Big Jims Videos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As of 0524 Mt holly has put us in warning criteria...maybe you should look before commenting .Old bridge is most definitely in an advisory, as is the rest of Middlesex County. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Reading through last night.. Many of you didn't understand why I said .25-.50 on last nights GFS won't add up to 2-5" first of all we aren't getting .50" of qpf its still trending south. second it has nothing to do with the temps .. And again ratios aren't guaranteed to be great stop saying it's going to be cold so ratios will be good. If you get hours of flurries and light snow it's not going to be 2-5" .. you need a burst of snow to see 2-5" whether its January or March day or night.. I'm sticking with a coating to 2" for everyone from NYC north.. maybe 3" or so well south of the city.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Reading through last night.. Many of you didn't understand why I said .25-.50 on last nights GFS won't add up to 2-5" first of all we aren't getting .50" of qpf its still trending south. second it has nothing to do with the temps .. And again ratios aren't guaranteed to be great stop saying it's going to be cold so ratios will be good. If you get hours of flurries and light snow it's not going to be 2-5" .. you need a burst of snow to see 2-5" whether its January or March day or night.. I'm sticking with a coating to 2" for everyone from NYC north.. maybe 3" or so well south of the city.. Bingo. On my site, my forecast from last night sounds and looks a lot like this. People are kidding themselves if that QPF is going to add up to the 3-6" and 4-8" amounts I'm seeing. I even am reluctant to have anything more than 4" or so North of Philly proper extended East. Time will tell, but this one fizzled and may not be done fizzling. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Bingo. On my site, my forecast from last night sounds and looks a lot like this. People are kidding themselves if that QPF is going to add up to the 3-6" and 4-8" amounts I'm seeing. I even am reluctant to have anything more than 4" or so North of Philly proper extended East. Time will tell, but this one fizzled and may not be done fizzling. From friday 6z i still cannot believe how this one pretty much fell of a huge cliff. Atleast we have friday to track still Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As of 0524 Mt holly has put us in warning criteria...maybe you should look before commenting . No. Monmouth > south is warning. Middlesex is Advisory. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lord Snot Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From friday 6z i still cannot believe how this one pretty much fell of a huge cliff. Atleast we have friday to track still You think Thurs Night into Friday is anything? I don't believe there is any more measurable snow this year. I had really hoped today would pan out, was banking on another foot for the snowpack, I still have hope we get at least 4+ but I do believe this was the last opportunity. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From friday 6z i still cannot believe how this one pretty much fell of a huge cliff. Atleast we have friday to track still To me, it was amazing how many people were NOT concerned once we had those 12z runs on Friday. It never really stopped from their except for one blip 6z run yesterday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From friday 6z i still cannot believe how this one pretty much fell of a huge cliff. Atleast we have friday to track still The two PV snows in January along the Arctic front were very rare events for our region. This event is more typical of what usually happens where the forecasts in the early days are initially too far north and we get a south correction under 72-96 hrs when a PV is involved. It seems like forecasts that hinge on PV placement can be the most difficult for models to get right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gotta watch what you wish for. Everyone wanted a potent pv so it would be cold enough for snow and look what happened. It shunted the banding to the south. And now we have strong hp which is going to erode the northern precip shield as well. Just not a pretty scenario for the LHV into NYC...this sucks even down my way towards philly. Maybe thurs-fri we can cash in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No. Monmouth > south is warning. Middlesex is Advisory. Sry , I got an alert at 524 that we were in a warning... Weather bug mistake.. I tried to upload a screen shot wouldn't let me.. thanks I guess it was a mistake on there part. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 1-3 seems like the appropriate call for the immediate nyc area.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thinking Friday is going to be a mix at best for NYC and LI exactly what Upton is forecasting! !!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thinking Friday is going to be a mix at best for NYC and LI exactly what Upton is forecasting! !!! Friday?!? it was hard enough to nail down this storm a day in advance - im giving no stock in a friday system lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
REDMK6GLI Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The two PV snows in January along the Arctic front were very rare events for our region. This event is more typical of what usually happens where the forecasts in the early days are initially too far north and we get a south correction under 72-96 hrs when a PV is involved. It seems like forecasts that hinge on PV placement can be the most difficult for models to get right. I believe that after the friday threat if we dont get any measurable snow from that i feel our measurable snows have pretty much ended for the season. Im not saying its over but we're going to start to have less wiggle room than we had earlier in the season as we are going to start fighting climo more and more chris. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bluewave Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I believe that after the friday threat if we dont get any measurable snow from that i feel our measurable snows have pretty much ended for the season. Im not saying its over but we're going to start to have less wiggle room than we had earlier in the season as we are going to start fighting climo more and more chris. I guess the reason that there is such a big gap between 47-48 and 95-96 is that 95-96 was such a rare event even with the record snows here in recent years. I would be happy just to get past the 63" mark at NYC before the season ends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif i will say 6 inches could stretch out to the 1020mb line shown here old school 1020 rule ....... http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif current 500mb http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= nice hit for the Metro.... still my call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sry , I got an alert at 524 that we were in a warning... Weather bug mistake.. I tried to upload a screen shot wouldn't let me.. thanks I guess it was a mistake on there part. Wandering off topic here, but sometimes you have to watch out for these services tying your location to your reporting station instead of your actual lat/lon. Check and see if your reporting station is Belmar (which is the case for a lot of our local area). If so, that could explain the glitch, since Belmar is (obv.) in Monmouth county. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A_24h.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hr500bw.gif i will say 6 inches could stretch out to the 1020mb line shown here old school 1020 rule ....... op 1.gif http://www.opc.ncep.noaa.gov/shtml/A_24hrbw.gif current 500mb c5.GIF http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/dlmmain.php?&basin=atlantic&sat=wg8∏=dlm2&zoom=&time= nice hit for the Metro.... still my call im a newbie but which is the 1020 line? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 im a newbie but which is the 1020 line? ok nj ?? and I underlined the word-----could--- take a look west for a sec on this 1033HP pusher..... is set back -IMHO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 im a newbie but which is the 1020 line? Cuts right near Sussex. It's the "20" isobar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 op 1.jpg ok nj ?? and I underlined the word-----could--- many thanks and I understand you are speaking potential, not saying it will - no worries here, I try not to ever take things verbatim... thanks again for the reply ill keep an eye on the H pressure out west.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Found this to be an odd headline in the Mt. Holly AFD: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... **WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF I78 AND ADVISORY ALONG I78 NORTH** Clearly as per their county map, the warnings are only for counties well south of 78 (Mercer-Monmouth and south of there) and per the snowfall map, I-78 looks to be coincident with the 4" snowfall line, well below the 6" needed for warnings; plus, nowhere else in the AFD discusses snow that heavy near 78. Almost makes me wonder if they were going to include Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex (and the Lehigh Valley) in their warnings and then decided not to, at the last minute, but forgot to delete that text. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 PV influence stretching out more {east ---west} then dropping south??? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-24 looks like it from here Moisture Transport .... atm http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU4Real Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Does anybody have any thoughts on how this low pressure over Hudson Bay may interact with / influence the PV lobe? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It looks like those south of I-195 will do well. Those 10 miles north fringed, those 20 miles north not much, 30 miles cloudy/cold but the first frontal passage precip could over perform hopefully, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hey DM, I like your posts, keep up the good work Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Found this to be an odd headline in the Mt. Holly AFD: LONG TERM /MONDAY THROUGH SATURDAY/... **WINTER STORM WARNING SOUTH OF I78 AND ADVISORY ALONG I78 NORTH** Clearly as per their county map, the warnings are only for counties well south of 78 (Mercer-Monmouth and south of there) and per the snowfall map, I-78 looks to be coincident with the 4" snowfall line, well below the 6" needed for warnings; plus, nowhere else in the AFD discusses snow that heavy near 78. Almost makes me wonder if they were going to include Hunterdon-Somerset-Middlesex (and the Lehigh Valley) in their warnings and then decided not to, at the last minute, but forgot to delete that text. http://forecast.weather.gov/product.php?site=NWS&issuedby=PHI&product=AFD&format=CI&version=1&glossary=0&highlight=off In my mind I-195 should be the diving line especially when a chink of Middlesex is more south than Monmouth or mercer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 In my mind I-195 should be the diving line especially when a chink of Middlesex is more south than Monmouth or mercer. In my mind I-195 should be the diving line especially when a chink of Middlesex is more south than Monmouth or mercer. Driscoll Bridge is the unofficial divide between North Jersey and Central...others peg it at Elizabeth. Woodbridge is not really North Jersey nor is it really Central NJ. People in Jackson consider it Central, to me that's's South.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gravitylover Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This has been a fun one to track hasn't it? If you're right, and I think you have been all along, it looks like the moisture is farther north at this point than it was supposed to be, the HP sitting off the SE coast will keep it moving north/northeast rather than east and out to sea and the cold push will drop in behind rather than on top and keep a conveyor belt of GOM moisture going rather than squash the whole mess to the south of us. Am I reading you right? PV influence stretching out more {east ---west} then dropping south??? http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-24 looks like it from here Moisture Transport .... atm mt.gif http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Driscoll Bridge is the unofficial divide between North Jersey and Central...others peg it at Elizabeth. Woodbridge is not really North Jersey nor is it really Central NJ. People in Jackson consider it Central, to me that's's South.... I was speaking of this storm specifically based on the latest guidance. i195 looks like a decent dividing line of where the heavier accums will setup (south of there) to being fringed (north of there) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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