Ltrain Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Isn't Tony Pann on Channel 9 with Topper? Or did he move? He moved back to Baltimore at least 5 or 6 years ago. After Neil Estano left. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here's a good animation for the hrrr from weatherbell. It's free and updates every hour. It shows the changeover line pretty well. Also, the hrrr did great for the storm on 2/12. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif Very nice link, thank you very much for it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Isn't Tony Pann on Channel 9 with Topper? Or did he move? NO, he is back with Tommy T on Ch 11 Baltimore, been there a couple of years now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I agree. I think the 4" side is a little low, but otherwise no big issues. The only little change he should have made is make his 4-7" 5-7" instead. Otherwise it is probably the best map i have seen so far. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Mark's final call: http://madusweather.com/2014/03/winter-storm-threat-mar-2-3-final-call/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 8am. Where do I sign? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 7z could be snow depending on rates Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR says PhineasC was right about a north tick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wintrymix, would 7" still be reasonable in Glyndon? This storm is looking like a beast on the radar. Reasonable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RAP is dead on with sfc temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Here's a good animation for the hrrr from weatherbell. It's free and updates every hour. It shows the changeover line pretty well. Also, the hrrr did great for the storm on 2/12. http://models.weatherbell.com/news/hrrr_current_ne.gif Great link! Thanks! Now to go back to staring at the pretty colors. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 8am. Where do I sign? On the a Mason-Dixon Line, Sold! image.jpg Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 8am. Where do I sign? image.jpg Haha! I'd say that the border of upstate-New York and Pennsylvania is straight and long enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR says PhineasC was right about a north tick. you aren't going to get flushed with this one, but you should be ok...you know the drill every storm and how you end up ok...you may wrap up a little earlier than other...say 11-12 or so, and not get into the heaviest bands, but no reason you cant do 4-6" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 RAP is dead on with sfc temps i'd hope so -- it's ingesting new surface obs when it re-initializes every hour -- if we can't initialize a model right it's back to the drawing board Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Wow. Radar is looking very robust to our west. Looks like a wall of fun times on the way. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
I-83 BLIZZARD Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR says PhineasC was right about a north tick.Every storm. Bands always seem to set up here. Climo ftw. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 i'd hope so -- it's ingesting new surface obs when it re-initializes every hour -- if we can't initialize a model right it's back to the drawing board not just initialized but several hours in...21z RAP had 0z temps nailed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 HRRR says PhineasC was right about a north tick. It does look a smidge north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 not just initialized but several hours in...21z RAP had 0z temps nailed i figured thats what you were going after -- it's always good in these sharp boundaries that things don't get too out of hand early in the forecast -- makes it hard to believe anything after it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 not just initialized but several hours in...21z RAP had 0z temps nailed I'm prob weenieing out but I can't stop thinking about how heavy the rates can be with this for a couple hours. Very dynamic system with all kinds of convective stuff feeding into it. HRRR really likes 2-3" OTG by 7am. I could see some of us get 2"+/hr rates for a couple hours. Prob sometime between 6am-10am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
chris87 Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm prob weenieing out but I can't stop thinking about how heavy the rates can be with this for a couple hours. Very dynamic system with all kinds of convective stuff feeding into it. HRRR really likes 2-3" OTG by 7am. I could see some of us get 2"+/hr rates for a couple hours. Prob sometime between 6am-10am. i'm still excited for worst-case -- steady snow and temps falling through the teens during the day Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm feeling about 10x more optimistic than earlier. I like radar and the HRRRRRRRRRRR. Temps are crashing a bit earlier, but unlike Mtich, I welcome it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 3, 2014 Author Share Posted March 3, 2014 i'm still excited for worst-case -- steady snow and temps falling through the teens during the day That's just it...I think we're good when even in the worst case we do ok. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sorry for the non-contributing question: Do soundings support LWX's "some thunder is possible" argument? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 i'm still excited for worst-case -- steady snow and temps falling through the teens during the day Yea, this is no doubt going down as a very special march storm. No way around that. It will be a while before we duplicate it. We might duplicate the 2/12-13 hecs in 10 days though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 I'm feeling about 10x more optimistic than earlier. I like radar and the HRRRRRRRRRRR. Temps are crashing a bit earlier, but unlike Mtich, I welcome it. 55% chance we get Fredericked. Book it. We should go find Cantore tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 Sorry for the non-contributing question: Do soundings support LWX's "some thunder is possible" argument? Definitely a pile of reports upstream all afternoon of thunder with all precip types. There will be thunder for some people. not sure where but I"m pretty confident some posts will come in tomorrow saying "OMG ++++TSSN!!!!". Central va most likely but I"m not the one to ask about specifics. I suck at convection soundings/parameters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 55% chance we get Fredericked. Book it. We should go find Cantore tomorrow. Try to tackle him and make sure to wear your cup. I really expect to see you and Randy on You Tube tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 3, 2014 Share Posted March 3, 2014 So here's a question for the mets and BUFKIT junkies. With colder, drier air working in, is it possible this prevents the good dendrites from forming and instead we see snow grains or pellets that really do not accumulate? Not trying to incite rage, just a inquiry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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