yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 It's funny and sad how I am part of a dying breed who actually forecasts using soundings, QPF, estimated ratios and other intangibles... Well some people just look at the map and think that is what they will get... some like us actually look into the model and check the how, the why, the how much, and so on Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 the point is that you really need to look at models from both a "bottom up" and "top down" approach -- i wasn't advocating for one over another but you shouldn't think that looking at 700 uvv's is going to give you the full picture -- for example, thunder can't really be discerned from only vertical velocity (nor sim radar), obviously you need uvv to get thunder but you also have to consider the microphysics needed for lightning initiation and the necessary instability i understand the need to try to find simple tools to attempt to try to improve your forecasting skills -- I think we're just talking two different languages here Fair enough. I am a weenie/hobbyist but I am an engineer so I do like the physics aspect. And I never said looking at uvvs gave a full picture of anything, but it is one tool I have found useful along with looking at RH, rather than solely focusing on the things like modeled qpf. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 OMG...HI Res Radar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Come on you have to have at least a few minute head start, when the run was only at 12 hours you knew it was a great run. how could i have a headstart? the key is tabs with the past three runs at the same forecast time -- easy to pick up on trends Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Topper gives this storm a 6.2 out of 10 on the bread-o-meter... pretty decent Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 OMG...HI Res Radar Too much alcohol to pull up. You have image? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 OMG...HI Res Radar Woah... thats sick Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Pityflakes Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I always liked the NAM. Seriously though, this is all now casting IMO. Sleet tends to hang on longer in my area, at least with any easterly wind component, so I expect some mixing here even past dawn. Rates will be great when it's all snow, though, so think 6" is a good call ATM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ers-wxman1 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Intense band on this run, broader as well but geez that gradient is tight to the north. NOVA to DC east to the Upper Eastern Shore and S-MD gets hammered! That's ground zero on the hrr as well. Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MN Transplant Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 OMG...HI Res Radar Ewall is slow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 how could i have a headstart? the key is tabs with the past three runs at the same forecast time -- easy to pick up on trends Ah got it. I thought you worked for the NWS and got it a few minutes early. I have to try the 4 tabs but with my ADD it may be tough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 don't tell anyone with maps...a warm nose means nothing to a map I used to refer to the snow maps all the time but learned its best to use soundings, qpf rates, ratios, etc to make a snow forecast based off the model run. I don't even bother looking at the snow maps anymore, especially in setups like these. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Tomorrow morning 4k NAM sim radar . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hi Res is an absolute pummeling of DC...hopefully Ryan Maue runs another 1.33k Nest and tweets it... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ewall is slow Large area of 35dbz+ in W VA and E WV at 13z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 The expansion of the precip to the north is actually tighter on the NAM from 18Z. The cutoff actually got worse if you can believe it. According to the 00Z NAM mere miles will separate a big snowstorm from not much of anything. it's gonna be a sandwich job by the time it gets here. tight gradient. just look at the radar. hard to see where it's making a beeline towards. to my eyes, i still think fredericksburg is the spot for this, which i guess is what the models are showing. i'm still not completely comfortable with things, and i'm a few miles north of dc. we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ah got it. I thought you worked for the NWS and got it a few minutes early. I have to try the 4 tabs but with my ADD it may be tough. nope -- i'm no more a forecaster than most here -- i'm on the research side of things Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Ewall is slow it's disgusting...looks like maybe 0.8" for me and you after 9z? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowpocalypse Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Can't believe that I will be left out in the cold just 10 miles north of the M/D line. I feel you. I'm distraught. Even with this alleged north tick in the nam I'm still only looking at 2-4 inches. Tragic. I wanted this bad. I guess Virginia is for lovers.......snow lovers that is. I was also hoping to be off work tomorrow, so much for that. Boooo Cecil County ........ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Hi Res is an absolute pummeling of DC...hopefully Ryan Maue runs another 1.33k Nest and tweets it... here's the data if he doesn't -- not sure when this updates for the 0z runs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 it's disgusting...looks like maybe 0.8" for me and you after 9z? Prob... thought it was lil more... but 0.8" sounds about right Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Large area of 35dbz+ in W VA and E WV at 13z brace yourself Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I used to refer to the snow maps all the time but learned its best to use soundings, qpf rates, ratios, etc to make a snow forecast based off the model run. I don't even bother looking at the snow maps anymore, especially in setups like these. Well some people just look at the map and think that is what they will get... some like us actually look into the model and check the how, the why, the how much, and so on I guess the map is conjured up using tea leaves? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MillvilleWx Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 OMG...HI Res Radar Oh my. That's ballin'. Looks like 8am-12pm for rakage Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 4k is only about .50" more for me than 18z....whats 6" of snow between friends? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 here's the data if he doesn't -- not sure when this updates for the 0z runs http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ sweet thanks... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 brace yourself I saw it... I was trying to get MN to reply with a It looks close to a foot when its said and done I think Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I saw that Noaa runs 2k soundings...which were helpful Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 it's disgusting...looks like maybe 0.8" for me and you after 9z? Yup, WxBell maps show 0.8" after 9z. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Casualbrain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Looking good! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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