CheesyPoofs Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 +1 And how about the inconsistency with the Winter Storm Warning for 8-12 inches over areas that, on the map, are looking at 6-8 inches. Not LWX bashing, but yeah...the WSW (issued at 11:04) still has 8-12, but my zone, issued only an hour and a half later, now has 4-8. Probably should make sure those match up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Could be noise or it could be consensus. All guidance is tightly packed now. Everybody should have an easy time with proper expectations at this point. I think I'm good for 8" with a 6" min bar. The real fun starts when we transition from sleet to snow via thunderstorm....haha personally, I do believe ratios will be excellent and we'll get some crazy totals from them around the area I won't be surprised if there are many 12"+ reports I saved the BWI obs from the 2/10/10 blizzard and they are attached look at the many heavy snow obs with .05/hr or less qpf reports EDIT: BWI reported 19" with that event 2-10-10 Blizzard Obs.pdf Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Younar Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 They've got it expressed very appropriately per policy: I understand that 6-8 meets Winter Storm Warning criteria. I'm just noting that if I look at my Winter Storm Warning product, it calls for 8-12 inches. But the map calls for 6-8 inches in my area. Except for the 8, these are mutually exclusive. 6-12 inches is a fine forecast, but I would expect greater consistency in the messaging. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You dont usually see this in March, more or less in any snowstorm around here re Monday forecast: ZONE FORECAST PRODUCTNATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC106 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014VAZ053-022200-FAIRFAX-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...FAIRFAX106 PM EST SUN MAR 2 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM ESTMONDAY....THIS AFTERNOON...RAIN LIKELY. HIGHS IN THE LOWER 50S. NORTH WINDS5 TO 10 MPH. CHANCE OF RAIN 60 PERCENT. .TONIGHT...RAIN...SLEET...FREEZING RAIN AND SNOW AFTER MIDNIGHT.SNOW AND SLEET ACCUMULATION AROUND AN INCH. ICE ACCUMULATION OF UPTO A TENTH OF AN INCH. COLD WITH LOWS IN THE LOWER 20S. NORTH WINDS10 TO 15 MPH. CHANCE OF PRECIPITATION NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY...ISOLATED THUNDERSTORMS IN THE MORNING. SNOW. TOTAL SNOWACCUMULATION OF 6 TO 10 INCHES. MUCH COOLER WITH HIGHS IN THE LOWER20S. NORTH WINDS 10 TO 15 MPH WITH GUSTS UP TO 25 MPH. CHANCE OFSNOW NEAR 100 PERCENT. .MONDAY NIGHT...MOSTLY CLOUDY IN THE EVENING...THEN CLEARING. COLDWITH LOWS AROUND 6 ABOVE. NORTH WINDS 5 TO 10 MPH. WIND CHILL VALUESAS LOW AS 4 BELOW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I feel like I have been spoiled up here this year. Back in Norfolk I would be celebrating for 2-4 or 3-6 inches. Now, 6-8 here makes me cringe. To be honest, I am excited to have another nice storm even if the bullseye is 40 miles south. 6-10 is money imo Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm looking at that special fireweather NAM run and it seems to dry out at the surface very quickly by hour 36. Yet at the 700 mb level, the saturation is quite abundant. I'm wondering if LWX cut the snow forecast in reaction to the special NAM run and I'm wondering if the special NAM run has a flaw such that it trims back surface precipitation in this storm way too soon and way too sharply. I could be correct but seems to be hung up on mostly sleet and a little bit of snow and done and dusted. It is only one model run. Those Canadian models certainly have been abundant with surface precipitation. No wonder...that super special fireweather NAM run is predicated off the 0Z NAM run from last night. Stale info. Smelly old fish Debbie Downer No Snow for You Snow Nazi NAM RUN: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Those Canadian models certainly have been abundant with surface precipitation. So has UKMET and ECMWF and GFS and SREF. It is really just the NAM that has been under-performing. GFS might be a little less snow out of the same moisture, but the QPF is there for a nice dumping. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm looking at that special fireweather NAM run and it seems to dry out at the surface very quickly by hour 36. Yet at the 700 mb level, the saturation is quite abundant. I'm wondering if LWX cut the snow forecast in reaction to the special NAM run and I'm wondering if the special NAM run has a flaw such that it trims back surface precipitation in this storm way too soon and way too sharply. I could be correct but seems to be hung up on mostly sleet and a little bit of snow and done and dusted. It is only one model run. Those Canadian models certainly have been abundant with surface precipitation. No wonder...that super special fireweather NAM run is predicated off the 0Z NAM run from last night. Stale info. No. Those were run 18-24 hours ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 can this non-model discussion please be taken to the banter thread? thanks. Trixie, I like 6-8" for you Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No. Those were run 18-24 hours ago. Well, that's my point. If the Canadian models and EURO are all showing run to run consistency, they will sink or swim together. The special NAM run is interesting but I get the impression that its roots are in the NAM run(s) with the greatest southward swing of precipitation once the region is in the cold airmass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 You dont usually see this in March, more or less in any snowstorm around here re Monday forecast: IMO the most significant element of this whole event is the post storm temps.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 thanks, Matt. less would be even better. The NAM would give you 4-5", but it is an outlier for you.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm looking at that special fireweather NAM run and it seems to dry out at the surface very quickly by hour 36. Yet at the 700 mb level, the saturation is quite abundant. I'm wondering if LWX cut the snow forecast in reaction to the special NAM run and I'm wondering if the special NAM run has a flaw such that it trims back surface precipitation in this storm way too soon and way too sharply. I could be correct but seems to be hung up on mostly sleet and a little bit of snow and done and dusted. It is only one model run. Those Canadian models certainly have been abundant with surface precipitation. No wonder...that super special fireweather NAM run is predicated off the 0Z NAM run from last night. Stale info. Smelly old fish Debbie Downer No Snow for You Snow Nazi NAM RUN: http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Super special? It's used primarily for fire wx. And it shows changeover to show at 09Z for DC. So yes snow for you. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm sure it has been mentioned that the 4kNAM isn't necessarily wetter, but the good precip swath is noticeably north of the regular NAM Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm sure it has been mentioned that the 4kNAM isn't necessarily wetter, but the good precip swath is noticeably north of the regular NAM Actually, I hadn't heard that. Nice to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Euro is by far best solution for area Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Well, that's my point. If the Canadian models and EURO are all showing run to run consistency, they will sink or swim together. The special NAM run is interesting but I get the impression that its roots are in the NAM run(s) with the greatest southward swing of precipitation once the region is in the cold airmass. It has it's usefulness. Probably not this though, although you can get a close/hourly view of 0C lines. If you look at the axis of the greatest precip, the 12Z NAM and Euro are pretty darn close...south of DC. Just that the euro QPF field is larger. Am I the only one who's noticed the Euro move the precip about 75 miles south since yesterday at 12Z? You know, where the NAM had it? Sheesh. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 There was very little support for the earlier map. I don't want to complain.. I love the NWS.. but when you swing 6" both directions in a matter of 12 hours it might be time to have a discussion about what can be done better. They either go too low or too high too soon. This is the type of event where the trends were clearly weakening the storm and bring it further south. Start with 4-6" then go from there. Going with 8-14" was aggressive even if it ends up happening its an unnecessary call at this point given the whole setup. Just my penny. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 17z RAP has DCA in upper teens at 6am 17z RAP indicates DCA flips to snow between 2 and 3 am.... continues to show time period as the "flip zone" as the 14z/15z/16z runs showed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm sure it has been mentioned that the 4kNAM isn't necessarily wetter, but the good precip swath is noticeably north of the regular NAM I think we're locked in now for 6+. Meso stuff after the flip could be fun for someone. Or even most of us. There are some powderkeg qualities to the setup. Might be more fun than we already think. Nothing crazy like big upside snow totals. Just dynamic and fun. 2"/hr rates seem likely somewhere nearby Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SomeguyfromTakomaPark Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 17z RAP has DCA in upper teens at 6am 17z RAP indicates DCA flips to snow between 2 and 3 am.... continues to show time period as the "flip zone" as the 14z/15z/16z runs showed In line with the EURO which at 12z has the -10 C line running through the tip of DC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It has it's usefulness. Probably not this though, although you can get a close/hourly view of 0C lines. If you look at the axis of the greatest precip, the 12Z NAM and Euro are pretty darn close...south of DC. Just that the euro QPF field is larger. Am I the only one who's noticed the Euro move the precip about 75 miles south since yesterday at 12Z? You know, where the NAM had it? Sheesh. probably since it is still markedly north of where the NAM had it yesterday...I guess we'll have to see whether the NAM is correct with its dryness, southern edge of guidance, and +2 degrees at 800mb at 9z at DCA Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 17z RAP also suggests DCA has 3" snow at 6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 16z HRRR showing IAD flips around 1am, DCA around 2am. 2am is end of the run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 17z RAP also suggests DCA has 3" snow at 6am If we flip to snow at 2am, 8-10" is definitely doable. That might be too soon though. I'd like to see the RAP hold that though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think we're locked in now for 6+. Meso stuff after the flip could be fun for someone. Or even most of us. There are some powderkeg qualities to the setup. Might be more fun than we already think. Nothing crazy like big upside snow totals. Just dynamic and fun. 2"/hr rates seem likely somewhere nearby Yeah 6" seems like a good low mark. Which is pretty solid all things considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeSuck Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If we flip to snow at 2am, 8-10" is definitely doable. That might be too soon though. I'd like to see the RAP hold that though. I agree. However, is this still a situation where if we flip too soon then the southern track is more likely due to faster and stronger front? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If we flip to snow at 2am, 8-10" is definitely doable. That might be too soon though. I'd like to see the RAP hold that though. RAP has held that time period as the flip from sleet to snow since the 14z run 14z/15z/16z/17z runs have all said 2-3 am is the time period DCA flips to snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 NWS dropped Baltimore areas to 4-8 in winter headlines...havent checked DC EDIT DC 6-10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It has it's usefulness. Probably not this though, although you can get a close/hourly view of 0C lines. If you look at the axis of the greatest precip, the 12Z NAM and Euro are pretty darn close...south of DC. Just that the euro QPF field is larger. Am I the only one who's noticed the Euro move the precip about 75 miles south since yesterday at 12Z? You know, where the NAM had it? Sheesh. NAM FTW? Only time will tell... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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