waldo5252 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WES, looks like we are gonna get in on some of the good amounts!! Question, will the warm Temps today slow the accumulation or will the Cold Temps and rain cool it off enough to allow for stick age from the start? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Good stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Tomorrow morning 4k NAM sim radar .nam sim.png Just a question, the blue is snow, but the yellow is rain? I mean, it should be snow, but I'm a rookie... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 WES, looks like we are gonna get in on some of the good amounts!! Question, will the warm Temps today slow the accumulation or will the Cold Temps and rain cool it off enough to allow for stick age from the start? I don't think so because of rates and the very brief nature of the warmth after a very cold day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just a question, the blue is snow, but the yellow is rain? I mean, it should be snow, but I'm a rookie... Its snow north of the blue... just lighter in intensity Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Just a question, the blue is snow, but the yellow is rain? I mean, it should be snow, but I'm a rookie... we know Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM has us in the teens tomorrow morning through the day, dropping into the single digits tomorrow night. SICK. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waldo5252 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I don't think so because of rates and the very brief nature of the warmth after a very cold day On that topic, what kind of amounts of ice sleet/freezing rain is the area looking at based on what seems to be faster moving cold air as opposed to what the models showed? JW if power outages are going to be less of a concern with the snow changeover seemingly starting sooner based on the air moving in faster. I'm a rookie at these things but that is what it seems to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM has us in the teens tomorrow morning through the day, dropping into the single digits tomorrow night. SICK. 00z HRRR has us in upper teens by 8am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Don't have the exact number, but total precip for DC on hi-res is in the 1.2-1.4 contour. The 1 inch contour includes all of PG county, all but the extreme northern portion of AA Co. The gradient is sick. By the time you're in mappy's area, its just a few tenths. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Anyone have text output on liquid post 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k NAM has us in the teens tomorrow morning through the day, dropping into the single digits tomorrow night. SICK. Any shot at below zero temps anywhere? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the best is yet to come... http://weather.cod.edu/satrad/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Anyone have text output on liquid post 9z? on Hi res?....looks very close to 0.8" for DC...0.7" on NAM....but that is an eyeball Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solo2 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Any shot at below zero temps anywhere? Looks like there's a chance. I would never have believed it a few days ago but this air mass is impressive. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
luvmypet1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is baltimore still in a 6-10 range or is the tight gradient knocking down bmore accumulation too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow. Took a break for a while. Hres nam is nutz. I think i'm good for 8" but not a ton of wiggle. 6+ still a lock. Need to figure out when I sleep... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 sure is but that's been consistent on most models for the last 24 hrs or so. If I were in Westminster or Frederick proper I would be more excited ...appears that will be the cutoff for moderate accum. IMO. I think 3" up here is my call - 15 miles to my south could be 6-8 "near Westminster. Nasty cutoff for sure . I will take a stat Padder anytime. Could be, but at least you are not THAT far NW of Westminster to get a rogue band that ends up dumping a couple extra on ya. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Is baltimore still in a 6-10 range or is the tight gradient knocking down bmore accumulation too. Baltimore will probably be ok... 4-8 is a better call than 6-10. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looks like there's a chance. I would never have believed it a few days ago but this air mass is impressive. This is just sick for march. This is likely to be best storm of year. Last storm was just such a wet snow that it wasn't as enjoyable. This storm will be way better with crashing temps in teens, dry snow, and frigid single digits at worst afterwards. What a winter! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the best is yet to come... http://climate.cod.edu/flanis/satellite/reg/index.php?type=usa-wv-48 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Anyone have text output on liquid post 9z? NAM is 1.01" for DCA after 6z...0.4" falls between 6z and 12z.....so maybe 0.8"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Tooper on his live webcast says chance for thundersleet or thundersnow tomorrow morning... mentions NAM showing a bit more snow than he had on his forecast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Curlyq Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Impressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm feeling better by the minute....and more sorry for Ji Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow. Took a break for a while. Hres nam is nutz. I think i'm good for 8" but not a ton of wiggle. 6+ still a lock. Need to figure out when I sleep... alarm set for 4 am to assess the situation is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 00z HRRR has DC in 6-7 inches of snow... still snowing for a few more hours after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
midatlanticweather Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ratios depend on having a cold surface temp (below freezing) but is more dependent on the temperatures at which snow crystals are forming (you'd like it to be in the minus 12 to minus 16C range and you also don't want a ton of cloud water so you don't want there to be a deep layer with temps in the freezing to minus 4C range. YOu also want to look at the temps are which the strongest lifting is located....again somewhere around minus 15 is good for high ratios. Also, usually the highest ratios aree with storms that are clipper type storms since they don't have a lot of cloud water. Really big storm around our area rarely have ratios in the 20-1 range. More often, you see 12-1 or 15-1, the latter if the snow is dry. Anyway, that's a quick rather simplified primer. I knew you knew. I need to go find a paper that was done a while back. I see a SREF showing 15:1 by 12z. Thanks for the information! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Please....someone new post...I am being sincere.....any of you who see this post, and aren't 14 and post at Accuweather and can share something other than something that ends in a question mark...post....I like reading what intelligent people have to say even if it isn't some brilliant insight...Those of you browsing who are smart, please post now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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