Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm talking changes to the pattern during the year, not necessarily north, south, east, or west this isnt really about trend or pattern...it's about the models being too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 seasonal trend starts to lose its grasp come mid/late FEB it seems to me look what happened in 3/09 and then the wrong direction in mid-late 2/10 to name a few recent years (early-mid, 77, mid 79 after PDI are a couple older ones that come to mind) EDIT: years like 95/96 and 02/03 held them thru MAR, however Could be .... shorter wavelengths and all that stuff ... Of course, it doesn't seem like we've reshuffled the deck many times this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 this isnt really about trend or pattern...it's about the models being too far south right, a change to being too far south from what has been the seasonal pattern of crushing 40N, or in this year's case, 39.6N Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 you mean I can't ask for a HECS and get it served to me on a plate? shoot. For March standards, this may very well be a HECS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nam is looking south Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm with Ian. 4" or bust. It's fun to have an event with the potential to do more though. I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 tonight's sounding out of Dulles is NOT really warm at all Date:0000Z 2 MAR 14 Station: KLWX WMO ident: 72403 Latitude: 38.97 Longitude: -77.48 Elevation: 88.00 ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- LEV PRES HGHT TEMP DEWP RH DD WETB DIR SPD THETA THE-V THE-W THE-E W mb m C C % C C deg knt K K K K g/kg ------------------------------------------------------------------------------- SFC 1011 88 5.4 -7.6 39 13.0 0.7 115 6 277.7 278.0 273.3 283.7 2.13 1 1006 131 5.4 -9.6 33 15.0 0.2 120 6 278.1 278.4 273.1 283.3 1.83 2 1000 182 5.0 -10.0 33 15.0 -0.1 125 7 278.1 278.5 273.0 283.2 1.78 3 925 812 1.0 -13.0 34 14.0 -3.4 210 21 280.3 280.6 273.9 284.7 1.52 4 915 899 1.2 -12.8 34 14.0 -3.2 219 22 281.4 281.7 274.5 286.0 1.56 5 905 988 3.0 -12.0 32 15.0 -2.0 227 21 284.1 284.4 276.2 289.1 1.68 6 861 1390 0.6 -11.4 40 12.0 -3.4 259 19 285.7 286.0 277.3 291.2 1.85 7 850 1493 0.0 -9.0 51 9.0 -3.2 265 20 286.1 286.5 278.0 292.8 2.27 8 843 1559 -0.3 -7.3 59 7.0 -2.9 258 19 286.5 287.0 278.7 294.1 2.62 9 831 1674 0.0 -3.9 75 3.9 -1.6 270 27 288.0 288.6 280.4 298.0 3.44 10 820 1781 1.4 -1.5 81 2.9 0.1 280 34 290.6 291.3 282.5 302.7 4.18 11 784 2143 0.6 -2.9 77 3.5 -0.9 275 33 293.5 294.2 283.4 305.1 3.94 12 776 2225 0.6 -4.4 69 5.0 -1.5 275 32 294.3 295.0 283.4 304.9 3.55 13 700 3042 -6.7 -7.1 97 0.4 -6.8 275 31 295.1 295.6 283.2 304.6 3.20 14 692 3132 -7.5 -7.8 98 0.3 -7.6 279 33 295.1 295.7 283.1 304.3 3.07 15 681 3257 -6.5 -8.1 88 1.6 -7.1 285 36 297.6 298.2 284.1 306.8 3.05 16 654 3573 -7.3 -10.8 76 3.5 -8.5 286 35 300.2 300.6 284.6 308.1 2.56 17 634 3814 -9.1 -11.0 86 1.9 -9.8 286 35 300.8 301.3 284.9 308.8 2.60 18 629 3876 -8.9 -11.4 82 2.5 -9.8 287 35 301.7 302.2 285.2 309.6 2.54 19 623 3950 -8.3 -16.3 52 8.0 -10.8 287 35 303.2 303.6 284.8 308.7 1.72 20 619 4000 -8.3 -19.3 41 11.0 -11.5 288 36 303.8 304.0 284.6 308.1 1.34 21 602 4216 -9.9 -20.9 40 11.0 -12.9 290 37 304.4 304.6 284.7 308.3 1.20 22 595 4306 -9.7 -30.7 16 21.0 -14.0 290 37 305.6 305.7 284.3 307.3 0.50 23 584 4450 -9.3 -38.3 7 29.0 -14.3 287 35 307.7 307.8 284.8 308.6 0.24 24 579 4517 -9.3 -33.3 12 24.0 -14.1 286 35 308.5 308.6 285.2 309.9 0.40 25 565 4706 -10.7 -25.7 28 15.0 -14.3 287 39 309.0 309.2 285.9 311.8 0.83 26 551 4899 -11.1 -27.1 25 16.0 -14.8 290 46 310.8 310.9 286.5 313.3 0.75 27 546 4969 -11.1 -30.1 19 19.0 -15.2 289 47 311.6 311.7 286.6 313.6 0.57 28 520 5342 -13.1 -37.1 11 24.0 -17.3 285 48 313.5 313.6 286.9 314.6 0.30 29 500 5640 -15.9 -38.9 12 23.0 -19.5 285 44 313.7 313.7 286.9 314.6 0.26 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 right, a change to being too far south from what has been the seasonal pattern of crushing 40N, or in this year's case, 39.6N you aren't getting it....it has nothing to do with synoptics...we are talking about model bias Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nam is looking south Sent from my iPad won't take long to crush or celebrate dreams tonight Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow was that the event that we all seriously melted down on? we all credit you for bringing that one back. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nam is looking south Sent from my iPad Thanks Anthony from Lehigh County! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 you aren't getting it....it has nothing to do with synoptics...we are talking about model bias no, you aren't getting it!...I;m obviously wasting my time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Anthony from Lehigh County! Figure I'd come watch y'all enjoy some snow for once, since my sub forum is always quiet Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nam is looking south Sent from my iPad It's at 21 hours..what are you talking about? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Our main area of precip is in a similar position but much wetter in the NAM at hour 25. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
StudentOfClimatology Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 right, a change to being too far south from what has been the seasonal pattern of crushing 40N, or in this year's case, 39.6N This is all speculation. Model errors have physical culprits, which will vary from storm to storm. There is no "trend" dictating exactly how things play out. If there was, every storm would trend north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Thanks Anthony from Lehigh County! lol exactly. the run just started and its looking ok to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 32 degree line crossing IAD/BWI area at 00z MON (7pm SUN) on 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anthonyweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Our main area of precip is in a similar position but much wetter in the NAM at hour 25. Wetter she is the better Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 first wave weaker w/precip on the NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I love snow and will enjoy what I get, but I am not going to be high-fiving people and breaking out the 1961 latour, if I get 4" when I models were giving me 1.25"+ QPF 24 hours pre-game....that said I am a lot more rational than I was on 1/20, when I was ready to go jonestown with anyone who would join me if I didnt get a decent snow For the record I said 4" would be a disaster. Screw climo. If the models show me getting a lot of snow in the short range anything less than a lot of snow sucks. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol..NAM has most of us below freezing at 10-11pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Fortune teller Anthony in the house. WTF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At 03z MON/10pm MON -- BWI/IAD below freezing and DCA 32 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The trajectory looks similar through 29 but the precip appears to be more expansive to the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Certainly is colder at the sfc and wetter to the SW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is all speculation. Model errors have physical culprits, which will vary from storm to storm. There is no "trend" dictating exactly how things play out. If there was, every storm would trend north. my point is that once you get late into the season, the bull's eye often shifts north, south, east, or west and in this system, it has obviously shifted south from the 40N crew Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DCA/BWI/IAD all in the upper 20s by midnight 850 0c line moves through DCA prob ~3 am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Certainly is colder at the sfc and wetter to the SW the precip over western TN at hour 30 looks impressive. if that heads along the boundary to us we are in great shape Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DCA/BWI/IAD all in the upper 20s by midnightis there a warm nose anywhere?back to lurking now bye Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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