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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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WES, looks like we are gonna get in on some of the good amounts!! Question, will the warm Temps today slow the accumulation or will the Cold Temps and rain cool it off enough to allow for stick age from the start?

 

I don't think so because of rates and the very brief nature of the warmth after a very cold day

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I don't think so because of rates and the very brief nature of the warmth after a very cold day

On that topic, what kind of amounts of ice sleet/freezing rain is the area looking at based on what seems to be faster moving cold air as opposed to what the models showed? JW if power outages are going to be less of a concern with the snow changeover seemingly starting sooner based on the air moving in faster. I'm a rookie at these things but that is what it seems to me.

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Don't have the exact number, but total precip for DC on hi-res is in the 1.2-1.4 contour. The 1 inch contour includes all of PG county, all but the extreme northern portion of AA Co. The gradient is sick. By the time you're in mappy's area, its just a few tenths.

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sure is but that's been consistent on most models for the last 24 hrs or so. If I were in Westminster or Frederick proper I would be more excited ...appears that will be the cutoff for moderate accum. IMO. I think 3" up here is my call - 15 miles to my south could be 6-8 "near Westminster. Nasty cutoff for sure . I will take a stat Padder anytime.

Could be, but at least you are not THAT far NW of Westminster to get a rogue band that ends up dumping a couple extra on ya.

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Looks like there's a chance. I would never have believed it a few days ago but this air mass is impressive.

This is just sick for march. This is likely to be best storm of year. Last storm was just such a wet snow that it wasn't as enjoyable. This storm will be way better with crashing temps in teens, dry snow, and frigid single digits at worst afterwards. What a winter!

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Wow. Took a break for a while. Hres nam is nutz. I think i'm good for 8" but not a ton of wiggle. 6+ still a lock.

Need to figure out when I sleep...

 

alarm set for 4 am to assess the situation is a good call

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Ratios depend on having a cold surface temp (below freezing) but is more dependent on the temperatures at which snow crystals are forming (you'd like it to be in the minus 12 to minus 16C range and you also don't want a ton of cloud water so you don't want there to be a deep layer with temps in the freezing to minus 4C range.  YOu also want to look at the temps are which the strongest lifting is located....again somewhere around minus 15 is good for high ratios.   Also, usually the highest ratios aree with storms that are clipper type storms since they don't have a lot of cloud water.  Really big storm around our area rarely have ratios in the 20-1 range.  More often, you see 12-1 or 15-1, the latter if the snow is dry.  Anyway, that's a quick rather simplified primer.

I knew you knew. I need to go find a paper that was done a while back. I see a SREF showing 15:1 by 12z. Thanks for the information!

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Please....someone new post...I am being sincere.....any of you who see this post, and aren't 14 and post at Accuweather and can share something other than something that ends in a question mark...post....I like reading what intelligent people have to say even if it isn't some brilliant insight...Those of you browsing who are smart, please post now...

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