viking70 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 So I have just started again following this storm after giving up on the storm after yesterdays model runs. Thought I would give it one last look. It seems to me, and correct me if I am wrong, that 18z models were having this storm done in NYC area and north and west by early morning, but 00Z GFS continues snowfall through the morning hours and is back to having snow continue into the afternoon. Am I reading this right? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The difference is that WxBell uses a standard 10:1 ratio, while Instant Weather Maps takes ratios into account. That's why you're seeing 5-6" of snow being shown off of 0.40-0.50" of precip near the metro area. Oh ok I didn't know that. My concern with that though would be if it just factors in temperature and qpf and not so much the actual banding that is occurring. As was mentioned above, without being in one of the better bands of snow, we'd be hard pressed to reach those snow amounts. Situations without at least one heavier band usually result in a few inches of snow or so Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS: NYC: .47" JFK: .55" EWR: .44" LGA: .48" BDR: .32" ISP: .50" These are solid 4"-7" amounts on the GFS. I hate to be an IMBY but what is GFS for HPN, similar to BDR? Thanks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 VERY GOOD point, and one that is not mentioned enough. Light snow and flurries for hours and hours will not add up. A heavy band for a couple hours would Sent from my iPhone The bulk falls at night with temps in the teens/ low 20s. We can easily pull out 3-5" if the gfs is right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I hate to be an IMBY but what is GFS for HPN, similar to BDR? Thanks. .36" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The speed of the vort lobe rotating around the PV has been faster the last 2 models runs, as a result it clears into NRN New England by 09-12z Monday AM which may be allowing the precip to come north as the RGEM started showing at 18Z and the GFS shows now...there still is the weaker lobe behind it dropping over Michigan and WRN NY though, if it were not for that piece we'd be in business. ...the same reason above could be why the 21-06Z period no longer looks as snowy as it originally did because that lobe is to our north earlier,I noticed that too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thunder7842 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Problem is most of this precip is strung out so it might be .25-.50 qpf but thy won't accumulate 2-5" unless we get some good bands in here.. Huh? Most of the snow falls overnight and early morning when you don't have to worry about sun angle, and with temps below freezing. So why wouldn't every flake accumulate? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just issued a forecast 2"-5" accumulation for NYC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just issued a forecast 2"-5" accumulation for NYC Do you work for NWS or a local station? Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just issued a forecast 2"-5" accumulation for NYC Okay, then I am good company with 2-4". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Huh? Most of the snow falls overnight and early morning when you don't have to worry about sun angle, and with temps below freezing. So why wouldn't every flake accumulate?Yeah temps look to be in the teens by morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Do you work for NWS or a local station?Sent from my iPhone For the NYC department of Sanitation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
viking70 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 .36" Thank you. And for all those movie buffs out there I think this applies--" just when I thought I was out, they pull me back in!" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the NYC department of Sanitation. 2-5" is definitely a good forecast.....it covers the lower end and the higher amounts of what is possible with this storm. Obviously it COULD be just an inch or if a miracle happens, 10".....but the chances of that I'd say are about 3% right now Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sanman 06 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the NYC department of Sanitation.Really me too..what garage.. im in SI2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 For the NYC department of Sanitation. I think I remember that job opening and being posted online, was it about 6-7 years ago? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wannabehippie Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS: NYC: .47" JFK: .55" EWR: .44" LGA: .48" BDR: .32" ISP: .50" These are solid 4"-7" amounts on the GFS. Might even be slightly higher with the good ratios that I think are going to come out of this storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Anything on the GGEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Very close to its baby brother the RGEM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Edge Weather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Anything on the GGEM? It did not budge. Same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It did not budge. Same. Wasn't the gem higher than the nam and GFS at 18z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wasn't the gem higher than the nam and GFS at 18z? Yeah it's not bad.....around 3-4" for the area Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wasn't the gem higher than the nam and GFS at 18z? Wb showing .6- .7 for us.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well Unless something dramatic happens this is looking like a High end advisory low end warning event for most of the area obviously more of a warning once U get into Central NJ. I think a lot of people are not that excited as the negative tends for past day and a half has taken some luster off the event plus it looked like a 8+ event as of Thurs now we will be lucky to get half of that it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wb showing .6- .7 for us..Post?? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 3/2 00Z Summary NYC, NE-NJ, CNJ, LI SREF: 0.40 - 0.50 / 3 - 5 snow NAM: 0.20 - 0.35 / 1 - 3 snow RGEM: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 snow GFS: 0.45 - 0.55 / 3 - 6 snow UKMET: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 inches snow GGEM : 0.40 - 0.60 / 4 - 7 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wolfie09 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wb maps are allowed to be posted as long as it is not the euro, if its against forum rules it can be deleted.. Ggem Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would take that gfs run in a heartbeat at this point, would probably see low end warning if it was correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Besides the NAM, the GFS,CMC,(RUC-Short Range-actaully very north) did trend a little north and SREF went south only a tick, king euro is next, but is this a trend? Or the models playing games? The heaviest precip is still to the south of NYC on these models though. 12z tomorrow should really tell the tale. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.