Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That RGEM plot looks very nice...almost a battle between it and the NAM in terms of regional models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 zwyts insulted me. That is not right. I did nothing wrong. All I was saying is that according to the map I was looking at, it shows 2-4" for DC. The higher amounts are of course on the south side. He claims I am wrong, yet he still didn't tell me how much it shows. I mention D.C. because I assumed most on this forum live in/near DC. Maue posted 18 z hi-res NAM snowfall map. This IS ~4 for DC. I don't get this whole discussion. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/440228268612915200 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have this weird feeling that you see the model output on your NWS desktop PC like 15-30 minutes before the rest of us and want to toy with people. With as fast as we disseminate it and people pick up the data, process it and display it on their sites, nope. It actually amazes me how fast it gets out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That RGEM plot looks very nice...almost a battle between it and the NAM in terms of regional models. The RGEM has been rock solid over the past 2 days. Given it's consistency run-to-run, I'd go with it over the NAM. Not saying the NAM is wrong, but it certainly isn't consistent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 With as fast as we disseminate it and people pick up the data, process it and display it on their sites, nope. It actually amazes me how fast it gets out. Yeah, I typically look at the NCEP site for the models, and almost every time the discussion in here is way ahead of what I see on their site! Half the time, I read the stuff in here, then go back retroactively and look once all the forecast projections have loaded. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM has been rock solid over the past 2 days. Given it's consistency run-to-run, I'd go with it over the NAM. Not saying the NAM is wrong, but it certainly isn't consistent. Biggest difference I see just comparing the RGEM vs. NAM is the precip cut-off to the north. It's much less (or at least much farther north) on the RGEM. That, and it appears its heavy precip axis is a little north of the NAM too. Other than that, seems to me the overall evolution at various levels is similar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AlaskaETC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hi-RES NAM looks miserable. 3 inches for DC. Wow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That is what I am seeing also. Actually, all the models seem to be similar in thermal profile and evolution, just with slight north/south variations and the big difference is the precip cutoff on the north side. Only the NAM is cutting it anywhere near that sharp. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I notice the 15z SREF plumes are not tracking with NAM's southern track, still showing 6-10" for DC and 5-9" for Baltimore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol I'm praying that's finally a good storm for me too. It's total fiction but pretty to look at. i looked at every model and everyone has a signal for that timeframe Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hi res nam might be on to something? Shows some higher amounts north and west but only where there is some higher elevation (ie Catoctin mtn) could be that nam is picking up on colder air coming in more quickly meaning that first few hours of precipitation will already be snow up there. We stay rain here in dc longer and by the time precip changes to snow most of it has moved south. And so upper me dc and lower montgomery county get very little snow. Looking forward to feedback on my comment. No insults please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hi-RES NAM looks miserable. 3 inches for DC. Wow. only if you dont understand how to read a model....congrats on your 15th post! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The RGEM has been rock solid over the past 2 days. Given it's consistency run-to-run, I'd go with it over the NAM. Not saying the NAM is wrong, but it certainly isn't consistent. Yeah, but one can be consistently (stubbornly) wrong. The RGEM started off 3F too warm at FDK and IAD at 18Z. Now, as of 21Z, it's off by 6F/3.3C at FDK and 9F/4.8C at IAD. FWIW, the NAM is within .75C for both locations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Upper nw dc that is Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
lpaschall Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maue posted 18 z hi-res NAM snowfall map. This IS ~4 for DC. I don't get this whole discussion. https://twitter.com/ryanmaue/status/440228268612915200 zwyts insulted me. That is not right. I did nothing wrong. All I was saying is that according to the map I was looking at, it shows 2-4" for DC. The higher amounts are of course on the south side. He claims I am wrong, yet he still didn't tell me how much it shows. I mention D.C. because I assumed most on this forum live in/near DC. He appears to have been insulting and had zero patience for the past 48 hours. I dont post much except in observation as I have nothing to ad of value. I would not ask him specifically though it appears based on recent posts he will respond in a annoyed if not downright rude manner. Maybe....The questions can be answered by others on the board and some of you on this board can realize all questions are not directed at you and you only.. Just my two cents and I know its banter... That being said I appreciate all of the great work and analysis on this site. Sometimes we need to read a little more and not ask as many questions. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RGEM at DCA is 19mm snow and 3mm sleet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surely someone in this thread has kept stats on whether these modeled storms do in fact take a jog north (or not) when we're within 12 hours of the actual event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 nobody should be making posts that end in a question mark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have this weird feeling that you see the model output on your NWS desktop PC like 15-30 minutes before the rest of us and want to toy with people. It's more like 30 - 40min. All the data first has to go to the "post processing team" before it's released to the public. The PPT changes all the values in the data files by a random +/-15% before publication... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 And all the throwing around of the high res NAM...I believe they are referencing the fire wx nest which is pretty bad. RM should be able to see that with the precip holes in MoCo. I'd stick with the NAM itself for QPF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BHweather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 In obs thread there seems to be concern about temps dropping quickly. Would that not support what hi res nam is showing? If not why not? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 nobody should be making posts that end in a question mark.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You seem to only show up with bad news for big storms. Not true. In fact three storms ago I actually posted, "I'd like to point out that this was a positive post. I don't just show up to end Ji's snow dreams". So there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 20z RAP at 14z MON (9am) has DCA at 6" and still snowing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ltrain Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Mikey Masco's map. Looks pretty good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS is a very nice hit for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 20z RAP at 14z MON (9am) has DCA at 6" and still snowing Yeah, but the precip looks to be sinking south. Not a great look. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS BOOM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS is a very nice hit for DCYup.Thru 1pm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z GFS....0.75" falls AFTER 9z for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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