Scraff Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 This system is likely to buck the seasonal trend because the arctic airmass is a bit different than the others and the vorticity at 500 mb isn't a intense as some of the others. Ok. I hear you. Thanks. South trend better quit or JI gets snow in FL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Sounds about right. Does look like the transition from rain/zr/sleet is pretty quick. Before 1am. So could get a nice coating of sleet before snow. A quick look at the 18Z GFS is slightly encouraging. The 500-1000 mb thickness chart, the 850 mb temperatures and the 700mb-850 mb thickness charts seem to get a frozen column through DC by about 9Z. The fly in the ointment is the 700mb-850mb thickness chart that seems to take forever into Monday daytime to become entirely below freezing. No soundings expert here but to me this suggests some sort of mixture of snow and sleet in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RevWarReenactor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That cutoff on the northern side of the NAM is crazy! Definitely has me worried... LWX has most of the area in the 8-10" zone, for what it's worth. I think Harford and Cecil are in a good spot for this, but any trend south from here, and there could be problems for us. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 9z sounding on twister looks marginal, 12z looks all snow for sure. A quick look at the 18Z GFS is slightly encouraging. The 500-1000 mb thickness chart, the 850 mb temperatures and the 700mb-850 mb thickness charts seem to get a frozen column through DC by about 9Z. The fly in the ointment is the 700mb-850mb thickness chart that seems to take forever into Monday daytime to become entirely below freezing. No soundings expert here but to me this suggests some sort of mixture of snow and sleet in many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ok. I hear you. Thanks. South trend better quit or JI gets snow in FL. The NAM and GFS seem to show the same South trend. No reason to think it should get more south in future runs but the damage is kind of done for those hoping the most favored zone would be North Central Maryland. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 9z sounding on twister looks marginal, 12z looks all snow for sure. Until that 700-850 thickness chart is all frozen, the column is a gluteus clencher for pure snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Until that 700-850 thickness chart is all frozen, the column is a gluteus clencher for pure snow. hahaha i like your description there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cae Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 18z GFS run looks similar to the 00z run last night. I think it feels worse because the 06z and 12z were wetter and more north. Given how similar 00z was to 18z, I'm not sure how much of a south trend there really is. 18z and 00z: 06z and 12z: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 According to the 18z NAM, anyone north of Baltimore should start to worry lol... Inner weenie post below- Doesn't the NAM always have too sharp of a cutoff on the northern side? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah, I was wondering about that with the GFS. It's solution was a good bit different than the other models for the shape of the system, so it makes me want to discount it, but at this range, you can't discount any of the major models. Could happen. I'm going with the NAM/ECMWF/earlier GFS solutions for now though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harv_poor Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Wonder if we can break some March snow records. I think the 8.4 inches on 3/9/ 99 is the DCA one day March record and the largest March snowfall since 1941. I remember in 93 Bob Ryan saying the superstorm had a chance to break the one day Wash DC record of 11.5. The link is a CWG article from last year on record March snowfalls. http://www.washingtonpost.com/blogs/capital-weather-gang/post/march-snow-in-washington-dc-benchmarks-for-snowquester-potentially-similar-seasons/2013/03/04/e72f52b6-848b-11e2-9d71-f0feafdd1394_blog.html Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lsukev Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am liking the HPC's probabilities: http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/pwpf/wwd_accum_probs.php?fpd=24&ptype=snow&amt=1&day=2&ftype=probabilities ETA: Probably based off the 12z data, but the HPC's probabilities have DC in the bullseye. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 For those obsessing over the south trend, there is always the "Pacific shortwave wont be properly sampled till 0z" card to play. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00Z will edge north some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know this is old news now and I'm not sure if I am allowed to post this so delete if necessary. This is the Eurowx.com snowfall map. I like this map more than WXbell's because it's easier to read. It also seems more overdone than Wxbell's. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00Z will edge north some. I think it will shift north a tick, but not enough to make the NY bunch happy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ensembles are pretty useless at this range but while the precip amounts north of the M/D were cut back on the GEFS, the 1" line hardly budged except it expanded a lot to include our friends to the south and on the eastern shore. A Mid-atlantic special on tap on Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The February 3 event was similar and went well north of the euro 24hrs out. I thought I'd be missing out being in Quakertown, where they ended up getting a lot more than Frederick. Turned out the surface front got over the mountains way slower than expected meaning more moisture was available further north. Hopefully this means northern burbs will do fine. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I know this is old news now and I'm not sure if I am allowed to post this so delete if necessary. This is the Eurowx.com snowfall map. I like this map more than WXbell's because it's easier to read. It also seems more overdone than Wxbell's. I'm confused, someone makes maps that are more overdone than WxBell's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
arlwx Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yeah. Everyone here is gonna get a good snowstorm. 5 or 6 inches, 10-12, its all good. As Mr Chill said earlier, just let the chips fall at this point. I will also add, have a drink and relax. This cab rather nice, and disappearing quickly. Channel 7 in DC just projected via their in-house model 4 inches after a bunch of sleet. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LWX cut back totals in northern MD Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
North Balti Zen Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LWX cut back totals in northern MD Are you talking about that automatic dealie product of theirs based on the most recent model run ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Are you talking about that automatic dealie product of theirs based on the most recent model run ? Whatever is their snowfall map, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 00Z will edge north some. That would act like a Valium for some in this forum. All kidding aside, even the mighty Euro has been sliding south over the last 24-48 hours. It would be a little reassuring to see the trend stop as we are now within 24-30 hours of the start of the storm. NAM should theoretically be of some value at 0z tonight. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Whatever is their snowfall map, yeah. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the 0z ticks south I'm going to be sad Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 If the 0z ticks south I'm going to be sad 1-10 10 being the most sad...what level? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM: Snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 RGEM: Snow Remember thats only to 48 hours, more falls after that... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Remember thats only to 48 hours, more falls after that... True, was going to say the precip is still going pretty decently for Baltimore and crew. A uniform 15-20mm over to the eastern shore and SNJ. Not bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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