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March 2-3 Disco, Part III


stormtracker

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HRRR says PhineasC was right about a north tick.

 

you aren't going to get flushed with this one, but you should be ok...you know the drill every storm and how you end up ok...you may wrap up a little earlier than other...say 11-12 or so, and not get into the heaviest bands, but no reason you cant do 4-6"

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not just initialized but several hours in...21z RAP had 0z temps nailed

 

i figured thats what you were going after -- it's always good in these sharp boundaries that things don't get too out of hand early in the forecast -- makes it hard to believe anything after it

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not just initialized but several hours in...21z RAP had 0z temps nailed

 

I'm prob weenieing out but I can't stop thinking about how heavy the rates can be with this for a couple hours. Very dynamic system with all kinds of convective stuff feeding into it. HRRR really likes 2-3" OTG by 7am. I could see some of us get 2"+/hr rates for a couple hours. Prob sometime between 6am-10am. 

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I'm prob weenieing out but I can't stop thinking about how heavy the rates can be with this for a couple hours. Very dynamic system with all kinds of convective stuff feeding into it. HRRR really likes 2-3" OTG by 7am. I could see some of us get 2"+/hr rates for a couple hours. Prob sometime between 6am-10am. 

 

i'm still excited for worst-case -- steady snow and temps falling through the teens during the day

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i'm still excited for worst-case -- steady snow and temps falling through the teens during the day

 

Yea, this is no doubt going down as a very special march storm. No way around that. It will be a while before we duplicate it. We might duplicate the 2/12-13 hecs in 10 days though

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I'm feeling about 10x more optimistic than earlier.  I like radar and the HRRRRRRRRRRR.    Temps are crashing a bit earlier, but unlike Mtich, I welcome it.

55% chance we get Fredericked. Book it.  We should go find Cantore tomorrow.

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Sorry for the non-contributing question: Do soundings support LWX's "some thunder is possible" argument? 

 

Definitely a pile of reports upstream all afternoon of thunder with all precip types. There will be thunder for some people. not sure where but I"m pretty confident some posts will come in tomorrow saying "OMG ++++TSSN!!!!". Central va most likely but I"m not the one to ask about specifics. I suck at convection soundings/parameters. 

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