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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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What's that little line/squall that just moved into Wayne/Oakland county from the east? Whatever it is, it just caused the heavens to open with some massive fatties. Legit +SN.

attachicon.gifWUNIDS_map.gif

So THIS is what it was. From DTX's AFD this morning, awesome:

SURFACE RIDGING AND LOW LEVEL COLD AIR ADVECTION IS AGGRESSIVELY

PUSHING INTO SOUTHEASTERN MICHIGAN THIS MORNING. IN FACT...KDTX AND

TDTW ARE SHOWING A FASCINATING FINELINE OF ENHANCED Z VALUES THAT

HAS PUSHED SOUTHWESTWARD OFF OF LAKE HURON. THIS IS THE LEAD EDGE OF

A BACKDOOR COLD PUSH OF HIGHER DENSITY AIR THAT IS WORKING

UNDERNEATH THE ONGOING MIDLEVEL FGEN SNOW EVENT. MODEL DATA SUPPORTS

THE NEAR SURFACE COLD PUSH WILL MAKE IT THROUGH LENAWEE AND MONROE

COUNTIES PRIOR TO 12Z. THIS HAS LED TO THE DECISION OF LOWERING

HIGHS A DEGREE OR TWO FOR THE RIVER LOCATIONS FOR THIS AFTERNOON.

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Measured 3.4" here... Looking at radar we could make a run at 4 before it's done.

 

I also measured 3.4" here at 7 AM and still snowing nicely.

 

I may not make my predicted 6.4, but it still looks nice out there. I would like to get within an inch of my prediction, but I don't think it will snow long enough unless we can get a little surprise.

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PRELIMINARY LOCAL STORM REPORT

NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE CHICAGO/ROMEOVILLE IL

748 AM CST SUN MAR 02 2014

..TIME... ...EVENT... ...CITY LOCATION... ...LAT.LON...

..DATE... ....MAG.... ..COUNTY LOCATION..ST.. ...SOURCE....

..REMARKS..

0740 AM SNOW PORTAGE 41.59N 87.18W

03/02/2014 M8.8 INCH PORTER IN TRAINED SPOTTER

STORM TOTAL SO FAR...WITH LAKE EFFECT SNOW ONGOING AND

ESTIMATED VISIBILITY OF ABOUT THREE QUARTERS OF A MIL

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Nice solid event here. Smack dab in the middle of my 3-5" call.

Only 1.1" at IND so far. Gonna need to bust out the super rally caps there...

Would appear a good chunk of central illinois into central Indiana busted hard. Got a report from my parents outside of Decatur, Il of less than 2". 36 hours ago, the winter storm watch was stating 8-10", with 4-6" listed last evening, and 3-5" this morning. The winter of model mayhem continues.

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Would appear a good chunk of central illinois into central Indiana busted hard. Got a report from my parents outside of Decatur, Il of less than 2". 36 hours ago, the winter storm watch was stating 8-10", with 4-6" listed last evening, and 3-5" this morning. The winter of model mayhem continues.

 

Yeah, appears so. Such a difficult forecast with almost no model consistency leading up to this event. I'm glad I do this for fun. :D

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Unsurprisingly, models struggled with the placement of the narrow bands of heavy snow.  Overall, for Iowa the nam and gem were too wet leading up to the Saturday event.  Some of their runs had 0.50" precip here, which was way overdone.  The euro, on the other hand, was pretty abysmal with its extreme dryness.

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Nice solid event here. Smack dab in the middle of my 3-5" call.

 

Only 1.1" at IND so far. Gonna need to bust out the super rally caps there... 

 

 

We're probably not entirely done yet though unclear how much we will get out of the next round.  Could be close to the northern edge and heaviest will pass south.

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We're probably not entirely done yet though unclear how much we will get out of the next round.  Could be close to the northern edge and heaviest will pass south.

 

I'm not sure we're going to see much more than mood flakes with the next round. Heck, I'm not sure about Indy...but looking at the way things are currently lining up, I think they'll tack on some additional. How much is the question.

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Unsurprisingly, models struggled with the placement of the narrow bands of heavy snow.  Overall, for Iowa the nam and gem were too wet leading up to the Saturday event.  Some of their runs had 0.50" precip here, which was way overdone.  The euro, on the other hand, was pretty abysmal with its extreme dryness.

 

Yeah they weren't too great.  Our 4.5" was actually one of the heavier amounts around this immediate area.  My original forecast was 2-4", then scaled back to 2-3, and then 1-2 yesterday afternoon.  Radar looked terrible, reports out of Iowa were weak sauce with vis above 2 miles in many locations.  Also, the normally too wet RAP showed pockets of <0.1" precip around the area.  Probably should have just stayed with the original 2-4".

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