bluewave Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Does anybody have any thoughts on how this low pressure over Hudson Bay may interact with / influence the PV lobe? That's part of the PV suppressing the storm track further south since last Wednesday as the HP undernrath got shunted too far south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This has been a fun one to track hasn't it? If you're right, and I think you have been all along, it looks like the moisture is farther north at this point than it was supposed to be, the HP sitting off the SE coast will keep it moving north/northeast rather than east and out to sea and the cold push will drop in behind rather than on top and keep a conveyor belt of GOM moisture going rather than squash the whole mess to the south of us. Am I reading you right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I was speaking of this storm specifically based on the latest guidance. i95 looks like a decent dividing line of where the heavier accums will setup (south of there) to being fringed (north of there) Probably around Monroe or Monmouth Junction, will see actual snow... I think we see a lot of light mess and not much accum in Woodbridge area. We do not do well here if the locus of the storm is north or south by much. We don't even top out when in the bullseye for some reason...it's usually Rahway or Metuchen. But we have had a lot of decent snow this year. Can't win em all and some winters every storm does this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I must admit, the graphics you posted Doorman, in addition to the current setup of features as per my latest look on SPC, look more interesting than what recent model runs would lead one to believe... Judging by WV, the PV also seems to be weaker on its southeastern side than what the 6z GFS depicted...I will be keeping an eye on the deeper convection moving through central Indiana, and shortly, thereafter, into south central Ohio. Seems like the 6z GFS was too south and east with this as well as underestimating the intensity of it at this hr. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not much change in the 12z NAM, less of sharp cutoff for NW than 6z but they're minimally in the storm anyway. Also similar to 0z NAM, except QPF is bumped up for Southern/Central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There looks like there will be a tight gradient of snowfall from Staten Island to Manhattan just like Feb 2010. I am forecasted to get 4-6 inches based off Upton's map while Manhattan is forecasted to get 2-4 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12Z NAM says.......no soup for you First wave drops 3" at best. Even PHL is in trouble. Philly media outlets gonna look silly tomorrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF's are dry; 0.25" plus slices through NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM shifts the heavy snow south of even DC. Only snows here 3-6 hours total. 0.75" plus and 1" plus slices through DC. 0.25" plus and 0.10" plus slices through NYC. Game, set, match. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 3/2 12z Guidance summary NYC/NNJ - CNJ (north of I-195) SREF: 0.25 - 0.30 / 1 - 3 inches snow NAM : 0.25 - 0.35 / 2 - 4 inches snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 4k NAM is slightly north of the 12k NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I must admit, the graphics you posted Doorman, in addition to the current setup of features as per my latest look on SPC, look more interesting than what recent model runs would lead one to believe... Judging by WV, the PV also seems to be weaker on its southeastern side than what the 6z GFS depicted...I will be keeping an eye on the deeper convection moving through central Indiana, and shortly, thereafter, into south central Ohio. Seems like the 6z GFS was too south and east with this as well as underestimating the intensity of it at this hr. The fun should always be tracking without the models------- with so many great real-time data sites i still cant figure out the model hugging fanatics!!! http://www.wpc.ncep.noaa.gov/wwd/day2_psnow_gt_04.gif day 2 small shifts mean more drifts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM shifts the heavy snow south of even DC. Only snows here 3-6 hours total. 0.75" plus and 1" plus slices through DC. 0.25" plus and 0.10" plus slices through NYC. Game, set, match. A true weenie doesn't give up. Lets just sit back and see what happens. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 SREF's are dry; 0.25" plus slices through NYC. SREFs have an even tighter gradient than 3z. BLM, PHL, TTN, CYN, ACY all had an increase in QPF (.05-.2 not much but a little), while EWR, LGA, JFK, ISP all had a very slight decrease. LGA: .22 JFK: .29 EWR: .24 ISP: .24 HPN: .13 BLM: .55 TTN: .48 PHL: .71 ACY: .98 BWI: 1.11 DCA: 1.25 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM shifts the heavy snow south of even DC. Only snows here 3-6 hours total. 0.75" plus and 1" plus slices through DC. 0.25" plus and 0.10" plus slices through NYC. Game, set, match. So, you're all in on the NAM, then? You realize how silly it is to pronounce this over based on that? C'mon you're better than that. Sure it may end up that way, but let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance says first. Also liking Doorman's analysis of what's actually going on out there vs. what was predicted in the last round of model runs - and not just because it might result in a bit more snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A true weenie doesn't give up. Lets just sit back and see what happens.It's over, don't be surprised if we get nothing more than a few snow showers later. You can hang your hat on the 4k NAM for now. Big win for the Euro ensembles that bailed late last week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 CYN? Not familiar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's over, don't be surprised if we get nothing more than a few snow showers later. You can hang your hat on the 4k NAM for now. Big win for the Euro ensembles that bailed late last week. Euro ensembles didn't bail until mid week. The GGEM,Euro,Euro Ensembles, GFS and GEFS all had 12+ inches for NYC during the week. Also, it isn't over until the storm is over. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SLAMSTORM22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM still isn't in its range yet...id like to be able to 100% say I'm joking but...it's the nam Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, you're all in on the NAM, then? You realize how silly it is to pronounce this over based on that? C'mon you're better than that. Sure it may end up that way, but let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance says first. Also liking Doorman's analysis of what's actually going on out there vs. what was predicted in the last round of model runs - and not just because it might result in a bit more snow.Find me a model that shows anything appreciable. 2-4" at best. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, you're all in on the NAM, then? You realize how silly it is to pronounce this over based on that? C'mon you're better than that. Sure it may end up that way, but let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance says first. Also liking Doorman's analysis of what's actually going on out there vs. what was predicted in the last round of model runs - and not just because it might result in a bit more snow. The discussion of reality v model is valid one in my opinion but it leads to an even more interesting question : if this reality is so radically different from model output why arent these models ingesting that info and spitting out a more northern solution? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Find me a model that shows anything appreciable. 2-4" at best. A shift north from the GFS will give NYC 3-6 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 CYN? Not familiar It's South Central Ocean County, Barnegat/Stafford area. I wasn't aware of what it was either, had to look it up on a google! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A shift north from the GFS will give NYC 3-6 inches. Good luck with that. Dry air will crush the northern edge of this baby. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The only model that did well weas the canadian. Euro and its ensembles had .8-1.0 for several runs under 100 hrs. Wont even mention the gfs which duped us thinking it was doing really good with the storm . Cant believe the canadian will win. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The only model that did well weas the canadian. Euro and its ensembles had .8-1.0 for several runs under 100 hrs. Wont even mention the gfs which duped us thinking it was doing really good with the storm . Cant believe the canadian will win. Yep. Canadian only had 1 run where it showed a lot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM still isn't in its range yet...id like to be able to 100% say I'm joking but...it's the nam The initial wave of precip the nam is 9 hrs out. Care to explain exactly WHEN it is in range? smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A shift north from the GFS will give NYC 3-6 inches.And what good will that do for me? It's been over up here for two days now and it looks like we're all going to suffer now equally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So, you're all in on the NAM, then? You realize how silly it is to pronounce this over based on that? C'mon you're better than that. Sure it may end up that way, but let's see what the rest of the 12Z guidance says first. Also liking Doorman's analysis of what's actually going on out there vs. what was predicted in the last round of model runs - and not just because it might result in a bit more snow. i appreciate doorman's posts, but they're all with a wink and a question mark. the models are reality with each passing hour. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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