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March 2-4 Snowstorm Potential Part 3


Sickman

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I don't know what to think at this point. I dont think they can just drop all snowfall totals completely, we also still have a few models with .25" south of 78 which could support the 2 to 4" (forgetting the look of radar)

 

i dont envy the pros leading up to events like this.  their forecasts have to stay somewhat cohesive while the modeling produces an ever moving target.

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With a coating to maybe and inch or two, NYC will probably have to wait to convert their

57.3" into 60". 

75.6    1995-96                63.2    1947-48               61.9    2010-11                60.4    1922-23             60.3    1872-73
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What model took snow out of the forecast Thrs ? Humor me.

The GGEM actually did well with this with the two part system, the first part pushing the second part south. I thought a lot could go wrong but I hedged toward the storm being more north and mixing cutting things back. I didn't think the PV would grow so strong that it would squash a storm south in early March of all times.

 

Judging by the models continuing to cut back up here, I think this is a 1-2" deal for most, maybe 3 or 4 inches over Monmouth. North of White Plains might just have scattered flurries. I was hoping this could get Central Park up to 60" but they'll very likely have to wait. Hopefully I can get past 55" (currently at 53.5").

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The GGEM actually did well with this with the two part system, the first part pushing the second part south. I thought a lot could go wrong but I hedged toward the storm being more north and mixing cutting things back. I didn't think the PV would grow so strong that it would squash a storm south in early March of all times.

 

Judging by the models continuing to cut back up here, I think this is a 1-2" deal for most, maybe 3 or 4 inches over Monmouth. North of White Plains might just have scattered flurries. I was hoping this could get Central Park up to 60" but they'll very likely have to wait. Hopefully I can get past 55" (currently at 53.5").

This stuff happens w numerical modeling nothing is set in stone. Regardless of the models physics or resolution. At 1 am sat the 0z run of the euro had .5 in nyc and .7 in Monmouth. My point was the better models started to compress this 36 to 48 hours out. Not 96.

^/$@ happens. And anyone n of 195 gets 3 I will b shocked.

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Friday 12z and heavy snow was forecast Monday so technically it's 72+hrs 3-4days

Well you were Def right on about not adding all the .1 crud to snow totals etc. Was never Gona add up. But Friday nite the dry Ukie was .65 nyc .85 Monmouth. 0z gfs was .5 nyc. .8 Monmouth. Sat 12z. Srefs were .5 to .75. And the euro. The nam at 12 sat was the first real .25 in nyc. Then it blew up from there.

So I stand by 48 hours. But we are arguing over nada

Hang around modeling long enough and if one data point changes the entire solution changes.

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