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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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seasonal trend starts to lose its grasp come mid/late FEB it seems to me

look what happened in 3/09 and then the wrong direction in mid-late 2/10 to name a few recent years (early-mid, 77, mid 79 after PDI are a couple older ones that come to mind)

 

EDIT: years like 95/96 and 02/03 held them thru MAR, however

Could be .... shorter wavelengths and all that stuff ... Of course, it doesn't seem like we've reshuffled the deck many times this winter. 

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I'm with Ian. 4" or bust. It's fun to have an event with the potential to do more though.

 

I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow

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tonight's sounding out of Dulles is NOT really warm at all

 

Date:0000Z  2 MAR 14

Station: KLWX

WMO ident:  72403

Latitude:   38.97

Longitude: -77.48

Elevation:  88.00

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

LEV PRES  HGHT  TEMP  DEWP  RH  DD   WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E   W

     mb     m     C     C    %   C     C  deg knt   K     K     K     K    g/kg

-------------------------------------------------------------------------------

SFC 1011    88   5.4  -7.6  39 13.0   0.7 115   6 277.7 278.0 273.3 283.7  2.13

  1 1006   131   5.4  -9.6  33 15.0   0.2 120   6 278.1 278.4 273.1 283.3  1.83

  2 1000   182   5.0 -10.0  33 15.0  -0.1 125   7 278.1 278.5 273.0 283.2  1.78

  3  925   812   1.0 -13.0  34 14.0  -3.4 210  21 280.3 280.6 273.9 284.7  1.52

  4  915   899   1.2 -12.8  34 14.0  -3.2 219  22 281.4 281.7 274.5 286.0  1.56

  5  905   988   3.0 -12.0  32 15.0  -2.0 227  21 284.1 284.4 276.2 289.1  1.68

  6  861  1390   0.6 -11.4  40 12.0  -3.4 259  19 285.7 286.0 277.3 291.2  1.85

  7  850  1493   0.0  -9.0  51  9.0  -3.2 265  20 286.1 286.5 278.0 292.8  2.27

  8  843  1559  -0.3  -7.3  59  7.0  -2.9 258  19 286.5 287.0 278.7 294.1  2.62

  9  831  1674   0.0  -3.9  75  3.9  -1.6 270  27 288.0 288.6 280.4 298.0  3.44

 10  820  1781   1.4  -1.5  81  2.9   0.1 280  34 290.6 291.3 282.5 302.7  4.18

 11  784  2143   0.6  -2.9  77  3.5  -0.9 275  33 293.5 294.2 283.4 305.1  3.94

 12  776  2225   0.6  -4.4  69  5.0  -1.5 275  32 294.3 295.0 283.4 304.9  3.55

 13  700  3042  -6.7  -7.1  97  0.4  -6.8 275  31 295.1 295.6 283.2 304.6  3.20

 14  692  3132  -7.5  -7.8  98  0.3  -7.6 279  33 295.1 295.7 283.1 304.3  3.07

 15  681  3257  -6.5  -8.1  88  1.6  -7.1 285  36 297.6 298.2 284.1 306.8  3.05

 16  654  3573  -7.3 -10.8  76  3.5  -8.5 286  35 300.2 300.6 284.6 308.1  2.56

 17  634  3814  -9.1 -11.0  86  1.9  -9.8 286  35 300.8 301.3 284.9 308.8  2.60

 18  629  3876  -8.9 -11.4  82  2.5  -9.8 287  35 301.7 302.2 285.2 309.6  2.54

 19  623  3950  -8.3 -16.3  52  8.0 -10.8 287  35 303.2 303.6 284.8 308.7  1.72

 20  619  4000  -8.3 -19.3  41 11.0 -11.5 288  36 303.8 304.0 284.6 308.1  1.34

 21  602  4216  -9.9 -20.9  40 11.0 -12.9 290  37 304.4 304.6 284.7 308.3  1.20

 22  595  4306  -9.7 -30.7  16 21.0 -14.0 290  37 305.6 305.7 284.3 307.3  0.50

 23  584  4450  -9.3 -38.3   7 29.0 -14.3 287  35 307.7 307.8 284.8 308.6  0.24

 24  579  4517  -9.3 -33.3  12 24.0 -14.1 286  35 308.5 308.6 285.2 309.9  0.40

 25  565  4706 -10.7 -25.7  28 15.0 -14.3 287  39 309.0 309.2 285.9 311.8  0.83

 26  551  4899 -11.1 -27.1  25 16.0 -14.8 290  46 310.8 310.9 286.5 313.3  0.75

 27  546  4969 -11.1 -30.1  19 19.0 -15.2 289  47 311.6 311.7 286.6 313.6  0.57

 28  520  5342 -13.1 -37.1  11 24.0 -17.3 285  48 313.5 313.6 286.9 314.6  0.30

 29  500  5640 -15.9 -38.9  12 23.0 -19.5 285  44 313.7 313.7 286.9 314.6  0.26

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I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow

was that the event that we all seriously melted down on? we all credit you for bringing that one back.

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right, a change to being too far south from what has been the seasonal pattern of crushing 40N, or in this year's case, 39.6N

This is all speculation. Model errors have physical culprits, which will vary from storm to storm. There is no "trend" dictating exactly how things play out.

If there was, every storm would trend north.

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I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow

For the record I said 4" would be a disaster. ;) Screw climo. If the models show me getting a lot of snow in the short range anything less than a lot of snow sucks.

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This is all speculation. Model errors have physical culprits, which will vary from storm to storm. There is no "trend" dictating exactly how things play out.

If there was, every storm would trend north.

my point is that once you get late into the season, the bull's eye often shifts north, south, east, or west and in this system, it has obviously shifted south from the 40N crew

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