BTRWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Tooper on his live webcast says chance for thundersleet or thundersnow tomorrow morning... mentions NAM showing a bit more snow than he had on his forecast Did they seriously just mention skew-T's? lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 1z RAP snow sounding at 9z. The warm nose at 825 and 800 persisted a bit longer this run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On that topic, what kind of amounts of ice sleet/freezing rain is the area looking at based on what seems to be faster moving cold air as opposed to what the models showed? JW if power outages are going to be less of a concern with the snow changeover seemingly starting sooner based on the air moving in faster. I'm a rookie at these things but that is what it seems to me. The transition will likely go from rain -- sleet -- snow without any freezing rain. The air mass/temp profiles don't support freezing rain. Enjoy the snow! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The disco of Matt's mood can move to the banter thread. Anyone with something to contribute is always welcome to post at all times. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like there's a chance. I would never have believed it a few days ago but this air mass is impressive. MOS is better than raw outputs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 NAM is 1.01" for DCA after 6z...0.4" falls between 6z and 12z.....so maybe 0.8"? thanks.. about what it looked like from 9z on from NCEP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 Take the nonsense to the banter thread..that goes for EVERYBODY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 MOS is better than raw outputs Yes, absolutely. But MOS does tend to overdo temps in cold air masses with fresh snow pack, though. Probably a blend of the two? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
olafminesaw Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I have not heard any concrete guesses on what ratios will be like. 12-15:1 for most of the storm seems likely to me, but I am not experienced with determining ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Heck of a lightning show down over the south with WV enhancement in upper diffluence. Enhanced cloud tops and dynamics headed right for us overnight. Mosaic shows some expansion to the heavier qpf well west of the Middle Atlantic Region and the NW expansion is encouraging that the 00z NAM shift north is on to something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 MOS is better than raw outputs That's debatable, gets blended with climo too much after about 36 hrs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I have not heard any concrete guesses on what ratios will be like. 12-15:1 for most of the storm seems likely to me, but I am not experienced with determining ratios. it has been dicussed quite a bit, but I think that is a good call.....11:1 is climo for DC...I expect this will be more like 1/21...which was generally 13-14:1....expect that sleet and rimed snow at the beginning might cut down a bit so the 15:1 calls for the heght of the storm even if correct should be mitigated by the start....so if you expect 0.6" of liquid...I think 7-8 is a good call rather than 9" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 1z RAP snow sounding at 9z. The warm nose at 825 and 800 persisted a bit longer this run. But still 8-10 inches of snow... right along the 00z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I have not heard any concrete guesses on what ratios will be like. 12-15:1 for most of the storm seems likely to me, but I am not experienced with determining ratios. If DC metro could average above 12:1 that would be great, seems to me from reading this forum that ratios are always tough to forecast until gametime. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 That's debatable, gets blended with climo too much after about 36 hrs not to mention how poorly regression-based predictions do at the tails of a distribution -- the next couple of days are definitely on the outer sigma levels Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Leesburg04...don't be blue Sent from my iPad using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Copious moisture is being pulled north from the Gulf and will be sent right over the arctic air in the AM. Snow rates will be impressive...maybe 2" per hour within a zone from Loudoun, Fairfax, DC, AA and south across Spotsy and S-MD. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 But still 8-10 inches of snow... right along the 00z NAM Maybe we're finally in that so-called NAM wheelhouse. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Heck of a lightning show down over the south with WV enhancement in upper diffluence. Enhanced cloud tops and dynamics headed right for us overnight. Mosaic shows some expansion to the heavier qpf well west of the Middle Atlantic Region and the NW expansion is encouraging that the 00z NAM shift north is on to something. The convection and dynamics have been pretty intense for hours and hours sw of here. I eyeballed some t/l reports over 75 miles north of the boundary and well in front of the h5 vort. I'm think chances are pretty high for a good number of tssn reports tomorrow around here. Favoring central va but not out of the question near dc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 01z RAP and 00z NAM in pretty good agreement re snow totals across the DC metro region Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Since everyone seems to be wondering about snow ratios and dendrite growth, here's SREF's take on it: http://www.spc.noaa.gov/exper/sref/sref.php?run=latest&id=SREF_prob_dend_50__ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On radar I'm noticing a area of rain from DC east. Seems to be a boundary there. I'm thinking that could be a hint at where the heaviest banding sets up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 90th percentile max potential still a possibility. These are weighted within a 32 member ensemble suite then tweaked locally. Still showing the possibility of 12+ in DC. http://www.erh.noaa.gov/lwx/winter/images/SnowAmt90Prcntl.png Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 This here weenie wants a sign, a signal that perhaps some good snow banding can waggle its way north. So I had to go to the Intellicast weenie winter radar to get the evidence. The black arrow was added to show everyone that snow is breaking out up into Pennsylvania. Maybe a good sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RAP showing some heavier banding with the early stuff. This is important because with heavy rates we can probably score snow out of a marginal sounding and get an earlier changeover. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 01z RAP and 00z NAM in pretty good agreement re snow totals across the DC metro region 02z looks really good too....it has been trending north. I don't think those people on the northern periphery should give up....not only because the south trend has been stymied or even reversed, but because people on the fringes can often get into secondary banding that sets up well north of the jackpotted swaths Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 01z RAP and 00z NAM in pretty good agreement re snow totals across the DC metro region I'm liking the HRRR which is showing a bit better QPF fill in the northern half of the storm (DC to PA line), as opposed to RAP's weak fill and NAM's lack of much of any fill mid-morning tomorrow. Also, I just noted when I was looking at the Rapid Refresh site that the RAP2 supposedly went operational at NCEP earlier this week. Don't know if all the sites we reference are using the RAP2, or if some are still on the older RAP. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 it has been dicussed quite a bit, but I think that is a good call.....11:1 is climo for DC...I expect this will be more like 1/21...which was generally 13-14:1....expect that sleet and rimed snow at the beginning might cut down a bit so the 15:1 calls for the heght of the storm even if correct should be mitigated by the start....so if you expect 0.6" of liquid...I think 7-8 is a good call rather than 9" I find that in many cases the ratios perform very well, but that is up here of course. Even in marginal events this applies. I don't know if it is elevation induced or what. I know someone close to the area that has a weather station and it seems in a lot of events we are close to 15:1. If 11:1 is climo for DC I guess I would be 12/13:1. I know Wes said earlier in this thread how it is easier for better ratios to occur with clippers and I definitely can confirm that. We have been easily 20:1 in several clippers since I moved up here 5 years ago. I think 15:1 is very doable tomorrow, if not for you then the close in burbs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I find that in many cases the ratios perform very well, but that is up here of course. Even in marginal events this applies. I don't know if it is elevation induced or what. I know someone close to the area that has a weather station and it seems in a lot of events we are close to 15:1. If 11:1 is climo for DC I guess I would be 12/13:1. I know Wes said earlier in this thread how it is easier for better ratios to occur with clippers and I definitely can confirm that. We have been easily 20:1 in several clippers since I moved up here 5 years ago. I think 15:1 is very doable tomorrow, if not for you then the close in burbs. you do have better climo in terms of ratios..and everything else for that matter......dont be surprised to see good returns set up by you.....HI res hinting at it tomorrow morning.....Models, even at high resolutions are going to have some smoothing signature...plus they arent perfect...I honestly think some people north of Baltimore are in for a surprise...not talking 8-12"...but 6-8" somwehere that might not be expecting it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tplbge Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 On radar I'm noticing a area of rain from DC east. Seems to be a boundary there. I'm thinking that could be a hint at where the heaviest banding sets up. I was thinking the same thing when I saw that. Anybody want to weigh in on this? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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