorrow. Temperatures were below freezing this morning, enough to retain that 1cm and keep it intact. Snow piles are still ~10cm which likely won't melt tomorrow. Quite the run, wow! Last time I saw my front lawn was back on Dec 8 LOL. The question is did the 1cm recorded yesterday at 7am survive the day? I know it was below freezing yesterday but with the strong March sunshine it's likely further melting occurred. Doesn't take much to get 1cm down to a T. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 The question is did the 1cm recorded yesterday at 7am survive the day? I know it was below freezing yesterday but with the strong March sunshine it's likely further melting occurred. Doesn't take much to get 1cm down to a T. Yeah true but as far as I can remember the Sun didn't come out yesterday till later in the afternoon. It would be nice if we can get today to come in with 1cm on the ground. In my area I still have about 5-6cm on the ground. Snow piles are around 15-18cm. How's the weather in Edmonton? lol Buttonville is in intact. As of yesterday they have 17cm on the ground Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Yeah true but as far as I can remember the Sun didn't come out yesterday till later in the afternoon. It would be nice if we can get today to come in with 1cm on the ground. In my area I still have about 5-6cm on the ground. Snow piles are around 15-18cm. How's the weather in Edmonton? lol Buttonville is in intact. As of yesterday they have 17cm on the ground Eh, we smashed the old record. That's all that matters to me. Although 100 is a nice round number to get to. Wx here is boring as usual. There's not been a snowfall of more than a few cms since December. Should start to see things pick up the next few weeks per climo although climo's been battling this winter's anomalous PNA ridge. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowstorms Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Eh, we smashed the old record. That's all that matters to me. Although 100 is a nice round number to get to. Wx here is boring as usual. There's not been a snowfall of more than a few cms since December. Should start to see things pick up the next few weeks per climo although climo's been battling this winter's anomalous PNA ridge. Whats the old record? We'll have to wait and see tomorrow to know if we hit that 100 mark. The storm this weekend is still up for grabs. The strength of the PV is key as to where it ends up tracking. I think we could see some wet snow in the GTA (~5cm), mixed in with some rain near the Lake. Lets see! March 1998 is the last time we saw a snowstorm that had a warning so late, right? And really? Yeah Edmonton is not a fun filled place for Wintry weather other than extreme cold. If the PNA ridge continues as most models show atm, I don't think Edmonton is going to see much Spring snowfall through atleast the first week of April. There after, anything is possible. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowstormcanuck Posted March 18, 2014 Author Share Posted March 18, 2014 Whats the old record? We'll have to wait and see tomorrow to know if we hit that 100 mark. The storm this weekend is still up for grabs. The strength of the PV is key as to where it ends up tracking. I think we could see some wet snow in the GTA (~5cm), mixed in with some rain near the Lake. Lets see! March 1998 is the last time we saw a snowstorm that had a warning so late, right? And really? Yeah Edmonton is not a fun filled place for Wintry weather other than extreme cold. If the PNA ridge continues as most models show atm, I don't think Edmonton is going to see much Spring snowfall through atleast the first week of April. There after, anything is possible. TWN and Farnell are saying 1977-78 at 81 days but per the EC climo page the old record was 85 days in 1969-70. I forget if the March 2011 snowstorm had a warning or not. If not, then yeah. There was WS watch for the April 2-3, 2005 storm that was never upgarded and a WS warning for the April 2003 icestorm but that was mostly for PL/ZR. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
harrisale Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 Whats the old record? We'll have to wait and see tomorrow to know if we hit that 100 mark. The storm this weekend is still up for grabs. The strength of the PV is key as to where it ends up tracking. I think we could see some wet snow in the GTA (~5cm), mixed in with some rain near the Lake. Lets see! March 1998 is the last time we saw a snowstorm that had a warning so late, right? Given what went down last week, its going to take a lot to get a warning out of EC this time around. Especially considering how narrow the swath of heavy snow will be with this system, forecast uncertainty will be higher than usual. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Toronto4 Posted March 18, 2014 Share Posted March 18, 2014 According to a tweet from the Weather Network, YYZ has now reached 100 consecutive days with at least 1 cm of snow depth. It appears the folks at TWN have quick access to YYZ data. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.