snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'd go with the accum maps, rather than depth. D.C. snow depth bulls-eye with 12-14"! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=3&var=SNODI&hour=021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS suggests DCA is the jackpot Too bad Bob Ryan cancelled the storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 FYI, GFS is colder....probably snow by 2-3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks nice. Still a bit north of the NAM, which results in the N MD folks getting in on more action. A nice swatch of frozen across DC, Central MD, No Va, etc. It looks like most will get at least 4 and most everyone should be happy with that as a starting point given how this winter has gone for many. It has been a good season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 about 0.7" for DC after 9z So, NAM and GFS are now essentially identical in this regard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... Huh? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS FTMFW DT says waste of time looking at 00z euro...nam..gfs now. Only Rap and Hrrrr Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'd go with the accum maps, rather than depth. Theoretically, wouldn't snowfall always be greater than snow depth? odd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... might want to look again Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Huh? http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=ASNOWI&hour=021 It is drier on the precip map. Not huge but less. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... You have to be looking at the wrong run, it most definitely is not. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RGEM: 850s drop below 0 between 1a and 4a. I don't have sounding data so I'll conservatively assume we changeover around/just after 4a, which would be in line with other guidance right now. Precip is much lighter than other guidance and only has QPF totals 1+" down in SW VA. 0.7" total at DC with ~0.4" falling after 4a. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 02z looks really good too....it has been trending north. I don't think those people on the northern periphery should give up....not only because the south trend has been stymied or even reversed, but because people on the fringes can often get into secondary banding that sets up well north of the jackpotted swaths I've been pulling a Howard all day, and I don't see how this doesn't follow the temp contours and comes northeast. Philly is not to be denied. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... Not down here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks quite a bit drier than 18Z to me... similar, but it was good at 18z...it didnt need to redeem itself like the NAM....I think if you can get precip in there you will be snowing by 2am...even this run, gives you 5-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 You have to be looking at the wrong run, it most definitely is not. http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030218&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RGEM: 850s drop below 0 between 1a and 4a. I don't have sounding data so I'll conservatively assume we changeover around/just after 4a, which would be in line with other guidance right now. Precip is much lighter than other guidance and only has QPF totals 1+" down in SW VA. 0.7" total at DC with ~0.4" falling after 4a. Lets just not look at the RGEM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lets just not look at the RGEM Yeah, after spending all afternoon saying how awesome it is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 DT says waste of time looking at 00z euro...nam..gfs now. Only Rap and Hrrrr Well whatever DT says, the weather follows his orders so.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lets just not look at the RGEM The RGEM ditched us after leading the assault? Say it ain't so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030218&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 Yea i was looking at snowfall maps not liquid. Those maps were not worse, they were better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Matt, what do you think. Dundalk, SE Baltimore county. Been trying to gauge expectations appropriately with this one, and share that old school skew-t approach trying to not have an over-reliance on a certain model. Thinking a good over under here is 7"? Your thoughts. havent really taken a close look but 6-8" sounds right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The RGEM ditched us after leading the assault? Say it ain't so. Yes, it did. 00z RGEM had 5mm sleet and 12mm snow at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030218&time=PER&var=APCPI&hour=030 I have to agree with you... much drier... I had to take a double and triple look because people where questioning you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yea i was looking at snowfall maps not liquid. Those maps were not worse. Yeah, OK. I don't look at snow maps. The 00Z GFS is definitely drier. I guess it is colder too which compensates some in the snowfall department. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 might want to look again I am not looking at the snowfall clown maps, dude. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, OK. I don't look at snow maps. The 00Z GFS is definitely drier. I guess it is colder too which compensates some in the snowfall department. That is the only thing that makes sense because the snowfall maps are actually better at 0z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yeah, OK. I don't look at snow maps. The 00Z GFS is definitely drier. I guess it is colder too which compensates some in the snowfall department. But you also have to take into consideration that we lost some QPF from the first wave which was still on the 18z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Lets just not look at the RGEM RGEM has decided to keep the track the same, but cut QPF in half. Not at all matching up with what's going on to our west, so I am going to ignore the QPF part of that run and keep promoting the track only Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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