Storm chaser Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Well you were Def right on about not adding all the .1 crud to snow totals etc. Was never Gona add up. But Friday nite the dry Ukie was .65 nyc .85 Monmouth. 0z gfs was .5 nyc. .8 Monmouth. Sat 12z. Srefs were .5 to .75. And the euro. The nam at 12 sat was the first real .25 in nyc. Then it blew up from there. So I stand by 48 hours. But we are arguing over nada Hang around modeling long enough and if one data point changes the entire solution changes. The GFS from like Tues to Thurs was showing 12+ almost every run..Than the wheels starting falling off. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
friedmators Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bobby Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Bust of the century? Not even close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't understand the bust talk, models had shifted south of NYC 48 hours ago... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Animal Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't understand the bust talk, models had shifted south of NYC 48 hours ago... We went from 12 inches to nothing over 36 hours or so. Media was also talking about a huge storm for days on end. It is a bust Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterwarlock Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This was a bust only if you hug model runs from 4-5 days out...reality is the ggem began a trend thursday night and other models continued the supressed trend and cut back on qpf for the most part from run to run until we got where we are now...not a bust based on the trend Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PB GFI Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't understand the bust talk, models had shifted south of NYC 48 hours ago... Yesterdays Euro at 12z that`s .6 in QPF from Trenton East to Monmouth County . ( Warning Criteria ) . That's just 24 hours ago . Now N of 195 you`re lucky if 2 inches accumulate . I love the Euro but even great models with great physics break down . Yes once to Friday nite after 5 straight days the 10 -15 inches that was on the GFS and the GGEM came off the board , there were still models S of NYC printing out a Mod storm thru 12z yesterday . Is it a huge bust , prob not , a big deal , prob not . But clearly not the best work of handling the speed and depth of the split flow inside 72 hours . If you want to know the talk on the board Fri AM the rumblings were this was going to come so far N that P type was going to be an issue . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM shifted even further south. Under 0.10" for NYC and 0 north of 80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The storm is underperforming everywhere it seems...the radar looks great over Missouri, Illinois and southern Indiana but for the most part everyone is only 2-3 miles in light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This storm was supposed to be a long duration snowstorm with waves running along the front. Terrible bust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
killabud Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 not a huge bust imo,models have trended south pretty steadily for a couple days.... but i honestly expected (hoped)this to come back north,snow goggles caused by a genuinely great winter i suppose Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM obliterates West Virginia and points east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The storm is underperforming everywhere it seems...the radar looks great over Missouri, Illinois and southern Indiana but for the most part everyone is only 2-3 miles in light snow.Yeah I noticed warnings being dropped for places like KC where they were expecting 6-8 and got <2Radar does look good for anyone south of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM says we see light snow off and on through Monday afternoon south of 87. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think it's not even close to a bust because of this..... Yes GFS and euro still showed 4-8" of snow verbatim 36-48 hours out but you can't take a model verbatim when it's trending, so yes it was still showing snow but as early as Friday morning many people had a strong feeling this would trend to much less snow for us.. Many of us said watch this trend to flurries.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
96blizz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I think it's not even close to a bust because of this..... Yes GFS and euro still showed 4-8" of snow verbatim 36-48 hours out but you can't take a model verbatim when it's trending, so yes it was still showing snow but as early as Friday morning many people had a strong feeling this would trend to much less snow for us.. Many of us said watch this trend to flurries.. You win. And I mean that with all due respect and seriousness. Well done. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Rule of thumb-when the GFS shows nothing 4 days prior to an event in NYC-expect a hit Worked the other way this go around-big hit for days and then bails 3-4 days prior to the event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Rule of thumb-when the GFS shows nothing 4 days prior to an event in NYC-expect a hit Worked the other way this go around-big hit for days and then bails 3-4 days prior to the event. The euro was all over with this also. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Rule of thumb-when the GFS shows nothing 4 days prior to an event in NYC-expect a hit Worked the other way this go around-big hit for days and then bails 3-4 days prior to the event. Bailed 2 days before Just cut back a little 3 days.. 4 days ago it was showing 12+ most of the tri state. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly just caved, dropping the warnings from Mercer/Monmouth (now advisories for 2-4" and dropping the advisories north of there (1-2"). Pretty soon, I'll just be getting flurries. NWS-NYC did the same, dropping all advisories. Maybe 1-2" at best. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mt. Holly just caved, dropping the warnings from Mercer/Monmouth (now advisories for 2-4" and dropping the advisories north of there (1-2"). Pretty soon, I'll just be getting flurries. NWS-NYC did the same, dropping all advisories. Maybe 1-2" at best. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/phi/ quite frankly about freekin timeeeeeeeeeee! Upton stuck out and badly with the handeling ofstorm - with all due respect gentelemen , this should have happened 12 hours when it wa quite clear where this was heading. people r watching oscars now & will think WWA r still in effect for 6 inches! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 quite frankly about freekin timeeeeeeeeeee! Upton stuck out and badly with the handeling ofstorm - with all due respect gentelemen , this should have happened 12 hours when it wa quite clear where this was heading. people r watching oscars now & will think WWA r still in effect for 6 inches! Exactly I'm getting tired of answering will we have school tomorrow to this second.. I'm saying yes! And they are like but the weatherbug said 4-6" this morning. I say ya 4-6 flurries.. Guess where weatherbug gets there data.. upton!! This can all be avoided with the weather service updating there forecast exactly when we all know what the forecasts is. Millions of people have weatherbug on there phones! Irresponsible Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. But I don't think even you thought central nj would get next to nothing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BxEngine Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. Lol you did not say that stop Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The euro was all over with this also. it was bad. Thursday's run was so far north it was a rainstorm for most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lol wow this backs my point nicely. Is this real did governor Christie order a state of emergency for New Jersey for "all new jerseyans to please stay off the roads for heavy snow and hazardous travel tonight" even the governor still thinks it's going to snow because he is going off the nws forecast from this afternoon, and all state offices are closed Monday.. For flurries !! I'm so happy he did this it really shows something needs to be done with NWS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Duality Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hate to say I told you so but I have to say it. When the 12z GFS shifted way south on Friday in one run I knew this wasn't going to end well. People need to stop assuming that the models will always shift back north at the last minute. Didn't you post "winter cancel" several months back complete with a Robin Redbreast avatar? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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