jm1220 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Amazing that in early March we get shafted by a storm that nails central VA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I will take one to two inches with no problem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I will take one to two inches with no problem. You may struggle to even see that much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sferic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You may struggle to even see that much Then I'll settle for a dusting as long as there is no virga. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Does anyone know why it takes upton so long to admit they were wrong again? 3 storms in a row now huge bust for no reason less than 24 hours out! They still have 2-4" for northern areas?! Just admit you are wrong tell the public the truth! I hate the lowering totals slowly ideas! Our job is to get the forecast right and inform the public what is going to happen! Not try to change our initial forecast as little as possible.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
doncat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just need my half inch to reach 60 for the year dammit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Remember when the models had the low on top of us lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 18z RAP shows the precip getting into CNJ by around 6pm...very sharp cutoff for the metro area with flurries...and then more of a light but does look to be steady light light snow Monday AM with second batch on future RAP radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Storm chaser Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 72 hours ago this was looking like a possible foot type of storm by far biggest letdown of winter as most storms have worked out for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just remember folks we have been very fortunate this winter 90% of the time so this time we take a hit - a Big one admitedly- but conisder it the price of success Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Unfortunately the weather community is going to take a beating tomorrow in the media and social media. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Unfortunately the weather community is going to take a beating tomorrow in the media and social media. And its because social media started hyping 6-18" of snow 3 days ago. They'll never learn Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And its because social media started hyping 6-18" of snow 3 days ago. They'll never learn Nothing wrong with all of us including the NWS looking at models three days ago and thinking we might get more snow. The problem I think is that the NWS is too slow to lower totals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 18z RAP shows the precip getting into CNJ by around 6pm...very sharp cutoff for the metro area with flurries...and then more of a light but does look to be steady light light snow Monday AM with second batch on future RAP radar Yes. HRRR and Hi-Res Nam is on board with this as well. Interestingly the situation has flipped. Yesterday around this time we were expecting a bigger hit from wave 1 and a whiff for wave 2, whereas now it appears the models are showing the opposite: a graze from wave 1 and a small hit from wave 2. This would also corroborate the currently poor radar representation in our area... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Allsnow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And its because social media started hyping 6-18" of snow 3 days ago. They'll never learn Agree! They are there own worse enemy! Going to unnecessarily give the nws a black-eye after a relative strong season….MT holly has been spot on all year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I said a few days ago, it does not make me comfortable being in the jackpot zone for a storm like this 3-4 days out. It is bound to trend north or south. However, look at it this way : if social media only called for 3-6 inches and it showed a possible 10-15" there'd be so many complaints for so many reasons such as New York schools staying open due to the conservative forecast, people being unaware, etc Sent from my iPhone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As I said a few days ago, it does not make me comfortable being in the jackpot zone for a storm like this 3-4 days out. It is bound to trend north or south Sent from my iPhone Normally I disagree with this, but in this case there was some merit to that. There was no way the models were going to show the same solution for 4 days straight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Normally I disagree with this, but in this case there was some merit to that. There was no way the models were going to show the same solution for 4 days straight. Your post quoting Craig Allen on the vendor thread is what I was trying to say there. But of course he said it all so much better. Weathermen have it tough. Unless the forecast is nearly nearly prefer, forecast will be bashed for being either too conservative or overdone Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Your post quoting Craig Allen on the vendor thread is what I was trying to say there. But of course he said it all so much better. Weathermen have it tough. Unless the forecast is nearly nearly prefer, forecast will be bashed for being either too conservative or overdone Sent from my iPhone The public is somewhat to blame because they don't read and most can't understand when a map is posted its what a particular model is showing not a forecast but they run with it. It seems like the various facebook weather sites don't seem to mind or clarify though except for DT and then he just starts calling people morons and idiots lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 updated map Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weatherfreeeeak Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 19z RAP at 15 hours brings the 20 DBZ line right up to NYC...only to collapse back down to 15 dbz at hour 16 lol http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=19&fhour=15¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nyblizz44 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 updated map Even now they r playing the down stepping game. Call it what it likely is : a trace to 2 ianches and be done with it but dont wait till the 10p package to do that because many are asleep by then bec of work in am!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Plfdwxdude.....that is true. In general, when the public sees a map from any "weather source", they take it as something that could be very close to the outcome. If someone sees 10 to 20 inches.....most people would think "wow we could get almost 2 feet of snow!" And not think....most places will get 10", and people would definitely not think "well that is just an interpretation of a model's snow output that shows around 8-12" but snow ratios are great". The reality of it is that we could get 5" or even 2" from that forecast, especially if it is made days in advance. I think it is safe to say that the weather models and technology used today simply cannot accurately predict the weather or amount of snow or even rain that will fall over a specific area (even within 100-200 miles of that area) past 2 days Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At a party and only had a few minutes to skim the thread - looks ugly - but then why is Upton not lowering snowfalls by a lot more if it's that dry? They still have 2-4" for NYC/NENJ, which implies Mt. Holly will likely still have at least 2-4", if not 3-6" for Central Jersey. Can't believe they would just "hold on" to try to save face - they must be seeing something, no? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 19z RAP at 15 hours brings the 20 DBZ line right up to NYC...only to collapse back down to 15 dbz at hour 16 lol http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=19&fhour=15¶meter=CREF&level=SURFACE&unit=none&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=n&output=image&view=large&archive=false Hour 17 looks similar to hour 15. Edited Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At a party and only had a few minutes to skim the thread - looks ugly - but then why is Upton not lowering snowfalls by a lot more if it's that dry? They still have 2-4" for NYC/NENJ, which implies Mt. Holly will likely still have at least 2-4", if not 3-6" for Central Jersey. Can't believe they would just "hold on" to try to save face - they must be seeing something, no? I don't know what to think at this point. I dont think they can just drop all snowfall totals completely, we also still have a few models with .25" south of 78 which could support the 2 to 4" (forgetting the look of radar) updated forecast for Middlesex....seems high even 4" for the northern parts and 6 south MIDDLESEX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...NEW BRUNSWICK330 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IN EFFECT UNTIL 10 AM EST MONDAY....TONIGHT...SNOW. RAIN THIS EVENING. SNOW ACCUMULATION OF 2 TO4 INCHES. LOWS AROUND 19. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OFPRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY...MOSTLY CLOUDY. SNOW...MAINLY IN THE MORNING. TOTAL SNOWACCUMULATION OF 4 TO 6 INCHES. HIGHS IN THE MID 20S. NORTH WINDS10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF SNOW 90 PERCENT. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WintersGrasp Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think it still looks like a 1-3" snowfall is possible. Snow will be coming in while it's dark, it'll be cold, and there might be JUST enough moisture to squeeze out a couple inches....probably not 2-4", but technically, the 2" could verify Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormlover74 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Advisories dropped for northern zones WESTERN PASSAIC-EASTERN PASSAIC-WESTERN BERGEN-EASTERN BERGEN-314 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014...WINTER WEATHER ADVISORY IS CANCELLED...THE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE IN NEW YORK HAS CANCELLED THE WINTERWEATHER ADVISORY.1 TO 3 INCHES OF SNOWFALL IS EXPECTED ACROSS THE AREA TONIGHT INTOEARLY MONDAY MORNING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NJCoast Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just saw MT Hollys updated map, still calling for 6-8 into lower Monmouth cty. Don't understand it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even now they r playing the down stepping game. Call it what it likely is : a trace to 2 ianches and be done with it but dont wait till the 10p package to do that because many are asleep by then bec of work in am!! Exactly my point! I've been saying this all week and especially since they put out their first forecast Friday of 8-10" when most of us knew that it was trending south. Then this morning when it was game over they put out a briefing for locally heavy snow 1/4 mile visibility tomorrow am and 6" of snow for NYC and Long Island?! I don't get it it's unacceptable , if all of us pretty much knew it was going to miss, why can't the weather service get it right! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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