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February 28-March 3rd Winter Storm Part 2


Chicago Storm

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Yeah the Euro sucked it up pretty bad.  RAP was pretty crappy as well for this immediate area.  Looks like the GFS did pretty decent overall outside of a few weird runs.

 

GFS was terrible for areas to your east. Way to dry/south around here.

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All the models sucked. Just a PITA system, that none of them could get a handle on. Multiple impulses, big honking PV, etc gave them fits.

 

EDIT: flakes have commenced here. But I'm still not sure how much we're going to see. :lol:

 

Model assessments on this bb are usually very iyby driven, which is probably not the best way to go about it. But it is what it is.

 

Good luck with the snow. 70" is in reach.

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Was looking at the LAF metar and saw something I didn't recall seeing before

KLAF 020354Z AUTO 01008KT 6SM BR OVC009 M06/M07 A3027 RMK AO2 FZRAE08 CIG
     007V012 SLP256 P0000 I1001 T10611072

I had to look up what I1001 meant.  Turns out it's ice accretion in the past hour (as noted by the first 1) to the nearest hundredth inch.  So LAF had 0.01" ice in the past hour.

Untreated surfaces are quite slick here. Union street bridge was a sheet of ice but had just been salted.

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Model assessments on this bb are usually very iyby driven, which is probably not the best way to go about it. But it is what it is.

 

Good luck with the snow. 70" is in reach.

 

Correct. I think I've seen it all for LAF in the past 4 days. Rain, all sleet, 14" of snow, T of snow, etc etc...from various models, at various times. Frustrating system for here...to get a handle on. Alas, maybe there are some models that nailed it for others BY.

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Model assessments on this bb are usually very iyby driven, which is probably not the best way to go about it. But it is what it is.

 

Good luck with the snow. 70" is in reach.

 

 

Yeah definitely.  For example for much of the winter I thought the Euro was doing great, but other areas weren't too happy with it. 

 

Got another few tenths, up to 4.2" with tonight's wave, 4.5" total event.  Back edge really slowed down allowing for some additional accums.  Should be about it though.  Back edge passing through DVN atm.

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Pretty much all sand, with a few isolated actual dendrites mixed in here. Can't say the radar to the west gives me warm fuzzies.

 

FWIW the radar presentation much of the day to the west of here was terrible, but really ramped up as evening approached.  Hopefully something similar happens down there for you guys.

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FWIW the radar presentation much of the day to the west of here was terrible, but really ramped up as evening approached.  Hopefully something similar happens down there for you guys.

 

Yeah, I hope the same prevails for here. RAP forecast too, because it's been consistently u-g-l-y for LAF. :lol:

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Yeah definitely.  For example for much of the winter I thought the Euro was doing great, but other areas weren't too happy with it. 

 

Got another few tenths, up to 4.2" with tonight's wave, 4.5" total event.  Back edge really slowed down allowing for some additional accums.  Should be about it though.  Back edge passing through DVN atm.

 

More examples:

 

http://www.americanwx.com/bb/index.php/topic/43031-march-2nd3rd-winter-storm-potential/?p=2841771

 

In contrast, SREFs have been God like here this winter. This storm included.

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