DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlizzardNole Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I agree with the posters saying even if the amounts are moderate (4-8") this is going to be a fun event with the steep, rapid temp drop to the possibility of a few rumbles of thunder in the morning. I know it's not the same kind of setup, but it could remind us of the "Hoffman aka Commutageddon" storm that started with light rain, then quickly changed to driving sleet then heavy snow. Thankfully the timing on this one is better on this one so we don't have tons of people trapped in cars trying to get home. Richmond is sunny and in the low 70s LOL -- it would be funny to see them go from grilling on the deck to snow the next day. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Peak at 52 very briefly and then fall off began, down to 47. Glad we are Not having to scour out a bunch of 60+ stuff in immediate area. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 FYI... JB2's final map https://m.facebook.com/54875673475/photos/a.472052198475.261315.54875673475/10152219744803476/?type=1&source=46&refid=17 The article he wrote to accompany the map explains his reasoning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual I thought he changed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual I'm stunned by this. He is clearly continuing to hug the Canadian. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm stunned by this. He is clearly continuing to hug the Canadian. The Canadian does not show this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If JB moved the 8-12 into the 10-14 and so on, it would look more accurate at this time Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual lol what a wishcaster Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The Canadian does not show this Nothing does then. Where is he getting these top end numbers from? This should be his yesterday map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Regarding temps- Here in SE Harford County, the temp only got to 43.4. It is dropping, and now at 41.9. Will the temperatures at this point help determine the track? Also, what did D.C. get to today? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It has it's usefulness. Probably not this though, although you can get a close/hourly view of 0C lines. If you look at the axis of the greatest precip, the 12Z NAM and Euro are pretty darn close...south of DC. Just that the euro QPF field is larger. Am I the only one who's noticed the Euro move the precip about 75 miles south since yesterday at 12Z? You know, where the NAM had it? Sheesh. Yeah, the parallel can be seen between the two models. I use the EURO maps over at weatherunderground. The model convergence is there. My area, North-Central MD seems to be in the 6"-8" zone and DC, especially with even a tiny bit of elevation seems to be in the 7" to 9" zone. My areas seems destined to dry out at 700 mb by early afternoon. We could be partly cloudy while DC still cashes in. The afternoon rush hour around DC could be bizarre. Banding, as mentioned by others, should result in local jackpots. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm stunned by this. He is clearly continuing to hug the Canadian. Even the Candian doesn't support that. Would require the Euro and 15:1 ratios+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I completely disagree with the jb map but every cell in my body wants it to verify Tons of t/l down in ok/tx/ar. All 3 types too. Pretty wild stuff Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 From JB2's article... "...After analyzing multiple models along with the satellite, radar, and core energy from California now in Texas that will head out way, I’ve determined this: The arctic boundary is a force beyond the norm in the climatology/history included in the model calculations. There is a lot of history included in how this may play out, but we often don’t have arctic air like this in early March. But the storm that hit California is also stronger than the norm and has a lot of warmer subtropical energy with it. So while the front has been seen to drop father south, I see the final wave of low pressure on Monday that will either push it back north a little or send the moisture farther north with its momentum. Since the Canadian Model does the best with arctic air and it does not push the front too far south, I have considered that to hold the heaviest snow right in the middle of central Maryland..." Thoughts? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, the parallel can be seen between the two models. The model convergence is there. My area, North-Central MD seems to be in the 6"-8" zone and DC, especially with even a tiny bit of elevation seems to be in the 7" to 9" zone. Banding, as mentioned by others, should result in local jackpots. You looked at the parallel WM? Was wondering what it is showing, has done very well recently and haven't had a chance to check. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual No chance IMO Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Call me crazy, but I still think this will end up a little north of where the models have the heaviest axis now... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wonderdog Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 you are crazy and I agree with you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I had to venture a guess, which I don't, I think I'd go 6-9" for the I-66 corridor and south ( to a point), and 3-6" to the north ( again to a point ). A good storm by any standard. Really curious to see just how cold it can get Tuesday morning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
aldie 22 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Call me crazy, but I still think this will end up a little north of where the models have the heaviest axis now... Agreed...I think this is a good call Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WEATHER53 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 50's to teeens and 20's, rain, sleet, snow, wind, Thundersnow, drifting snow, cats sleping with dogs, me and Ji having dinner......we've iot it all!!! Post storm temps will be special, winds underdiscussed I think, and once this gets going surface and 850 both very cold and I am certain 10-1 will be too low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 is a degreed met out of cornell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 18z RAP continues what 14z-17z RAPs have showed... DCA has a snow sounding by 3am MON Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I can't wait to miss the event. Brutal but can't stop looking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 As much as I want this to come north, I don't see why it would. All of the models seem to agree on a more southern track, but who knows, maybe Justin's map will verify. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought he changed He does have his cool-aid followers. For those who really pay attention, he is pretty awful. CWG's new map is spot on IMO, based on a blend of all the current guidance, and proper weighting. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MetalCapsFan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 is a degreed met out of cornell... That's why I figured I'd post the snippet of his article above. Any of the knowledgeable analysts here wanna weigh in on the plausibilty of his line of reasoning? Thanks! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 JB2 going all in as per the usual Oh Justin. I hope he verifies, but I think he's way too high Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Oh Justin. I hope he verifies, but I think he's way too high High on crack that is after looking at that map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Archived
This topic is now archived and is closed to further replies.