NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The short range guidance for earlier flip seems to stay true with RAP. Hopefully EURO holds. edit: sort of ninja'd Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 have no idea if it means anything, but Euro's 850 temp forecasts for 12Z this morning at PIT, IAD, PHL and ROA off last night's 0Z run were all 1-2C too cold vs. actual soundings Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I don't live in Manchester anymore. This year has been a disaster, I've generally been getting 1-3" while 20 miles south of me gets 6-12. Look at the pa season snowfall map at Ctp nws I'm in that screw zone in east central pa that's in the 20s while just south and north is over 50. Been a really rough year here honestly. I'm not getting fringed here though I doubt ill get an inch. I was talking about the Baltimore area. Sorry if a lot if guidance showed 12" and a run comes in with 6 that's a bad run to me. I wasnt trying to imply with "crap run" comment that it showed no snowstorm just its a more moderate one vs the hecs the euro and some previous gfs and uk runs had. I know it gets a but touchy near big storms so I'm sorry I ruffled some feathers. I'd focus on the first wave coming through in the next few hours for you. You're on the northern side of its track, but it might give you a decent bit anyway, certainly more than tomorrow's storm will give for that part of PA. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What just happened? Check out LWX's snow map. They just slaughtered totals... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 have no idea if it means anything, but Euro's 850 temp forecasts for 12Z this morning at PIT, IAD, PHL and ROA off last night's 0Z run were all 1-2C too cold vs. actual soundingsThe euro has a cold bias. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 14z/15z/16z RAP all suggest that DCA flips to snow between 2 and 3am Agreed. There will probably be an early flip. I'm just worried about how much QPF is left after that. I want to see the euro hold serve to go 8-12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welbane Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Euro has 850 freezing line south of Richmond at 7 am tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What just happened? Check out LWX's snow map. They just slaughtered totals... woah. Seems unjustified until the EURO comes out at the very least... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro is out to 24 and looks fine more in a minute Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What just happened? Check out LWX's snow map. They just slaughtered totals...lol nothing like consistency Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro is south of last night but still not bad for DC...in line with other guidance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 What just happened? Check out LWX's snow map. They just slaughtered totals... That dumb thing should be banned. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol nothing like consistency Those maps are computer generated, correct? Because when the minimum is 6.5 and the forecast is 6-8 on their most likely... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 EURO at 24 850s are -6 across DCA... looks fine to me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fozz Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol nothing like consistency looks just like yesterday evening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mitchnick Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 thru 0Z, Euro warmer than last night at BWI Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro is about 0.8 for DC after 6z and should be mostly snow....probably an 8-10" event for DC based on that run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All models are pretty locked in now. 5-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC looks to be the consensus. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 euro is about 0.8 for DC after 6z and should be mostly snow....probably an 8-10" event for DC based on that run That's a great run Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All models are pretty locked in now. 5-8 for Baltimore, 6-10 for DC looks to be the consensus. Yup... nice storm for all Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
k94 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UKMET latest one to join the trend. Had ~28mm at 0z , 12z has about ~20mm of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have nothing else to add. Good run. 6-10" for most all of us and cold smokey powder on top of some light glaze-sleet-paste Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Glad the Euro held up. 6-10 still looks good for DCA, IMO. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, no worries with the Euro. Still a solid 6-10 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ravensrule Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 New weenie maps showing 12" for DC and 10" for Baltimore. Much tighter gradient than last nights 0Z though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UKMET latest one to join the trend. Had ~28mm at 0z , 12z has about ~20mm of snow. Looks like you are getting fringed, my friend. Too bad. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 People need to throw the few silly 15 inch runs out of their mind and realize the upside for this thing has always been about 10 inches at most... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 wxbell is run at a higher res so may be a little wetter but generally the 12z suite shows between 0.7-0.8 for DC after 6z...most of that is after 9z.....so a lot depends on the flip...but I think 0.65" is a good consensus as snow with maybe 1/2" mix before that.....I think 6-10" is a very nice forecast for DC.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd focus on the first wave coming through in the next few hours for you. You're on the northern side of its track, but it might give you a decent bit anyway, certainly more than tomorrow's storm will give for that part of PA. that's getting eaten up by down sloping here. Might get some light snow that's about it. This is your storm. It's ok ill live just frozen water but I won't lie it's been a frustrating year that I hope I don't repeat again soon. Enjoy the snow down there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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