MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looking at radar I don't see why snow does not make it to NYC...they will def get a coating to inch I'm calling for 1-3 for my area. South shore of NYC FTW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherpruf Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I was visiting my mother yesterday and she showed me an ad she received in the mail using a photo of her house to try and sell her something or other. I got a good chuckle out of the date of the photo: I know this won't pacify most on this board, but March '01 is still the biggest March snowstorm of the past 45+ years in Smithtown. It wasn't so big at my mother's location, but still significant. It never covered the grass here in central NJ. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sickman Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 I was visiting my mother yesterday and she showed me an ad she received in the mail using a photo of her house to try and sell her something or other. I got a good chuckle out of the date of the photo: I know this won't pacify most on this board, but March '01 is still the biggest March snowstorm of the past 45+ years in Smithtown. It wasn't so big at my mother's location, but still significant. I have no idea who took that photo or why, but glad they chose that day to take it. That's what made it even more painful for me. It was so bloody close. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NYStorm Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I disagree with this statement. If you're forecasting amounts 4 days out, that is more modelology than meteorology. I would think that even most amateurs know that forecasting amounts that far out is risky. Completely agree. People need to stop "wishcasting" or banking on model outputs 3-5 days or more in advance. We criticize the people that post model totals on facebook or elsewhere on the internet far out in advance. Nothing wrong with enthusiasm on meteorology or snowstorms. Nothing wrong with wanting to see how mother nature can show us the amazing power of a major snowstorm. But I think people should accept each model run on its own merits and treat each run objectively. Ultimately, they are not the be all end all. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It does seem that forecasters including the nws put out accumulation maps much earlier than in the past... that leads to the problem we saw today. Its ok to talk about the potential snow amounts in a writeup but when the general public sees a map several days out, thats what they go with. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jm1220 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm calling for 1-3 for my area. South shore of NYC FTW. The radar doesn't have a lot of northward progression right now and likely won't as the PV lobe keeps squashing it south. Wouldn't surprise me if we wake up to bare ground or a minor coating, and then clouds breaking up by mid morning. There's also tons of dry air to contend with so a good amount of what does fall here likely will just be virga. PV squash-jobs are the worst. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snywx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 01-02 as a whole had more chances than 11-12 did, 11-12 was almost no snow chances ever, I believe one storm in February missed us over VA and NC....01-02 there was a few close calls such as 1/6 where they got destroyed in NE PA and the Hudson Valley and we were 35 and rain. But isn't that suppose to happen more often than not lol.. Oops did I say that in here.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Lol wow this backs my point nicely. Is this real did governor Christie order a state of emergency for New Jersey for "all new jerseyans to please stay off the roads for heavy snow and hazardous travel tonight" even the governor still thinks it's going to snow because he is going off the nws forecast from this afternoon, and all state offices are closed Monday.. For flurries !! I'm so happy he did this it really shows something needs to be done with NWS Did he actually cite the NWS in his statement? Your constant NWS bashing in this thread is exactly why nobody from Upton posts here. This was a difficult storm to forecast, the Upton bashing was completely uncalled for. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Did he actually cite the NWS in his statement? Your constant NWS bashing in this thread is exactly why nobody from Upton posts here. This was a difficult storm to forecast, the Upton bashing was completely uncalled for. It was not a difficult storm to forecast at all!!!.. As every CT station correctly forecasted it from 48-72 hours out as well as I did and half the members on this board, if we forecast it then so can the NWS. Also having winter storm warnings out when they knew the storm was not going to hit caused New Jersey to issue a State of Emergency.. 3 storms horribly forecasted in a row, when most in this thread forecasted better that is my point and something has to be done.. They know how to forecast and are much more educated than we are, but they need to update their forecasts when they know that he has to be changed.. Millions of people have the weatherbug app and use it to make important business decisions and it is connected to the weather service forecast.. They do not know the weather like us, and when they wake up and see 4-8" forecast for that night and the next morning they will most likely change their plans only to wake up to not even a flurry.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 It was not a difficult storm to forecast at all!!!.. As every CT station correctly forecasted it from 48-72 hours out as well as I did and half the members on this board, if we forecast it then so can the NWS. Also having winter storm warnings out when they knew the storm was not going to hit caused New Jersey to issue a State of Emergency.. 3 storms horribly forecasted in a row, when most in this thread forecasted better that is my point and something has to be done.. They know how to forecast and are much more educated than we are, but they need to update their forecasts when they know that he has to be changed.. Millions of people have the weatherbug app and use it to make important business decisions and it is connected to the weather service forecast.. They do not know the weather like us, and when they wake up and see 4-8" forecast for that night and the next morning they will most likely change their plans only to wake up to not even a flurry.. GFS and Euro both respectively spat out .4+ and .33 for NYC Sunday 00z runs. It was a tough forecast, especially when your number 1 model says .33 QPF with potential for higher ratios 12 hrs before wave one, unless you live in Connecticut. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 GFS and Euro both respectively spat out .4+ and .33 for NYC Sunday 00z runs. It was a tough forecast, especially when your number 1 model says .33 QPF with potential for higher ratios 12 hrs before wave one, unless you live in Connecticut. Yes but the trend was less and less and less. You can't take the model verbatim when it's trending. I think central jersey on south is where the forecast got tough. But from NYC on north it was pretty clear there was going to be minimal accumulations. Like I was saying .1" qpf every 6 hours technically adds up to .3" qpf but that's never going to add up to 3" of snow. The easiest forecast was CT and Saturday night upton was forecasting 6-8" for the shore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 So what "needs" to be done? Some people actually think that the NWS needs to be done away with, which is absolutely wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Yes but the trend was less and less and less. You can't take the model verbatim when it's trending. I think central jersey on south is where the forecast got tough. But from NYC on north it was pretty clear there was going to be minimal accumulations. Like I was saying .1" qpf every 6 hours technically adds up to .3" qpf but that's never going to add up to 3" of snow. The easiest forecast was CT and Saturday night upton was forecasting 6-8" for the shore I can can only think the seasonal trend of northwest 48 to 12 hours before many events this year was on their minds as well. IMO Boxing Day was a much larger bust, despite it being heaven for snow lovers. CPC NWS and the vast majority of for profit services were calling for flurries when we all here knew it was coming and going to be big. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 So what "needs" to be done? Some people actually think that the NWS needs to be done away with, which is absolutely wrong. Well I love their forecast discussions, and learn a lot by reading them. They definitely are the most important department for our weather. I just ask that they update the forecast earlier. And try to be as accurate as they can as soon as possible. And not hold onto a forecast for so long when they know it's going to be wrong. Do you agree with that? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I can can only think the seasonal trend of northwest 48 to 12 hours before many events this year was on their minds as well. IMO Boxing Day was a much larger bust, despite it being heaven for snow lovers. CPC NWS and the vast majority of for profit services were calling for flurries when we all here knew it was coming and going to be big. True, but the seasonal trend was more for January and first few storms of February. And they all trended NW out of no where it seems and really late. It seems lately the trend has been SE.. After that storm that nailed the cape last second and GFS was the only model to show us in the game, then it never really snowed, it seems like our lucked has flipped.. Plus this storm was the opposite, looked great then trended SE 72 hrs out.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 In general, I would agree. I have no idea what their thought process was, though, so any criticisms I have can only go so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 In general, I would agree. I have no idea what their thought process was, though, so any criticisms I have can only go so far.Fair point. Maybe they should write a review on what went right/wrong every storm like a forecast wrap-up. So we can learn from our mistakes.. I'm sure they were looking at things we didn't even think about to come up with that forecast. There is the pre-storm discussion but maybe we need post storm discussions? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Mitchel Volk Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Some times the NWS over predicts snowfall, but overall they have improved greatly since the 60's and 70's. I have a lot of respect from them and the forecast discussions from the PHL, NYC and the Boston office. They are really well written with a great depth of synoptic meteorology. They might have been slow to adapt to the southeast trend of the models from the last storm, but the models during the past few years would trend this way only to trend back to the northwest so I understand. My only gripe with them is the CPK snowfall measurements, this needs to be improved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Fair point. Maybe they should write a review on what went right/wrong every storm like a forecast wrap-up. So we can learn from our mistakes.. I'm sure they were looking at things we didn't even think about to come up with that forecast. There is the pre-storm discussion but maybe we need post storm discussions? Now there IS a GREAT idea. Science , at its best, is about never stopping the learning process in order to improve the craft: applies in engineering, medicine & metreology and many other similar frameworks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Some times the NWS over predicts snowfall, but overall they have improved greatly since the 60's and 70's. I have a lot of respect from them and the forecast discussions from the PHL, NYC and the Boston office. They are really well written with a great depth of synoptic meteorology. They might have been slow to adapt to the southeast trend of the models from the last storm, but the models during the past few years would trend this way only to trend back to the northwest so I understand. My only gripe with them is the CPK snowfall measurements, this needs to be improved. I have great respect with everything they do except yes a few climate site snow reports. CPK BDR and yes over-predicting snow sometimes like we all do but mostly not willing to change snow forecasts occasionally. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Some times the NWS over predicts snowfall, but overall they have improved greatly since the 60's and 70's. I have a lot of respect from them and the forecast discussions from the PHL, NYC and the Boston office. They are really well written with a great depth of synoptic meteorology. They might have been slow to adapt to the southeast trend of the models from the last storm, but the models during the past few years would trend this way only to trend back to the northwest so I understand. My only gripe with them is the CPK snowfall measurements, this needs to be improved. Being 15 miles fom JFK I can tell you JFk is a FAR bigger problem of a reporting station- consistently at least 20% under reported , not 1 storm but 10, and on a yearly basis too. Even if you check out mega noreasters you would be hard pressed to find JFK in top 5 reporting stations in any given storm - yes there r some climetological reasons but there are many instances when I have measured 3-4 more inches in 1ft+ storm and this is simply unacceptable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Now there IS a GREAT idea. Science , at its best, is about never stopping the learning process in order to improve the craft: applies in engineering, medicine & metreology and many other similar frameworks. You know I think there is enough dead time on boring sunny and dry days to really dug into which model performed best with certain features on past storms, and why things worked or didn't work out like we or the models thought. I don't know if something kind of like this exists already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 I have great respect with everything they do except yes a few climate site snow reports. CPK BDR and yes over-predicting snow sometimes like we all do but mostly not willing to change snow forecasts occasionally. This was also an unprecedented event in that the models started trending on Friday and never stopped..right up until he event. So even lowering amounts to 3-6 or 2-4 still would have been too high since most saw nothing or less than an inch in Upton's territory. All the storms that trended north a few days out eventually stopped so they had to figure the southward trend was somewhat overdone and the models would either stop trending or overcorrect Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 You know I think there is enough dead time on boring sunny and dry days to really dug into which model performed best with certain features on past storms, and why things worked or didn't work out like we or the models thought. I don't know if something kind of like this exists already? I have seen BOX do it in the past. Despite deep respect for Upton I prefer how detailed on a consistent basis BOX is with discussions once they get within 96 hours of an event. Upton doesnt deleve as much as they should into theory or rational behind the sensible weather forcast. Lets face laymen dont read these discussions- only Mets & amateurists. One set is equipped to fully understand & the latter set can learn a great deal of the discussions were more detailed. and in the end the mets at Upton arent gods, everyone is prone to making errors. They bat in my view upwards of 90% which is great but why not reach for 100% ? by reviewing and learning post storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Absolute Humidity Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 True, but the seasonal trend was more for January and first few storms of February. And they all trended NW out of no where it seems and really late. It seems lately the trend has been SE.. After that storm that nailed the cape last second and GFS was the only model to show us in the game, then it never really snowed, it seems like our lucked has flipped.. Plus this storm was the opposite, looked great then trended SE 72 hrs out..Great point on this one looking great three to five days out. I think feb 13th event was the only event that actually verified from three to five days out and even that one had SE jog at the last minute. Great discussion. One thing that does bother me with the NWS AFD's is their tendency to pass on forecast changes to the next shift when it's quite clear said change needed to be done at that moment. May explain part of the problem, otherwise they do great work. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Great point on this one looking great three to five days out. I think feb 13th event was the only event that actually verified from three to five days out and even that one had SE jog at the last minute. Great discussion. One thing that does bother me with the NWS AFD's is their tendency to pass on forecast changes to the next shift when it's quite clear said change needed to be done at that moment. May explain part of the problem, otherwise they do great work. Ya good point, with the shift changes, that's part of the problem, leaving it to the next shift? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthShoreWx Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Fair point. Maybe they should write a review on what went right/wrong every storm like a forecast wrap-up. So we can learn from our mistakes.. I'm sure they were looking at things we didn't even think about to come up with that forecast. There is the pre-storm discussion but maybe we need post storm discussions? I am not sure of the details of NWS verification scoring, but the process might include this. That doesn't mean they publish every bit of prose from a post mortem so that you can take potshots at it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This is wrong thread. Use march discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxbowler83 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 This is wrong thread. Use march discussion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 5, 2014 Share Posted March 5, 2014 Upton's winter storm review https://m.facebook.com/story.php?story_fbid=789642071065110&id=177148895647767&refid=8&_ft_=qid.5987341225432727707%3Amf_story_key.1629043547432097303&__tn__=%2As Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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