WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z UKMET was around ~20mm of snow -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us Okay then, so the UK, RGEM, GFS, and ECMWF all show around .75" of liquid precip while all snow. That's 8-10" depending on your SLR of choice. Alrighty then -- I think we're done here. Time to go over to the OBS thread and not worry about the NAM, especially if the SREF showers a better distribution of QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am going all in. DC Metro 8-12''. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm disappointed in this thread today. I'm moving to nowcast/obs. Rap/hrrrr time People should lighten up a bit. As we close everyone gets either excited or anxious. We could all take ourselves a little less seriously.. scrolling isn't that hard. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 People should lighten up a bit. As we close everyone gets either excited or anxious. We could all take ourselves a little less seriously.. scrolling isn't that hard. I'm pretty easy going so its not a big deal to me but we are on the doorstep of a high impact event. There are 100's of lurkers/readers. This thread is the spotlight of the board and it didn't go well. We usually do better with manners and disco and such. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm pretty easy going so its not a big deal to me but we are on the doorstep of a high impact event. There are 100's of lurkers/readers. This thread is the spotlight of the board and it didn't go well. We usually do better with manners and disco and such. May I suggest that if someone makes a post you don't think is appropriate, message them privately to insult and demean them? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z RAP continues where its previous runs left off - changeover to snow for DC around 3am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why are we not in storm mode? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z RAP continues where its previous runs left off - changeover to snow for DC around 3am. RAP ever since 14z has had the flip to snow right at or just before 3am... I think that's a pretty good indication that changeover to snow should be around then... RAP also has frozen precip from midnight on... dunno if that is sleet or freezing rain though Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper call: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP ever since 14z has had the flip to snow right at or just before 3am... I think that's a pretty good indication that changeover to snow should be around then... RAP also has frozen precip from midnight on... dunno if that is sleet or freezing rain though I think we're going to more rain-->sleet--> snow than rain-->fzra-->snow or rain-->fzra-->sleet-->snow based on the soundings I've seen. Wxmeddler also said he was getting rapl in Millersville already. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper call: hmm, probably bit too hard on the south trend there Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 hmm, 12Z Euro skewt at BWI AND DCA for 6Z are a rimmed snow sounding (I know 12Z came out a while ago but the skewts just became available) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper call: I like this call, actually. Worst case is he busts too low around Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP ever since 14z has had the flip to snow right at or just before 3am... I think that's a pretty good indication that changeover to snow should be around then... RAP also has frozen precip from midnight on... dunno if that is sleet or freezing rain though Yup, agreed. Regarding precip type, I think its likely sleet. The warm layer isn't 'deep' enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper call: that map is stupid. WTF have a 4-8 and 6-8 zone? And then there's a gap between the 8 and 10 min total zones? Get that clown off the air. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper call: Note that the key at the top does not match the totals written on the map. Someone screwed up the graphic I think. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 that map is stupid. WTF have a 4-8 and 6-8 zone? And then there's a gap between the 8 and 10 min total zones? Get that clown off the air. yes no one gets 8-10. he's either a clown or a genius. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 that map is stupid. WTF have a 4-8 and 6-8 zone? And then there's a gap between the 8 and 10 min total zones? Get that clown off the air. when you come down to it, the map is 4-8" from RIC to MD/PA border, with a strip of 10-14" in the middle Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 hmm, probably bit too hard on the south trend there It's a bad map. Seems too low north and too high south and the ranges are weird. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 that map is stupid. WTF have a 4-8 and 6-8 zone? And then there's a gap between the 8 and 10 min total zones? Get that clown off the air. Good points. I agree with the 4-8" north of Baltimore, but I think the heaviest snow should be more towards DC. Also, it appears that the southern portion of this snow map was heavily influenced by the NAM. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 look at the temp differences over such a short area to our south there will be a lot of precip with this, in one form or another, that is for certain http://weather.unisys.com/surface/sfc_map.php?inv=0&t=cur®ion=at&expanddiv=hide_bar Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z RAP kind of nails DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 hmm, probably bit too hard on the south trend there agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z RAP kind of nails DC Very nice run, good for Baltimore and south as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper edited the map, but still didn't fix the missing 8-10": Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, I tweeted to him that it didnt make sense and he edited it right after I still think his map is about 50 miles too far south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 21z RAP kind of nails DC It's a pretty big step from 2 hours ago. When the RAP moves big it usually is pretty good. At least that's my experience. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper edited the map, but still didn't fix the missing 8-10": He's not done I hope. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP sim radar at 10am tomorrow is nice, but I wonder how much longer we go before it sags south of the area. A 25-50 mile bump to the north would be nice. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper's map is turrible "barkley voice" LOL how is 8-10 not possible? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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