nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I would say somewhere between CHO and EZF will end up the bullseye for snow. NAM would still verify here on the low end of the 6-10" call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Luckily we all can consume the booze stocks we bought for our 15 inches. I need to get started on my homework Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Hour to hour comparison of the 12z GFS and the 18z NAM - the NAM is further north than the GFS. However, the NAM has a very sharp northern cutoff, while the GFS spreads much further north (by 50-100 miles further north) with moderate snow. This is the big difference between the snowfall totals in northern MD. The NAM fringes northern MD, while the GFS fringes southern PA. The GFS storm center track however is 25 miles or so south of the NAM. It also doesn't look like the 12z GFS was as well formed a storm as the NAM has. I'd lean with the NAM over the GFS, but I think the sharp cutoff on the north side of the NAM is not likely to be that sharp - none of the other models are showing it that sharp. If it's not as sharp, will be a good snow event for everyone! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
the moors in england Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Congrats Fredricksburg/Straford. You guys deserve it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
blue sky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Luckily we all can consume the booze stocks we bought for our 15 inches. Seriously. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Congrats Fredricksburg/Straford. You guys deserve it. Stratford on Avon? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Someone asked for the 12z EURO map. Thanks...though those totals seem a little crazy... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM actually isn't that bad for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM actually isn't that bad for DC 6-7 is what I see... That's all I need, and is acceptable. I agree with Phin, it'll find a way to jog a little north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is absolutely fine for DC and in fact BETTER verbatim than 12z...so whatever...i am going to run along...enjoy the thread! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 6-7 is what I see... That's all I need, and is acceptable. I agree with Phin, it'll find a way to jog a little north. I was hoping so, but with temps underperforming today, I don't think that's happening. It's not often we have the PV positioned the way it is with a storm right underneath.... this is a different beast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 4km NAM changeover at/just before 9z as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Of course DT is a little overdone but not a bad map overall. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is absolutely fine for DC and in fact BETTER verbatim than 12z...so whatever...i am going to run along...enjoy the thread! Same. I am expecting 5". Anymore than that is great Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Looks like he just replicated the Euro snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HI-RES NAM is horrible for D.C... It actually shows more snow north and south lol... Looks like 2-4" for D.C. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Of course DT is a little overdone but not a bad map overall. Cut everything in half north of DC and it will look a lot more believable Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HI-RES NAM is horrible for D.C... It actually shows more snow north and south lol... Looks like 2-4" for D.C. Are you looking at a snow map or something? Doesn't look bad for DCA to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HI-RES NAM is horrible for D.C... It actually shows more snow north and south lol... Looks like 2-4" for D.C. Either it's noise or the Phineas band Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 One more shift south and I wont get an inch. Getting a bit close for comfort at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Are you looking at a snow map or something? Doesn't look bad for DCA to me. Yeah, I was looking at WeatherBELL. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 HI-RES NAM is horrible for D.C... It actually shows more snow north and south lol... Looks like 2-4" for D.C. you should probably learn to read a model Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This thread is unreadable....all the time put into the storm and come go time it becomes a total sh-itshow...many of you are awful posters Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Actually looks closer to 9" upon further check... C VA (CHO to EZF area) is the winner 15Z SREF held serve from 09Z as far as precip axis...as far as mean snowfall, it's a bigger hit along the main axis. DCA/IAD held at 8" on the plumes for both runs. As you said, max's are SHD => CJR at 12-14". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Do you think fairfax will close schools? DC metrobus system is closed tomorrow morning. Go figure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 0.7" on 4KM NAM (0.8" less than a mile to my south) of which probably ~0.4" is all snow considering we changeover at 9z. I like the earlier changeover for sure. I don't see how that's 2-4" but maybe I'm wrong. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cut everything in half north of DC and it will look a lot more believable I REFUSE TO CUT MY NINE INCHES IN HALF. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 you should probably learn to read a model Could you show me I'm wrong instead of insulting me? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NOVAForecaster Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM is a southern outlier. Not too concerned at this point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP is okay. Probably .5-.6 QPF snow by 8AM with at least a couple more hours to go. Verbatim and extrapolated it is 7-8 inches for DC Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.