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Mountain West Discussion


Chinook

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  • 2 weeks later...

This is pretty much the exact time of year when Colorado has had some famous floods of the past such as the Big Thompson Flood and the Fort Collins Flood of 97. I saw heavy rain for just a few minutes. Most of Larimer and Weld Counties have rain right now.   Extensive street flooding reported in Windsor.

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My place got 0.48" as estimated by FTG radar (maybe 0.38" to 0.48" in reality) and it is still raining a little. There was a sharp cutoff of rain around I-25. East Fort Collins got 1-1.5". Radar estimates show 3.5" at downtown Windsor.

 

A few areas of Weld County and Wellington (Larimer County) had some slow storms yesterday- This was all north of Fort Collins and Greeley, we didn't get a drop.  Colorado Springs (Fort Carson) had up to 1.7" on Sunday--localized flash floods south of CO Springs that day.

 

I may have gotten 2.88+ in the last 20 days of July.

 

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Pueblo Radar

 

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  • 2 weeks later...

Been awful quiet around here for a while. Was a great summer with all the moisture around and cool weather. Only 45 days to snowmaking up at Loveland ski area. Love seeing the first dustings of snow on top of the mountains. It's not long now!

Any westerners dreaming of winter with any first guesses on what it'll bring? I'm thinking a below average snow year for the mountains west of the divide, near or above on the plains and in the foothills. Still haven't learned the local climate well enough to say that's any more than a hunch though.

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As far as climate goes, I don't really have a particular guess. A few big Denver snowstorms have occurred with moderate or strong El Nino winters, but not all of them. My best snowstorms here were in 2006 and 2009, which were El Nino;  moderate El Nino in 2006-07 and weak El Nino in 2009-10. (I think.)  I know northern Colorado snow is favored with La Nina, southern Colorado snow is favored with El Nino.

 

The CFSv2 keeps putting out winter seasonal forecasts that follow the standard moderate/strong El Nino precipitation forecast. El Nino looks to be weak, though. I don't even know if this CFSv2 forecast will be close.  You never know, the CFSv2 may change its mind in a few weeks. They run this model with new initial conditions every 10 days.

 

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After a relatively boring few days, we will most likely get several areas of heavy rain in NE Colorado. The shortwave kicking out from Arizona will provide the lift. Today's PW values in Colorado are very high, at 1.1-1.5" east of the Rockies. The 0-6km shear and CAPE also show some pretty decent values. My guess is that there will be a few severe storms between Denver and the northeast corner of Colorado. 300mb winds are now up to 55kt out of the SW, so this is a healthy sign that 0-6km shear will be large enough for some supercells.

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