Pityflakes Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So much tension considering that we basically have model consensus on a significant, cold, snowstorm in March. I suppose the far NW guys could be a little nervous but need to remember climo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 PV a touch weaker on GFS so far.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I am glad to see the chances of extensive freezing rain out this way appears to be diminishing prior to the snowfall. I wouldn't count that out yet. As models are coming in colder, possible ZR/IP from the first wave running up the front on Sunday evening now. Earlier today that was supposed to be all rain, but the latest NAM soundings look to be a chance of a mix late Sunday evening creeping in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I wouldn't count that out yet. As models are coming in colder, possible ZR/IP from the first wave running up the front on Sunday evening now. Earlier today that was supposed to be all rain, but the latest NAM soundings look to be a chance of a mix late Sunday evening creeping in. Yes...I think what happens late evening sunday, esp for the FDK/Westminster guys is far from decided Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Not as bad as I thought. RGEM is solid hit. Yes it is. Though I still get a headache from those maps. Still I know that 25 mm is about an inch Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
gymengineer Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes. not a shut out by any means, but heaviest is south The orientation of the heaviest axis doesn't look south at all compared to the 12Z run-- maybe just a bit drier? But yes, the end result is 0.6"-0.9" liquid area-wide as snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Roughly speaking for jyo nam is .24 rain .20 freezy rain .15 sleet before the snow....and .61 snow...just giving text output for my general area for reference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 By hour 36 on the 18z GFS, parts of central MD are snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS is south Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 From WPC's 4:30 heavy snowfall discussion: THEN ON MON... THE MORE UNIQUE PART OF THE SYSTEM... AS THE SHARPTHERMAL ZONE AND ARCTIC AIR MASS SURGE ACROSS THE APPALACHIANSINTO THE MID-ATL REGION TO SET UP A MAJOR SNOWFALL ACROSS DC/BALAND PERHAPS THE PHL METRO AREAS. THE LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM WILLTRACK ACROSS NRN MS/AL/GA TO THE SOUTHEAST... A COPIOUS AMOUNT OFLL MOISTURE WILL ARRIVE INTO THE COLD SECTOR FOR YET ANOTHER SWATHOF HEAVY SNOW AND ICE. THE 12Z GUIDANCE HAS ALSO NARROWED THEFORECAST SPREAD... DEPICTING A NARROW BUT INTENSE DYNAMIC COOLINGHEAVY SNOWFALL BAND SETTING UP NORTH OF THE FRONT... ESPECIALLYINVOF OF THE NW QUAD OF THE SURFACE LOW. THUS HEAVY SNOW WILL BEPOSSIBLE FROM SRN MO/NRN AR TO THE DELMARVA COAST WITH THEHEAVIEST AMOUNTS APPROACHING DOUBLE DIGITS OCCURRING FROM ERNKY/SRN WV THROUGH MD/NRN VA AND DE/SRN NJ AND TERRIBLE SOCIETALTIMING AROUND THE DC/BAL AREA MON MORNING. MEANWHILE ICE/SLEETWILL SETUP SOUTH AND EAST OF THE HEAVY SNOW WITH SIGNIFICANTACCUMULATIONS POSSIBLE FROM SRN AR NORTH AND EAST TO WRN TN/SRNKY... WHICH COULD BE PARALYZING. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 The 3-hr panel at h48 on the GFS indicates inch + rates for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS still a really nice hit. Probably 6-10" for DC proper. Most to the S/SE. A shift of 25 miles or so will be big for some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Might be smallish but really no sun today to warm the ground. If the baro is 30.35+ at 6pm tomorrow then I am worried about suppression. Otherwise this is a not common set up where cold air and moisture are arriving in tandem like; this is not really a "force down" by the high but more like the cold air would be pushing the moisture along such that the main effect is eastward as opposed to southward. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS - my estimate - snow 6" DC 5" Baltimore Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Ah...Much better. I'd take that 6", but if ratios are actually high, maybe I can bump that to 8". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 GFS still a really nice hit. Probably 6-10" for DC proper. Most to the S/SE. A shift of 25 miles or so will be big for some. I dont see the model indicating 8"+ at all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LWX is calling for 15:1 ratios. Climatology suggests a widespread 4" to 7" with much more in the jackpot zone. The map below is really goofy, generally an emotional reaction to the NAM. Makin' maps is tricky! All rights reserved to issue a better version this evening. LWX is more bullish, they seem to run some hours behind the model runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
terpsnation Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Might be smallish but really no sun today to warm the ground. If the baro is 30.35+ at 6pm tomorrow then I am worried about suppression. Otherwise this is a not common set up where cold air and moisture are arriving in tandem like; this is not really a "force down" by the high but more like the cold air would be pushing the moisture along such that the main effect is eastward as opposed to southward. Not sure about you up in B-town, but down here in Arlington and over in Georgetown we had a pretty good amount of sun from about 11 AM - about 2:30. Thermo said it was only 45, but it felt like mid 50s in the sunlight. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I dont see the model indicating 8"+ at all Yea, it's 1.1+/- liquid. About .4 is rain/zr/sleet from my best guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVclimo Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yes...I think what happens late evening sunday, esp for the FDK/Westminster guys is far from decided If my area can get any frozen from the initial wave Sunday evening, it may be all we see. The trends today have been toward a miss here with the bulk of the storm overnight into Monday. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Might be smallish but really no sun today to warm the ground. If the baro is 30.35+ at 6pm tomorrow then I am worried about suppression. Otherwise this is a not common set up where cold air and moisture are arriving in tandem like; this is not really a "force down" by the high but more like the cold air would be pushing the moisture along such that the main effect is eastward as opposed to southward. It isn't going to be remotely close to being that high... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 So much tension considering that we basically have model consensus on a significant, cold, snowstorm in March. I suppose the far NW guys could be a little nervous but need to remember climo. This is not tension. Tension is when one member demands that another member spontaneously self combust. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 I say if 0z stays the same as 18z then I think we can expect a small bump north at 6z if 0z goes a bit more south then I say the cold is what will be most talked about with this thing for us NW guys...it's still gonna snow people...keep calm and enjoy what you get!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 LWX is calling for 15:1 ratios. Climatology suggests a widespread 4" to 7" with much more in the jackpot zone. The map below is really goofy, generally an emotional reaction to the NAM. Makin' maps is tricky! All rights reserved to issue a better version this evening. LWX is more bullish, they seem to run some hours behind the model runs. maryland_90.jpg LWX is calling for 15:1 ratios. Climatology suggests a widespread 4" to 7" with much more in the jackpot zone. The map below is really goofy, generally an emotional reaction to the NAM. Makin' maps is tricky! All rights reserved to issue a better version this evening. LWX is more bullish, they seem to run some hours behind the model runs. maryland_90.jpg haha. That made me smile. And with regards to the GFS....I wasn't assuming 10:1 ratios with the snow portion. Yeah, maybe 6-8 would be a better call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anyone recall a storm this year (that's hit us) that didn't trend N / NW in the final 24 hrs? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Looking at ptype maps looks like a decent slug of sleet around midnight-2am or so. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Yea, it's 1.1+/- liquid. About .4 is rain/zr/sleet from my best guess. we aren't snow in DC until probably 5-6am...maybe 0.55"? after that...so yeah...maybe 7" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 Does anyone recall a storm this year (that's hit us) that didn't trend N / NW in the final 24 hrs? This system is likely to buck the seasonal trend because the arctic airmass is a bit different than the others and the vorticity at 500 mb isn't a intense as some of the others. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 That cutoff on the northern side of the NAM is crazy! Definitely has me worried... LWX has most of the area in the 8-10" zone, for what it's worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 1, 2014 Share Posted March 1, 2014 we aren't snow in DC until probably 5-6am...maybe 0.55"? after that...so yeah...maybe 7" Sounds about right. Does look like the transition from rain/zr/sleet is pretty quick. Before 1am. So could get a nice coating of sleet before snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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