mosi76 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS is a very nice hit for DCi thought it looked improved around h18 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS is a very nice hit for DC Much better look for the sub forum, worlds apart from the NAM wrt sharp cutoff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS stops the bleeding, at least a little. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS BOOM Yup. Thru 1pm image.jpg Amazing...so it not only holds its serve from before, but it actually goes the opposite way of what the NAM has been doing. ETA: This close in, that's kind of a large jump it seems. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Better than 12Z across the area. Better precip further north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS stops the bleeding, at least a little. I'm not sure what bleeding there is supposed to be when the world's best model and 2nd best and 3rd best (GFS and GGEM in some order) show a snowstorm of the exact size we are expecting...6-10" for most. Were people really cliff diving over the hi-res NAM? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 i looked at every model and everyone has a signal for that timeframe the threat is real but too far out to get excited. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS....0.75" falls AFTER 9z for DC nice! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxMan1 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RGEM at DCA is 19mm snow and 3mm sleet 19 mm = 1.9 cm = ~ 0.75". Figure a 11-13 to 1 ratio during the snow, and you've got your 8-10". The RGEM and ECMWF have been rock solid of late, and are getting support from the 18Z GFS. I didn't see any 12Z UKMet data, but it sure does look like the NAM is on an island by itself.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS should be a snow sounding at DCA at 4am. Yes, small warm nose in there but its really small Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm not sure what bleeding there is supposed to be when the world's best model and 2nd best and 3rd best (GFS and GGEM in some order) show a snowstorm of the exact size we are expecting...6-10" for most. Were people really cliff diving over the hi-res NAM? That, and the "regular" operational NAM. But I agree with what you're saying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS = great hit for everyone south of the M/D line Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm not sure what bleeding there is supposed to be when the world's best model and 2nd best and 3rd best (GFS and GGEM in some order) show a snowstorm of the exact size we are expecting...6-10" for most. Were people really cliff diving over the hi-res NAM? Yes... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm not sure what bleeding there is supposed to be when the world's best model and 2nd best and 3rd best (GFS and GGEM in some order) show a snowstorm of the exact size we are expecting...6-10" for most. Were people really cliff diving over the hi-res NAM? Yes and it's GD pathetic Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS looks to be only a tad north. The precip band is in about the same place. What it is is it's wetter throughout the precip stripe as far as I can tell. Good hit for all IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Afternoon high-res NAM had the bulk of the frozen precip here between 10p-4a, then nothing falling during the day on Monday. 18Z GFS has the heaviest after 4 a.m. lasting until 10. No consensus on a sleep window. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surely someone in this thread has kept stats on whether these modeled storms do in fact take a jog north (or not) when we're within 12 hours of the actual event. So I actually kinda have been tracking the various model's results with each of the last six storms/potential storms. For the RGEM, NAM, GFS, GGEM and EC group, and Inside the 36hr window, the REGM has typically been best at catching a significant "warm surprise" (when one takes place) and or better at identifying sharp snow/no snow accumulation gradients on the south/warm rain-snow transition zone. Inside of 24 hours my notes (only four storms) found that the NAM, RGEM, GFS, and especially GGEM/EC, remained unrealistically persistent. The H-many-R and RAP have actually done impressively well. At least with thermal profile, RADAR trends, and total measured snow. I don't know, however, if the snow accumulation differences might be attributed to one set of model images (NAM, RGEM, GFS, etc) being based on a strict 10:1 ratio and the other set (HR+ and RAP) being based on a more flexible ratio. I don't even know if either set of models attempts to account for changing ratios for that matter... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS = great hit for everyone south of the M/D line right...so everyone in this forum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 how much does the GFS show for 10 miles north of Baltimore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS and Euro agree. Game over Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 19 mm = 1.9 cm = ~ 0.75". Figure a 11-13 to 1 ratio during the snow, and you've got your 8-10". The RGEM and ECMWF have been rock solid of late, and are getting support from the 18Z GFS. I didn't see any 12Z UKMet data, but it sure does look like the NAM is on an island by itself.. 12z UKMET was around ~20mm of snow -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=ukmet&run=12&var=std〈=en&map=us Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS and Euro agree. Game over much sad. so warm. FL wows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gotta go to an Anniversary event and won't be back until 11pm and then will do hourly obs until must sleep. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 how much does the GFS show for 10 miles north of Baltimore? Only looks good to 5 miles north of Balt. Expect small shifts of 1-2 miles Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yes and it's GD pathetic That's very true. Yet it's still nagging and disconcerting that the NAM (and yeah, the hi-res) is adamant with the sharp cut-off and somewhat lesser amounts. It seem similar to what the GFS was doing for the Feb. 12-13 storm in some ways...not the same scenario, I know, but in terms of every other piece of guidance saying something different. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DCA destruction tomorrow morning Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 how much does the GFS show for 10 miles north of Baltimore? 6-10! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 how much does the GFS show for 10 miles north of Baltimore? hush Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm disappointed in this thread today. I'm moving to nowcast/obs. Rap/hrrrr time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Gotta go to an Anniversary event and won't be back until 11pm and then will do hourly obs until must sleep. Happy 70th year of busting weather forecasts:) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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