SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yhbrooklyn Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z tomorrow should really tell the tale. Sorry, gets me every time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 3/2 00Z Summary NYC, NE-NJ, CNJ, LI SREF: 0.40 - 0.50 / 3 - 5 snow NAM: 0.20 - 0.35 / 1 - 3 snow RGEM: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 snow GFS: 0.45 - 0.55 / 3 - 6 snow UKMET: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 inches snow GGEM : 0.40 - 0.60 / 4 - 7 inches Thanks for posting. One question, though: since CNJ is a bit south of NENJ/NYC/LI and the snow gradient increases from north to south, shouldn't CNJ have at least slightly higher QPF/snowfall (unless you're factoring in some correction for ratios)? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Everything went north at 0z. Lets see if the Euro trends north. We still have time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks for posting. One question, though: since CNJ is a bit south of NENJ/NYC/LI and the snow gradient increases from north to south, shouldn't CNJ have at least slightly higher QPF/snowfall (unless you're factoring in some correction for ratios)? the higher end of the range is the cnj area mercer Middlesex, monmouth etc... im being conservative with a standard 10:1 ratio. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We have lost the JMA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We have lost the JMA Boo hoo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 These Models are enough to drive U to drink as is this storm... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Euro Initialized Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The WAA precipitation is starting to cross into Western PA now. Will be interesting to watch the radar for trends. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The PV lobe is about as far south as it will get at hour 24, wonder if this will try and sneak north with the second wave. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thinking this will take a tick to the north. Moderate snow hour 36 from 84 south. Really tight gradient. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Euro bumping north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The southern stream vort is definitely a bit more amplified and the PV is so progressive that it's actually moving back into more of a west to east orientation as the second wave approaches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thru hr 42 .25+ for NYC .5 to ttn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 A bump north from the Euro but not big enough. Although, it is nice to see the 0z models bump north. We still have all day tomorrow for another bump to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 4-6 for NYC south on euro Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Light to moderate snow continues hour 42, Looking good for the DC crew. Hour 48 snow from TTN south. 0.25"+ north of TTN and south of 84 0.50"+ TTN to Wilmington 0.75"+ for the rest of SNJ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Snow maps show 2-4" from 78 north to 84 including NYC and LI 4-6" for CNJ 6-8" south of PHL 6-10" for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Snow maps show 2-4" from 78 north to 84 including NYC and LI 4-6" for CNJ 6-8" south of PHL 6-10" for DC. More than 2-4 for NYC. 3-6. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I didn't know better I'd tell people radar looks kind of promising. I think NYC may get into the 4+ up along the immediate south coast of New England. DC 8-12. That's a forecast vs model out put. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 IMO the Euro was very close to pulling a rabbit out of the hat, this one isn't over yet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That was a somewhat decent shift north..25-45 miles ...still heaviest precip into SNJ...what a horrible day on the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really hoping the models can throw us a bone tomorrow although tonight's runs were more encouraging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 More than 2-4 for NYC. 3-6. Here we go again Look closely, the 4-6" contour runs through Sandy Hook. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 IMO the Euro was very close to pulling a rabbit out of the hat, this one isn't over yet. The Euro bumped about 25 miles north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 IMO the Euro was very close to pulling a rabbit out of the hat, this one isn't over yet. Isn't that sad to say (you're right), but especially with less than 24 hours out and still no real consensus on these models...smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Here we go again Look closely, the 4-6" contour runs through Sandy Hook. I did and it shows 3-6 inches. Anyway, good trends tonight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 2 things are certain : trends today have ceased southern swing and nudged slightly up from 2-4 closer to 3-6 IMHO & also From Philly south to DC they look to be in 8+ zone with CNJ in 6+. So I day say NYC proper will wake up to WWA with possibility of being bumped up into low end warning ( I have some hope the 1st wave will overperform BUT I dont think anything dramatic takes place with 1nd SW EXCEPT if the sampling full at this point shows the LOBE , the dreaded lobe in WNY weaker than progged- I give that 10% chance of verification) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The Euro bumped about 25 miles north. Look at H5, the PV orientation was improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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