IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Starting to cool now hour 21. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The GFS actually looks a tick north. Or should I say more expansive with precip. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Tight north to south snow gradient. Light snow just reaches the north shore of Long Island. I bet it shows 1-3" for NYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maybe wrong, could be 2-4". Moderate snow barely gets into NYC briefly at 36 hours.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS has very light activity well into Monday. In all honesty I think it was the slightest step in the right direction. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Close to 6 inches for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
green tube Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maybe wrong, could be 2-4". Moderate snow barely gets into NYC briefly at 36 hours.. more. iwmaps has about 6" in the city Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is a pretty good run for NYC and south. 5"-6" of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SleetStormNJ Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gonna be a tight one with this. Seems to be better agreement between GFS and RGEM now. NAM is well somewhere beyond left field right now by itself. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Am I missing something? I'm only seeing 3-4" most for NYC....not these 5-6" amounts. And RGEM is 1-3" NYC/NENJ Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
monmouthcounty11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gonna be a tight one with this. Seems to be better agreement between GFS and RGEM now. NAM is well somewhere beyond left field right now by itself. The RGEM was not that good or different from the NAM, it had .25-.3 QPF all snow for KNYC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 more. iwmaps has about 6" in the city Okay, I'd like to see it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 more. iwmaps has about 6" in the city Is there same gradient as previous runs north to south, or is it uniform? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Am I missing something? I'm only seeing 3-4" most for NYC....not these 5-6" amounts. And RGEM is 1-3" NYC/NENJ Sent from my iPhone Gfs is. 47" for nyc Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
simpsonsbuff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030200&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=060 and here's the precipitation map http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030200&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=060 Okay, I'd like to see it . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 more. iwmaps has about 6" in the city Interesting....wxbell maps show 3-4" accumulated Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Am I missing something? I'm only seeing 3-4" most for NYC....not these 5-6" amounts. And RGEM is 1-3" NYC/NENJ Sent from my iPhone We got to see the actual QPF and surface temps to make our forecasts. Right now, I am just eye balling.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SACRUS Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 3/2 00Z Summary NYC, NE-NJ, CNJ (lower end of the range north / higher end south) NAM: 0.20 - 0.35 / 1 - 3 inches RGEM: 0.25 - 0.40 / 2 - 4 inches GFS: 0.45 - 0.55 / 3 - 6 inches Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gfs is. 47" for nyc Thanks, if that number verifies it would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ag3 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS: NYC: .47" JFK: .55" EWR: .44" LGA: .48" BDR: .32" ISP: .50" These are solid 4"-7" amounts on the GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Id seriously be perfectly fine and happy with anything over 3" at this point Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherFox Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS: NYC: .47" JFK: .55" EWR: .44" LGA: .48" BDR: .32" ISP: .50" These are solid 4"-7" amounts on the GFS. Good work, ag3 and thanks a lot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 i dont know how accurate the map is, but it has 6" of snow on a line from philly to about NYC. looks like 7-8" monmouth county.I think there is about 0.1 to 0.15" that is not frozen.....that could be skewing the snow amounts on those maps? Wxbell maps are usually overdone but they do a good job frozen vs non frozen and they show just 3-4" frozenSent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 i dont know how accurate the map is, but it has 6" of snow on a line from philly to about NYC. looks like 7-8" monmouth county. I think that the maps account ratios into the snowfall amounts on IWM I'd take it in a heartbeat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Lol I find it humorous.....I've watched my accuweather forecast online go from 1-3", to 2-4", to 3-6", to 4-8", to 6-10", to 4-8", to 3-6", and now 2-4" haha Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Problem is most of this precip is strung out so it might be .25-.50 qpf but thy won't accumulate 2-5" unless we get some good bands in here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Problem is most of this precip is strung out so it might be .25-.50 qpf but thy won't accumulate 2-5" unless we get some good bands in here.. VERY GOOD point, and one that is not mentioned enough. Light snow and flurries for hours and hours will not add up. A heavy band for a couple hours would Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlueSkiesFading Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think there is about 0.1 to 0.15" that is not frozen.....that could be skewing the snow amounts on those maps? Wxbell maps are usually overdone but they do a good job frozen vs non frozen and they show just 3-4" frozen Sent from my iPhone The difference is that WxBell uses a standard 10:1 ratio, while Instant Weather Maps takes ratios into account. That's why you're seeing 5-6" of snow being shown off of 0.40-0.50" of precip near the metro area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The speed of the vort lobe rotating around the PV has been faster the last 2 models runs, as a result it clears into NRN New England by 09-12z Monday AM which may be allowing the precip to come north as the RGEM started showing at 18Z and the GFS shows now...there still is the weaker lobe behind it dropping over Michigan and WRN NY though, if it were not for that piece we'd be in business. ...the same reason above could be why the 21-06Z period no longer looks as snowy as it originally did because that lobe is to our north earlier, Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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