yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 DCA goes below 32 btwn 12am-1am per 18z NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Big NAM run. I am a little worried it will cut back precip a lot... Aren't you the one who expects the northerly meso band Phin? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eyewall Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS Baltimore/DC is also taking some heat for the shifts on FB: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.BaltimoreWashington.gov Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 09z at DCA is a snow sounding Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Personally I think the estimates are underdoing the snow totals. Here is why: 1. Surface temperatures at 7am are in the mid-teens, while the warmest temperature in the column is around 25C per RAP sounding. 2. Temperatures are continuing to fall. These temperatures should result in 15:1 ratios by dawn, with potential 20:1 ratios by storm end. This will bump up the totals, especially across the northern areas that have less QPF. Thus the focal south may be less pronounced than many of the model runes (especially those 10:1 graphics out of WXBell) have been showing. Just my two cents. Here's the RAP sounding: http://www.twisterdata.com/index.php?sounding.lat=39.1182&sounding.lon=-77.0689&sndclick=y&prog=forecast&model=RAP&grid=255&model_yyyy=2014&model_mm=03&model_dd=02&model_init_hh=18&fhour=18¶meter=TMPF&level=2&unit=M_ABOVE_GROUND&maximize=n&mode=singlemap&sounding=y&output=image&view=large&archive=false Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surprised no one is mentioning the Hi-Res NAM. Keeps Central MD in the 10+ game. (Factoring in ratios) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 New NAM looks like a sharp cutoff line reaching pretty close to DC now. Most of the storm is DC south. I'm going to keep hugging the RGEM/UKMET/ECMWF/GFS for their better (aka snowier) runs for most of our area! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS Baltimore/DC is also taking some heat for the shifts on FB: https://www.facebook.com/US.NationalWeatherService.BaltimoreWashington.gov Criticism is good... Kudos to the brave willing to do it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Disc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 hosj III, on 02 Mar 2014 - 2:56 PM, said: Surprised no one is mentioning the Hi-Res NAM. Keeps Central MD in the 10+ game. (Factoring in ratios) That's because that's the 12z NAM. Old news now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z NAM 6" line runs right through DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The 18Z NAM isn't pretty. Drier again DCA north... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd love to say the NAM is wrong but honestly it tends to do well on the edges. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Aren't you the one who expects the northerly meso band Phin? I do, but I don't want to see the models continue to slide south and/or dry-up or the northern band might be over DCA. 18Z NAM isn't helping... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Nam won't make many friends north of Woodbridge. It's either going to score the coup or lose more respect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Only a matter of time before the "1-3" is fine for March" rationalizations start Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lets toss it and pretend we didn't see it. Even though I would take 6", I think we'd all like a little more... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NAM is a big woof unless you're south of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SabreAce33 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Anyone got the 12z Euro snowfall map? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The NAM is just doing it's thing... You know, the thing where it sets up 100 mile too far south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm happy with some rain showers. I've already won. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Only a matter of time before the "1-3" is fine for March" rationalizations start Luckily we all can consume the booze stocks we bought for our 15 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Surprised no one is mentioning the Hi-Res NAM. Keeps Central MD in the 10+ game. (Factoring in ratios) we discussed that 6 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Only a matter of time before the "1-3" is fine for March" rationalizations start And the "We were only really in for this much all along, I don't know why people believed those model runs" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is like the fourth model cycle with this pattern. NAM goes south and other models hang tough further north. Fingers crossed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ouch not going to lie, this run is starting to make me hold the rug down very tight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Anyone got the 12z Euro snowfall map? it's in this thread two hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sparky Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Will this storm have much wind with it? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Ouch not going to lie, this run is starting to make me hold the rug down very tight. Yeah, I'm suddenly pretty uncomfortable. This trend has not been good today. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Someone asked for the 12z EURO map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is like the fourth model cycle with this pattern. NAM goes south and other models hang tough further north. Fingers crossed. Well the NAM now has some consistency and other models have moved a bit south (not as much as it has), so it's a little concerning, but not enough to panic yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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