PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As much as I want this to come north, I don't see why it would. All of the models seem to agree on a more southern track, but who knows, maybe Justin's map will verify. I am a broken record but I think there will be an enhanced band running north of the heaviest modeled snow axis. There always seems to be some enhancement due to the colder temps, geography, whatever. Keep an eye on radar overnight and we'll see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RAP has DCA ~15 at 7am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am a broken record but I think there will be an enhanced band running north of the heaviest modeled snow axis. There always seems to be some enhancement due to the colder temps, geography, whatever. Keep an eye on radar overnight and we'll see. But you cannot think 10-14" is a reasonable call. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mdsnoelovertoo Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 is a degreed met out of cornell... yep and he has had really good success this winter too for the most part, and yes he does acknowledge that he leans on the canadian mostly has been good to him this year, next year probably a big huge fail lol btw hit 44 here and now down to 40 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am a broken record but I think there will be an enhanced band running north of the heaviest modeled snow axis. There always seems to be some enhancement due to the colder temps, geography, whatever. Keep an eye on radar overnight and we'll see. You may be right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 He does have his cool-aid followers. For those who really pay attention, he is pretty awful. CWG's new map is spot on IMO, based on a blend of all the current guidance, and proper weighting. Good map from CWG. 6-10 would have been my call but that is splitting hairs. I still think most are underestimating northern MD, southern PA, and the huge snow magnets in those areas this year... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You may be right. I definitely think Phin presents more than a feasible possibility, lots of gradients, convection, and frontogen out there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I am a broken record but I think there will be an enhanced band running north of the heaviest modeled snow axis. There always seems to be some enhancement due to the colder temps, geography, whatever. Keep an eye on radar overnight and we'll see. Good points. Could the snow ratios be 12:1-15:1 during the coldest parts of the storm? Perhaps Justin include this in his forecast... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ender Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From JB2's article... "...After analyzing multiple models along with the satellite, radar, and core energy from California now in Texas that will head out way, I’ve determined this: The arctic boundary is a force beyond the norm in the climatology/history included in the model calculations. There is a lot of history included in how this may play out, but we often don’t have arctic air like this in early March. But the storm that hit California is also stronger than the norm and has a lot of warmer subtropical energy with it. So while the front has been seen to drop father south, I see the final wave of low pressure on Monday that will either push it back north a little or send the moisture farther north with its momentum. Since the Canadian Model does the best with arctic air and it does not push the front too far south, I have considered that to hold the heaviest snow right in the middle of central Maryland..." Thoughts? Without addressing the relevance of historical events in the deterministic rather than statistical output products, I'd like to note that the 19Z surface analysis, most notably the thermal profile, looks a lot more like the 12Z meso NAM's forecast than the 12Z RGEM's guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RAP has DCA ~14 at 7am I don't know much about snow ratio calculations (seems to be an inexact science), but some folks might be surprised if we get 15:1 or better ratios. .7 or .8 inches of precip at those ratios can be big... Wasn't there a storm earlier this year where IAD and other areas had 15-20:1 throughout the storm? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 But you cannot think 10-14" is a reasonable call. No, 6-10 across the area is my call. I am just saying will anyone be surprised if sparky has 10 inches on his deck while southern MD has 7 inches? Never underestimate the northern MD, southern PA snow zone... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't know much about snow ratio calculations (seems to be an inexact science), but some folks might be surprised if we get 15:1 or better ratios. .7 or .8 inches of precip at those ratios can be big... Wasn't there a storm earlier this year where IAD and other areas had 15-20:1 throughout the storm? 1/21 had claimed IAD received 8.5 inches and IIRC 25:1 snow ratios. Though they didn't correspond with nearby observations. That was a great powery cold snow as well however. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I can't wait to miss the event. Brutal but can't stop looking Nah, don't sweat it. 3"/hr +tssn isn't all that it's cracked up to be Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 been dead on all year. I think his map is aggressive and would love verification, but... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good map from CWG. 6-10 would have been my call but that is splitting hairs. I still think most are underestimating northern MD, southern PA, and the huge snow magnets in those areas this year... I just dont know if that applies with this type of event. With the cold pressing so far south, why would there be heavier snow deeper in the arctic air mass? The axis of heavy snow should set up then shift SE with time. I actually think CWG has it nailed with the area of potentially heavier snow. Maybe even a tick south of there. But the reality is, everyone from PA border south is gonna get at least a moderate event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 1/21 had claimed IAD received 8.5 inches and IIRC 25:1 snow ratios. Though they didn't correspond with nearby observations. That was a great powery cold snow as well however.Everyone does it but taking ratios from a tipping bucket compared to a measurement is problematic and tends to overstate ratios. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 been dead on all year. I think his map is aggressive and would love verification, but...Weenies tend to do really well in snowy winters. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You looked at the parallel WM? Was wondering what it is showing, has done very well recently and haven't had a chance to check. I just checked out the http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mpyle/spcprod/00/ and the package of precipitation seems to look almost exacts like the nice RGEM run from last night. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 been dead on all year. I think his map is aggressive and would love verification, but... I disagree. He has missed on some key features on several events, but is very good at explaining it away to his not so weather savvy followers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 15z SREFs on RaleighWx maps show DC at 8" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just dont know if that applies with this type of event. With the cold pressing so far south, why would there be heavier snow deeper in the arctic air mass? The axis of heavy snow should set up then shift SE with time. I actually think CWG has it nailed with the area of potentially heavier snow. Maybe even a tick south of there. But the reality is, everyone from PA border south is gonna get at least a moderate event. We had the same thing several times in 09-10, most notably Jan 30. All I am saying is I have seen this same routine before about there being a mega-cutoff across southern PA when in reality there seems to usually be a megaband up there that saves the day. Just a weenie observation from watching the models and storms for years. Maybe the colder, drier air causes some enhancement to set up as precip rides over it? The earlier changeover could also be a wildcard up there that is not being discussed much. It could take a while for southern MD and RIC to changeover and some of the heavy stuff could fall as sleet or even rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB is getting beat up pretty bad on facebook. Some of the comments are pretty brutal. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Everyone does it but taking ratios from a tipping bucket compared to a measurement is problematic and tends to overstate ratios. Yeah, 25:1 is bunk IMO. 15:1 is a good "cold snow" target with this one. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 15z SREFs on RaleighWx maps show DC at 8" I hate the SREFs, but they backed off quite a bit for up here from 09Z... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I disagree. He has missed on some key features on several events, but is very good at explaining it away to his not so weather savvy followers. Maybe I should have said dead on vs. JB1. Meh. No matter. It will snow and be a great weenie winter conclusion. Except maybe late week too. Haha. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
peribonca Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 well, I for one am ready to get nam'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scuddz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB is getting beat up pretty bad on facebook. Some of the comments are pretty brutal. That's what happens when you pull a forecast completely out of your rectum Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 is a degreed met out of cornell... We know. what is your point? Still doesnt mean we cant disagree. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 15z SREFs on RaleighWx maps show DC at 8" Actually looks closer to 9" upon further check... C VA (CHO to EZF area) is the winner Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 well, I for one am ready to get nam'd Big NAM run. I am a little worried it will cut back precip a lot... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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