WEATHER53 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That is a ot of moisture back west and well north also. Mr Z, any chance this become a cutter???? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kmlwx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm liking the HRRR which is showing a bit better QPF fill in the northern half of the storm (DC to PA line), as opposed to RAP's weak fill and NAM's lack of much of any fill mid-morning tomorrow. Also, I just noted when I was looking at the Rapid Refresh site that the RAP2 supposedly went operational at NCEP earlier this week. Don't know if all the sites we reference are using the RAP2, or if some are still on the older RAP. They use whatever RAP data they are being fed. So any site that was using the old RAP is now using new RAP since it is being disseminated as such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
evaporativecooler Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 2z RAP is marginally slower than the nam at dropping in the upper level cold. Looks like a good sign for the northern fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mattie g Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Copious moisture is being pulled north from the Gulf and will be sent right over the arctic air in the AM. Snow rates will be impressive...maybe 2" per hour within a zone from Loudoun, Fairfax, DC, AA and south across Spotsy and S-MD. The reality of the moisture feed is really hitting home now. The combination of this and the unreal arctic push is going to make for an awesome morning here - one we might be talking about in the future even more than the Feb 12 storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow. Took a break for a while. Hres nam is nutz. I think i'm good for 8" but not a ton of wiggle. 6+ still a lock. Need to figure out when I sleep... Im gonna sleep from 11 till 3 so i don't miss anything. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That is a ot of moisture back west and well north also. Mr Z, any chance this become a cutter???? This made me laugh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I am wondering about ratios also. The 1/30/10 storm we got had close to 20:1 ratios (and no one was forecasting ratios that high!), so high ratios aren't impossible for this area. That combined with the super cold air we're seeing with this storm plus the SREF modeling 15:1-20:1 range for a good period during this storm has to be considered. For reference, here's the SREF modeling: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_snowfall_ratio__ That's a very broad area of 15:1+ ratios. Since the next cutoff is 20:1 and we don't hit that, hard to know the breakdown within that range. I think climo shouldn't be discounted, but this is not a typical storm, not a typical cold mass for a storm. Much colder column throughout than we are used to seeing. RAP sounding at 12z (7am) looks to be at or below 27F, while while by 15z (10am) it's down to 21F at around 700-800mb (colder for the rest). That to me says that 15:1 ratios are very much possible, could be slightly higher, say 16:1 through 18:1 possible in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That is a ot of moisture back west and well north also. Mr Z, any chance this become a cutter???? funny I have been an ass at times tonight...I know we are all the same...we are people who love snow....so I have to remind myself of that....There are people who hate snow...horrible, morally bankrupt heartless people....My anger should be redirected toward them,and not the people who share our passion..so I hope everyone gets raked....I really do think the northern MD people might be pleasantly surprised if they have reasonable expectations Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The reality of the moisture feed is really hitting home now. The combination of this and the unreal arctic push is going to make for an awesome morning here - one we might be talking about in the future even more than the Feb 12 storm. Mattie G is bullish. Take cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 you do have better climo in terms of ratios..and everything else for that matter......dont be surprised to see good returns set up by you.....HI res hinting at it tomorrow morning.....Models, even at high resolutions are going to have some smoothing signature...plus they arent perfect...I honestly think some people north of Baltimore are in for a surprise...not talking 8-12"...but 6-8" somwehere that might not be expecting it My over/under for northern md is 5. I want to see how cold we all get Tues. morning with fresh snow cover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 My over/under for northern md is 5. I want to see how cold we all get Tues. morning with fresh snow cover. I don't think that is unreasonable for you...That would be your 8th biggest storm of the winter...not bad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 funny I have been an ass at times tonight...I know we are all the same...we are people who love snow....so I have to remind myself of that....There are people who hate snow...horrible, morally bankrupt heartless people....My anger should be redirected toward them,and not the people who share our passion..so I hope everyone gets raked....I really do think the northern MD people might be pleasantly surprised if they have reasonable expectations I'm over all that stuff And I believe my expectations are low... 4". 6-8" may not be unachievable. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 you do have better climo in terms of ratios..and everything else for that matter......dont be surprised to see good returns set up by you.....HI res hinting at it tomorrow morning.....Models, even at high resolutions are going to have some smoothing signature...plus they arent perfect...I honestly think some people north of Baltimore are in for a surprise...not talking 8-12"...but 6-8" somwehere that might not be expecting it Thanks, Matt. Don't stress yourself out too much to not enjoy the snow. I expect deck pics from you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Matt, what do you think. Dundalk, SE Baltimore county. Been trying to gauge expectations appropriately with this one, and share that old school skew-t approach trying to not have an over-reliance on a certain model. Thinking a good over under here is 7"? Your thoughts. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't think that is unreasonable for you...That would be your 8th biggest storm of the winter...not bad If we're luck enough to get 6 inches that will make 6 storms that had 6 or more inches. Never thought that was possible in a non nino year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ratios aside I think there is potential for localized jackpots from unpredictable rates from convective snowfall. Models can't and won't express this. Sometimes crazy things happen with dynamic systems. Zero apples to apples but there was a band in CT last Feb that dropped snow at nearly unheard of rates. I'm not saying that is going to happen tomorrow but some folks who are lucky enough to line up under a training band for a time could really have some fun. Matt is right about up near the m/d. It could happen up there and anywhere south of there. The stripes will be narrow but they could be significant Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That's debatable, gets blended with climo too much after about 36 hrs yeah, well.. a blend is probably good at range. i'd be shocked if we end up near 0 in DC either way. upper single digits maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 02z RAP would suggest that DCA is snow at 08z (3am)... 750-850 are right around 0... good rates should mean its snow IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is a stone cold assassin....this is going to be good here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks nice. Still a bit north of the NAM, which results in the N MD folks getting in on more action. A nice swatch of frozen across DC, Central MD, No Va, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 it has been dicussed quite a bit, but I think that is a good call.....11:1 is climo for DC...I expect this will be more like 1/21...which was generally 13-14:1....expect that sleet and rimed snow at the beginning might cut down a bit so the 15:1 calls for the heght of the storm even if correct should be mitigated by the start....so if you expect 0.6" of liquid...I think 7-8 is a good call rather than 9"Yes indeed. I'm thinking perhaps closer to 12-1, only because of the riming during rhe beginning. It's tougher to get 15-1 this time of year, during the day at least, given the sun angle. Independent of the temp/uvv/moisture profiles in the dendritic growth zone aloft, you obviously still need a favorable surface layer. Now while it will be as optimal as can be for March 3, with surface temps crashing through the teens in broad daylight, the degree of solar insulation is still going to be what it always is for early March, or early October, even when completely cloudy and ripping rates. This says nothing of the ground temperature, which research has debunked the theory that a warm ground preceding an event has a limitation, which it doesn't so long as the rates and surface temps are good. For this reason, I am hesitant for expecting anything more than 12 to perhaps 13-1 during this event.I'm curious as to what kind of SLRs were experienced during the superstorm, at least during the all snow portion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS looks nice. Still a bit north of the NAM, which results in the N MD folks getting in on more action. A nice swatch of frozen across DC, Central MD, No Va, etc. I thought it started at 10:30 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Chanting G-F-S. Whatcha got for us zwyts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Snow maps for the GFS are 8-10 for DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS FTMFW Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS is a stone cold assassin....this is going to be good here about 0.7" for DC after 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 D.C. snow depth bulls-eye with 12-14"! http://www.instantweathermaps.com/GFS-php/showmap-conussfc.php?run=2014030300&time=3&var=SNODI&hour=021 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS suggests DCA is the jackpot Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 GFS FTMFW With a bottle of good Cab? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Yes indeed. I'm thinking perhaps closer to 12-1, only because of the riming during rhe beginning. It's tougher to get 15-1 this time of year, during the day at least, given the sun angle. Independent of the temp/uvv/moisture profiles in the dendritic growth zone aloft, you obviously still need a favorable surface layer. Now while it will be as optimal as can be for March 3, with surface temps crashing through the teens in broad daylight, the degree of solar insulation is still going to be what it always is for early March, or early October, even when completely cloudy and ripping rates. This says nothing of the ground temperature, which research has debunked the theory that a warm ground preceding an event has a limitation, which it doesn't so long as the rates and surface temps are good. Thank you all for the insight! I was also thinking with it being daytime we should expect lower ratios. Hoping this one surprises us all! ETA - Not less than 10:1 except maybe the first hour of the system. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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