RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 One thing most of us can be thankful for is that most of the light to moderate precip that is being progged is going to fall overnight and/or before 8 am, when the indirect sunlight will start doing its job. So, where 0.3" of QPF falls over 8 hours, 3-4" of snow will actually accumulate given temps below freezing. If we were getting only 1/4" of snow per hour during the day, much of it would simply melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Based off of guidance so far today. Probabilities of snow at KNYC - per me > 1" = 85% > 2" = 75% > 3" = 50% > 4" = 30% > 5" = 10% > 6" = 5% > 7" = < 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Actually the 3-6" looks good for Middlesex cty given the .3 to .4 QPF and perhaps higher ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Actually the 3-6" looks good for Middlesex cty given the .3 to .4 QPF and perhaps higher ratios. I would forecast 2-4" for that area and adjust according to radar trends and observations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Based off of guidance so far today. Probabilities of snow at KNYC - per me As I said previously said to you .thank you for the PBP but you have to include all areas in this forum; not just yours and NYC. Thanks for your effort > 1" = 85% > 2" = 75% > 3" = 50% > 4" = 30% > 5" = 10% > 6" = 5% > 7" = < 2% Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If we were getting one batch producing the .3 or .4 liquid equivalent i would think the accumulations would verifiy , I dont think will see 4 inches north of southern middlesex county with just light snow in the first batch and barely light snow in the second batch. No, most of the snow is falling at nighttime when it's dark so the sun angle won't be an issue for accumulation, and temps will be in the low to mid 20's so they certainly won't be an issue. I'm expecting about 3-5". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Their forecasts have been on point all season so no reason to discount them, don't see why we can't get 3" minimum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzardo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Folks... 25-30 miles makes for huge differences. All bets are off. Some weenieizm has to come out..LOL Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Metsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With that strong surface High off the SE coast, one would think that the surface low would move further NE as opposed to ENE. Naturally the low will move toward areas of relatively lower pressure, and the lowest pressures I see are NE not, east or ENE of the low pressure center... Agree, however looking at upper level wind flow at 300mb and 500mb(west/west-southwest) it's going to be hard to pull this any further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Folks... 25-30 miles makes for huge differences. All bets are off. Some weenieizm has to come out..LOL Too close for anything. If the storm comes slightly more north, NYC will see more snow. There is going to be a tight gradient from Staten Island to Manhattan. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IsentropicLift Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Based off of guidance so far today. Probabilities of snow at KNYC - per me As I said previously said to you .thank you for the PBP but you have to include all areas in this forum; not just yours and NYC. Thanks for your effort > 1" = 85% > 2" = 75% > 3" = 50% > 4" = 30% > 5" = 10% > 6" = 5% > 7" = < 2% I specifically game my opinion for Central Park, I don't have time to do a total breakdown for each site today. Sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
FreeRain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Based on that GFS map it looks like ocean/monmouth are in the .50 to .75 And .5 touches SI. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coltsfan1217 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What is the deal with the coastal storm later this week? It seems like a rain event, but what are the chances of it being cold enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No, most of the snow is falling at nighttime when it's dark so the sun angle won't be an issue for accumulation, and temps will be in the low to mid 20's so they certainly won't be an issue. I'm expecting about 3-5". Not if it's light and strung out.. Flurries and light snow never accumulate like that. You need steady snow.. It will melt on roads do to traffic and treatment Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JC-CT Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I really don't think the GFS has the resolution to determine differences between the boroughs with much accuracy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RutgersWx92 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Not if it's light and strung out.. Flurries and light snow never accumulate like that. You need steady snow.. It will melt on roads do to traffic and treatment I never said anything about the roads...just talking about non-paved surfaces. Light snow can certainly accumulate if temps are cold enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
JSantanaNYC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Its really depressing to see this now..and compare it to what we saw last week on the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# http://goes.gsfc.nasa.gov/ wv loop http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-24 good read on potential vorticity http://www.zamg.ac.at/docu/Manual/SatManu/main.htm?/docu/Manual/SatManu/Basic/Parameters/PV.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hazwoper Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nearly half of that precip at PHL on the GFS is mix. 850s above freezing until 03Z for them Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NYC - 2-4" CNJ - 3-6" SNJ - 6-8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
rossi Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Any info on new GEM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 why are people still using models? look at the radar and meso.. it tells the whole story.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 why are people still using models? look at the radar and meso.. it tells the whole story.. Radar is looking good....... Where in the money..... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Radar is looking good....... Where in the money..... Which radar are you using? We're way to far north of anything but light snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Doorman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/mesoanalysis/new/viewsector.php?sector=19# Precipitation Potential Placement Precipitation Potential Placement is a derived parameter combining precipitable water and low-level mean RH to help better place where rainfall will occur. Research has been published in the National Weather Association Digest in 2003 and stems from research and operational use of this product originally developed at NESDIS and Rod Scofield for satellite rainfall estimates dating back to 1981. Rainfall is usually maximized where the best low level convergence and instability overlay with the highest values for this parameter. The risk for heavy rainfall increases as values go up. Additionally, thresholds for precipitation also change based on temperatures. Onset of rainfall ranges from around 0.3 inches with temperatures below 30 to 1.0 inches above 80. Values above 1.0-1.4 inches with temperatures below 60 usually increase the risk for heavy rainfall while values above 1.6-2.0 inches increase the risk for heavy rainfall events with temperatures above 60. For more information, see: http://www.srh.noaa.gov/ffc/research/finalPP2.htm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Christopher Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Which radar are you using? We're way to far north of anything but light snow. Western PA, eastern Ohio, north Kentucky Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You almost get the feeling that mother nature is trolling all the snow weenies with storms like these. On a more serious note, this storm can be sneakily dangerous tomorrow morning even with only a few inches. Temperatures will be well below freezing, the snow is falling at night so it will accumulate everywhere and the morning commute could be quite dangerous. When people see that it's only a few inches, they sometimes drive like it's dry and sunny only to realize the roads are a lot more icy and slippery than they think. These misconceptions are what often leads to major accidents and fatalities. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BoulderWX Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Radar is looking good....... Where in the money..... LOL - not sure where you are but if its north of central jersey, we are certainly not in the money- go look at meso and the water transport.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RU848789 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS-NYC just updated their snow map. Really hard to tell if there are any changes - looks the same with 2-4" in most locations and 4-6" in southern portions of their area. For some reason I can't paste the image into the post - link below... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUMG11 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS-NYC just updated their snow map. Really hard to tell if there are any changes - looks the same with 2-4" in most locations and 4-6" in southern portions of their area. For some reason I can't paste the image into the post - link below... http://www.erh.noaa.gov/okx/StormTotalPrecip/StormTotalSnowFcst.png Can you post the image for the rest of NJ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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