SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Only one of the top 15 analogs over the east at 48 hours from the updated 00z runs has 6" or more of snow for NYC. All of them are based off the NAM so basically all of them are bunk as the NAM largely disagreed with most of the models at 00Z, especially for PHL and CNTL and SRN NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dino Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NOAA has held strong ALL DAY for central Suffolk to get 5 to 9 inches in the local forecast. I wonder what info they know that leads them to think that...maybe they expected it to bump north again all along? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to the map that I posted, one more bump north and NYC can see 6+ I like your map better than mine, but they don't match and the 0.33" doesn't support more than 4" at 10:1 Unless I'm missing something, the Euro map that Snow88 posted has Staten Island (and me in Metuchen) at 6-7", Manhattan at 5-6" and the Bronx at 4-5". Is that map not valid for some reason? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Temps are going to be in the low 20s on Monday with light to moderate snow. The ratios will be good. Again. .. surface has very little to do with snowfall ratios Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hiker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NOAA has held strong ALL DAY for central Suffolk to get 5 to 9 inches in the local forecast. I wonder what info they know that leads them to think that...maybe they expected it to bump north again all along? Could be. I don't pretend to know their actual thoughts and discussions, other than through the "Forecast Discussion" link. It appears there is still a low confidence to the snowfall totals at this time. Lowering them at this juncture only to have to possibly raise them again as the storm approaches and delivers is bad from the public perspective, IMHO. In other words, yoyoing isn't sound forecasting. OTOH, dropping the totals once and accurately - if need be - only goes to strengthen the overall prediction cycle. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 here is hoping for a bit of a last minute surprise maybe Models not reading something the right way ect and things trend in our favor. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ed Lizard Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Again. .. surface has very little to do with snowfall ratios GFS during the snow shows saturation up to near 200 mb, I'm not an expert, but I'd hope that is cold enough for decent dendrite growth. Of course, windy above 800 mb, but if all the snow flakes are moving along in the wind, I'd *hope* it wouldn't damage the crystals/limit growth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Unless I'm missing something, the Euro map that Snow88 posted has Staten Island (and me in Metuchen) at 6-7", Manhattan at 5-6" and the Bronx at 4-5". Is that map not valid for some reason? DT/WxRisk showing that same map and discussing the same amounts I did; see the link below. Interesting that the Euro (and GFS with almost as muc as the Euro) now show close to 6" warning snows from NYC on southward, and that the NWS has not budged from their predictions of 6" or more from NYC on southward, despite what looked like maybe only 2-4" in NYC and 3-6" in CNJ earlier today on most models. Perhaps they know what they're doing, lol. After all the ups and downs, I would be very happy with 6-7" (or 4-5" really, but I'll take 9", thank you). On that note, it's about time for bed... https://www.facebook.com/#!/WxRisk/photos/a.148807335166533.25889.129478830432717/654813657899229/?type=1&theater Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 6z NAM rolling... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 6z NAM rolling... For sanity reasons I'd advise against looking. Trust me on this one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For sanity reasons I'd advise against looking. Trust me on this one hidden meaning or just because it's the NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For sanity reasons I'd advise against looking. Trust me on this one I had too haha...from it's 00z solution it didn't have any of SNJ in 6 inches..now they're in the 6...very sharp northern cutoff though...but still a very very very slight shift in the "right direction" lol...a little shift north from 00z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The Nam is really close for those south of the city, hopefully we see a slight bump north with the 12z runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just a sick gradient on the nam. .5+ Monmouth to .1 NYC. F'ing 2-6-10. All over again but further south. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rcad1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Upton has changed the watch to a wwa for NYC, LI and NE N.J. for 3-6" of snow!!!!!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE NEW YORK NY 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...SNOW TONIGHT INTO MONDAY... NJZ006-105>108-NYZ072>075-078>081-176>179-022015- /O.UPG.KOKX.WS.A.0005.140302T2000Z-140303T2000Z/ /O.NEW.KOKX.WW.Y.0008.140302T2300Z-140303T1700Z/ HUDSON-WESTERN ESSEX-EASTERN ESSEX-WESTERN UNION-EASTERN UNION- NEW YORK (MANHATTAN)-BRONX-RICHMOND (STATEN ISLAND)- KINGS (BROOKLYN)-NORTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHEASTERN SUFFOLK- SOUTHWESTERN SUFFOLK-SOUTHEASTERN SUFFOLK-NORTHERN QUEENS- NORTHERN NASSAU-SOUTHERN QUEENS-SOUTHERN NASSAU- 318 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY... THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS ISSUED A WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY FOR SNOW...WHICH IS IN EFFECT FROM 6 PM THIS EVENING TO NOON EST MONDAY. THE WINTER STORM WATCH IS NO LONGER IN EFFECT. * LOCATIONS...NEW YORK CITY...LONG ISLAND AND PORTIONS OF NORTHEAST NEW JERSEY. * HAZARD TYPES...SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS... SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 3 TO 6 INCHES. * WINDS...NORTH 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. * TEMPERATURES...IN THE TEENS TO AROUND 20 TONIGHT...RISING TO THE MIDDLE 20S MONDAY. * VISIBILITIES...ONE QUARTER TO ONE HALF MILE AT TIMES. * TIMING...TONIGHT INTO MONDAY. * IMPACTS...HAZARDOUS TRAVEL DUE TO REDUCED VISIBILITIES AND SNOW ACCUMULATIONS...ESPECIALLY DURING THE MONDAY MORNING COMMUTE. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rjay Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
readingaccount1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wwa middlesex county 4-7. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CPcantmeasuresnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought the 6Z NAM made some positive strides, certainly an improvement from 0Z. I'd like NYC, CPK in particular, to get 6.0 inches even and move into the number 2 spot. That will still leave them over 12 inches fom the record, but at least would give them an outside shot at breaking it with almost the entire month of March remaining. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Winter weather advisory with 4-7? Wouldn't that be a warning unless I assume they are referring to duration. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Do you think south shore LI can get into northern edge of the best 700 lift and heavy snow band with 1 inch per hour rates, and get to 8 inches. I think there is 25 percent chance. DC is aimed at the 14 inch snowfall and near jackpot. Compared to them we get jacks*it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JetsPens87 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Do you think South Shore LI can get 1 inch per hour rates at some point and 7 inch snowfall total. I could envision the heavy snow band making it here. Maybe 10 percent chance of a foot if it goes 100 miles further north, or last minute surprise tomorrow. No And of course you can And 0 In all honesty though... No I can't envision any of that given this current setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mikehobbyst Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No And of course you can And 0 In all honesty though... No I can't envision any of that given this current setup. JetPens87, what do you see for LI in terms of snow growth, 700 mb VV, snowfall rates and total final accumulation ? One final question, do you see an end to the consistent Arctic cold and snow threats by 3/15 or 3/20 ??? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm under a warning.... Old bridge NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Saturn510 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Old bridge is a weather advisory. As is all of middlesex county Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What skid the 6z GFS have for nyc, monmou Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UlsterCountySnowZ Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Noaa has my forecast at little or no snow accumulation lol oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What skid the 6z GFS have for nyc, monmou Here you go.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
David-LI Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS finally gave in to king NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowblind Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Old bridge is a weather advisory. As is all of middlesex county As of 0524 Mt holly has put us in warning criteria...maybe you should look before commenting . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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