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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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This system is likely to buck the seasonal trend because the arctic airmass is a bit different than the others and

the vorticity at 500 mb isn't a intense as some of the others.

Ok. I hear you. Thanks. South trend better quit or JI gets snow in FL. ;)

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Sounds about right. Does look like the transition from rain/zr/sleet is pretty quick. Before 1am. So could get a nice coating of sleet before snow.

A quick look at the 18Z GFS is slightly encouraging.

The 500-1000 mb thickness chart, the 850 mb temperatures and the 700mb-850 mb thickness charts seem to get a frozen column through DC by about 9Z.  The fly in the ointment is the 700mb-850mb thickness chart that seems to take forever into Monday daytime to become entirely below freezing.

 

No soundings expert here but to me this suggests some sort of mixture of snow and sleet in many areas.

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The 9z sounding on twister looks marginal, 12z looks all snow for sure.

A quick look at the 18Z GFS is slightly encouraging.

The 500-1000 mb thickness chart, the 850 mb temperatures and the 700mb-850 mb thickness charts seem to get a frozen column through DC by about 9Z.  The fly in the ointment is the 700mb-850mb thickness chart that seems to take forever into Monday daytime to become entirely below freezing.

 

No soundings expert here but to me this suggests some sort of mixture of snow and sleet in many areas.

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The 18z GFS run looks similar to the 00z run last night.  I think it feels worse because the 06z and 12z were wetter and more north.  Given how similar 00z was to 18z, I'm not sure how much of a south trend there really is.

 

18z and 00z:

 

oajLrW9.gif

65AtalZ.gif

 

06z and 12z:

 

45mnUwg.gif

 

oM2DUBX.gif

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Yeah, I was wondering about that with the GFS. It's solution was a good bit different than the other models for the shape of the system, so it makes me want to discount it, but at this range, you can't discount any of the major models. Could happen. I'm going with the NAM/ECMWF/earlier GFS solutions for now though.

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Wonder if we can break some March snow records. I think the 8.4 inches on 3/9/ 99  is the DCA one day March record and the largest March snowfall since 1941. I remember in 93 Bob Ryan saying the superstorm had a chance to break the one day Wash  DC record of 11.5.

 

The link is a CWG article from last year on record March snowfalls.

 

 http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html

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I know this is old news now and I'm not sure if I am allowed to post this so delete if necessary. This is the Eurowx.com snowfall map. I like this map more than WXbell's because it's easier to read.  It also seems more overdone than Wxbell's.

 

 

post-9864-0-76967300-1393714841.txt

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The February 3 event was similar and went well north of the euro 24hrs out. I thought I'd be missing out being in Quakertown, where they ended up getting a lot more than Frederick. Turned out the surface front got over the mountains way slower than expected meaning more moisture was available further north. Hopefully this means northern burbs will do fine.

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I know this is old news now and I'm not sure if I am allowed to post this so delete if necessary. This is the Eurowx.com snowfall map. I like this map more than WXbell's because it's easier to read.  It also seems more overdone than Wxbell's.

 

I'm confused, someone makes maps that are more overdone than WxBell's? 

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Yeah. Everyone here is gonna get a good snowstorm. 5 or 6 inches, 10-12, its all good. As Mr Chill said earlier, just let the chips fall at this point. I will also add, have a drink and relax. This cab rather nice, and disappearing quickly.

Channel 7 in DC just projected via their in-house model 4 inches after a bunch of sleet.

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00Z will edge north some.

That would act like a Valium for some in this forum. All kidding aside, even the mighty Euro has been sliding south over the last 24-48 hours. It would be a little reassuring to see the trend stop as we are now within 24-30 hours of the start of the storm.

NAM should theoretically be of some value at 0z tonight.

MDstorm

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