Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP is okay. Probably .5-.6 QPF snow by 8AM with at least a couple more hours to go. Verbatim and extrapolated it is 7-8 inches for DC hmm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EHoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This thread is unreadable....all the time put into the storm and come go time it becomes a total sh-itshow...many of you are awful posters There are some of us that just read the thread that really appreciate your input. But yeah this thread has gotten horrific. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What is the NAM seeing that all of our weenie eyes do not? Just the push of cold is so fierce that its got everything continually shifting south? Hmmmmmm. I forgot Cantore was going to DC. Now I get it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like he just replicated the Euro snow map. LOL, he always does. That and/or the HPC maps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cut everything in half north of DC and it will look a lot more believable I say cut it by a quarter and see how it feels before you chop off the entire half. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Honestly, I don't even know who to trust when posts are made. We have outside people come in and people being fringed in northern areas saying no storm and next when nothing has really changed. What a debacle like the caps just had... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 19z RAP flips DCA to snow around 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 "verbatim and extrapolated" That's a new one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
84 Hour NAM Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really wish this was more of a day snow. Whoever wakes up at 4am to see the start is a psychopath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Please correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the HI-RES NAM show 2-4" for DC? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Huffwx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Matt is right. Accu w is the kiddie board, not here. Not saying this matters but my dad in parkersburg wv changed to snow 6 hours early Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Current fronts map from HPC... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namfntsfcwbg.gif The Low which will be our snow maker is sitting over SW Arkansas. Might be helpful to compare actual conditions to model initializations since we're so close to the event. Facts on the ground may dictate different outcomes than taking the models verbatim at this short time frame. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I say cut it by a quarter and see how it feels before you chop off the entire half. Wintrymix, would 7" still be reasonable in Glyndon? This storm is looking like a beast on the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really wish this was more of a day snow. Whoever wakes up at 4am to see the start is a psychopath Well, I went out with ruler and camera in hand around 3AM during the Feb. 12-13 storm, to experience the snow pouring out of the sky! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Current fronts map from HPC... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namfntsfcwbg.gif The Low which will be our snow maker is sitting over SW Arkansas. Might be helpful to compare actual conditions to model initializations since we're so close to the event. Facts on the ground may dictate different outcomes than taking the models verbatim at this short time frame. So TerpWeather is not seeing things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Please correct me if I am wrong, but doesn't the HI-RES NAM show 2-4" for DC? NO!!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM did initialize a little further south than where the WPC has the low right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TerpWeather Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Current fronts map from HPC... http://www.hpc.ncep.noaa.gov/sfc/namfntsfcwbg.gif The Low which will be our snow maker is sitting over SW Arkansas. Might be helpful to compare actual conditions to model initializations since we're so close to the event. Facts on the ground may dictate different outcomes than taking the models verbatim at this short time frame. What's the motion on that? It should be E or NE right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What a beast - stretching from Cape Cod back to western TX. http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Then how much DOES it show? You still didn't answer that from my previous post. I'm no expert but it certainly shows more than 2-4". It looks like ~0.4+" falls as snow for me but I'll defer to Matt to see what he says. ETA: This is for MBY...no offense, but I don't really care about Havre de Grace so if you were talking about there, I didn't look up there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Then how much DOES it show? You still didn't answer that from my previous post. nobody has time to coddle you...just sit back and read and enjoy whatever falls...hundreds of people are fine just browsing, yet you have to post and constantly ask questions and offer NOTHING....your posts dont contribute anything....so why post?.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM...hit Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Just got an automatic call from AA county emergency management: "up to 14 inches" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 On radar it kinda looks like the big rainstorm we had in early feb except this time it misses us to the south instead of the north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What is the NAM seeing that all of our weenie eyes do not? Just the push of cold is so fierce that its got everything continually shifting south? Hmmmmmm. I forgot Cantore was going to DC. Now I get it. Maybe not as much pushing and shifting but the cold dry air on a constant march southward during the morning/afternoon "eating up" the precip on the northern edge. Might be a reason for the sharp gradient on the north side of the QPF. Looking at 1000-500 mb average RH the NAM and Euro have similar >70% fields but the NAM's northern edge has a sharp gradient and a big area of <30% RH whereas the Euro isn't quite as dry. Maybe it's overdone. The 18Z GFS will be very telling! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM...hit did you see the 30-50 inch snowstorm euro has at 240? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Maybe not as much pushing and shifting but the cold dry air on a constant march southward during the morning/afternoon "eating up" the precip on the northern edge. Might be a reason for the sharp gradient on the north side of the QPF. Looking at 1000-500 mb average RH the NAM and Euro have similar >70% fields but the NAM's northern edge has a sharp gradient and a big area of <30% RH whereas the Euro isn't quite as dry. Maybe it's overdone. The 18Z GFS will be very telling! I have this weird feeling that you see the model output on your NWS desktop PC like 15-30 minutes before the rest of us and want to toy with people. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 did you see the 30-50 inch snowstorm euro has at 240? lol I'm praying that's finally a good storm for me too. It's total fiction but pretty to look at. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What's the motion on that? It should be E or NE right? Looks to be NE at present but the front itself and the associated precip run a little closer to due East then ENE closer to the coast. Will be interesting to see how much further south the front will sag by the time the Low reaches our region. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 My god! Do people realize that models don't determine weather? We are less than 12 hours away. It's done. Whatever it is, it is. Who cares "what it shows"? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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