hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'd say it looks nothing like what the NAM has. NAM at 1pm today: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_006_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140302+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Current radar: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php NAM is clearly not even close to what is going on. It's not "north" and it's not "south" - it is just...NAM = bad run. dunno what you are looking at, those look really close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even at the 11am update, I am very surprised at how bullish LWX is being: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGE NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC 1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ025-026-038-039-051>054-502>504-WVZ505-506- 030015- /O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0500Z-140303T2300Z/ DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-AUGUSTA- ROCKINGHAM-GREENE-MADISON-CULPEPER- PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX- ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER- WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON- EASTERN PENDLETON- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...STAUNTON... WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK... FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY... CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN 1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014 ...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHT TO 6 PM EST MONDAY... * PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW. * ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH ICE...MORE AT HIGHER ELEVATIONS...THEN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. Generally, they rarely go this all in. Yeah, they upped mine to 8-12 as well. Hope they are right, but 6-10 seems a little more reasonable. Not that most people outside us nut cases care about 10 vs 12. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathercoins Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No, but the fact that that is south is not good. It's exactly where it should be... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is that really what you think? He's mocking hosjiiii and his awful posts Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bdevil02 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Isn't there an obs thread for radar hallucinations? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Dude, calm down. The stuff over TX and Arkansas is our stuff and has barely even developed yet (and is in line with the NAM) Yeah. I can understand the tension and worry (I have that too!), but those radar comments do not add anything but distraction at this point and come off almost trollish. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, they upped mine to 8-12 as well. Hope they are right, but 6-10 seems a little more reasonable. Not that most people outside us nut cases care about 10 vs 12. Agree that 6-10 is probably a better number. I like their optimism though. Let's hope they are right. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 based on what I see 4-8 is a good call. still a solid snowfall, especially for march. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I've seen the information from all the other models, but missed anything from the Ukie. May have flipped past it in amongst everything else. Any word on what the 12Z Ukie showed, if it's in the same ballpark from last night's run? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Using simulated reflectivity to forecast out 24 hours...hmm... Anyway, LWX requested the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z. We will have that to look at for fun. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scraff Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I'm standing on my roof just waiting for the EURO. Life or death coming soon to a theater near you. LOL. Relax. Have a drink. Watch some Caps hockey. Wait for some heavy snow. Cheers to everyone keeping the loose cannons in check. ;-) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 based on what I see 4-8 is a good call. still a solid snowfall, especially for march. Now that is fairly reasonable, though perhaps a tad low compared to, say, CWG's forecast. But in the ballpark. And yes, it's very impressive for March. The temperatures will be as well. As I may have said earlier, I wonder if some places are going to blow away record lows Monday and Tuesday nights. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Using simulated reflectivity to forecast out 24 hours...hmm... Anyway, LWX requested the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z. We will have that to look at for fun. After years of watching in this forum I know that I should understand what "the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z" means but I just don't. Can you quickly explain that? Pretty please? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 so the 12z models so far all have 0.6 - 0.7" QPF after 9z for DC...so when we flip is pretty damn important....maybe 6-8" is a better forecast for DC pending the euro...I think the GFS and GGEM would be 7-8" storms and the NAM is probably more like 6".... The envelope for dc/burbs is pretty tight. We're really only dealing with 2 variables at this point. When we flip and how much falls after. In this specific case I think I flip around 3am and dc before 4am. But being worried about a later flip is very valid. Especially if rates suck. An early flip with sucky rates would be bad too. Good nowcasting exercise and short range model staring. Every model seems to have their own version of how much falls after and where the best sets up. An extra .20 @ 12-15:1 makes a big difference with snow totals for sure. Not sure how I feel about the euro being the wettest. But it's done pretty darn well at short range with southern systems. I suppose the euro coming out in a few is pretty important but we're also in noise time with the globals. I think 6" is totally safe in dc unless the wheels come off. 10" would prob be the max unless there is a high ratio blitz. All the 6-10" calls look really good imo and lwx is unusually bullish so that means they are prob too high. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Serious question (albeit weenie probably), considering where the temp gradient is setting up, is that indicative of where some of the better dynamics will be with this storm due to the clash of the air masses? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 After years of watching in this forum I know that I should understand what "the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z" means but I just don't. Can you quickly explain that? Pretty please? If I'm not mistaken, the NAM can be run at a high-resolution nest over specific areas. Typically done for fire weather situations, hence the name. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If I'm not mistaken, the NAM can be run at a high-resolution nest over specific areas. Typically done for fire weather situations, hence the name. Got it. Thanks so much. It shows that they'd like to see if what the NAM is doing (more drier air intrusion) is actually correct. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The envelope for dc/burbs is pretty tight. We're really only dealing with 2 variables at this point. When we flip and how much falls after. In this specific case I think I flip around 3am and dc before 4am. But being worried about a later flip is very valid. Especially if rates suck. An early flip with sucky rates would be bad too. Good nowcasting exercise and short range model staring. Every model seems to have their own version of how much falls after and where the best sets up. An extra .20 @ 12-15:1 makes a big difference with snow totals for sure. Not sure how I feel about the euro being the wettest. But it's done pretty darn well at short range with southern systems. I suppose the euro coming out in a few is pretty important but we're also in noise time with the globals. I think 6" is totally safe in dc unless the wheels come off. 10" would prob be the max unless there is a high ratio blitz. All the 6-10" calls look really good imo and lwx is unusually bullish so that means they are prob too high. Yeah, 6-10" area-wide, and someone may push a foot in there. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 After years of watching in this forum I know that I should understand what "the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z" means but I just don't. Can you quickly explain that? Pretty please? NCEP runs a 1.333 km nest for fire wx purposes, but it gets used for other stuff...severe, cases like this. Yesterday's 18Z/00Z cycles were run over DC as well. http://www.emc.ncep.noaa.gov/mmb/mmbpll/firewx/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Crap run for everyone? I think you are taking your back yard in the context for everyone..its certainly still not bad for DC into VA...would someone in DC really complain about 6-7 inches of snow in March? its all relative to potential. If this was projected to have 3-6" potential then a gfs run with 5-8 would be great. But for a storm that has 12+ potential if things break right 5-8 is a bit of a letdown. We all have our own expectations also. I was not projecting my area into it I am out of the game on this one. That vort in the lakes rotating around the pv at the worst time ruined this for my area 2 days ago. I'm paying attention because I want Baltimore to get enough for me to have a day off Monday, and if possible maybe tues if this can be 10+ for them. Ill probably be back in Maryland next year and just hope I don't suffer watching central pa get crushed next year or I may need some therapy. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Didn't we say no banter in this thread yesterday? I'm seeing an awful lot of it in the last two pages... Can we please focus on the models and not argue over trivial stuff? Yeah, a fair bit of banter, and I'm as guilty as anyone else on that score. But I suspect "storm mode" may be coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 We're in between runs. That changes in 20 minutes. Yeah, a fair bit of banter, and I'm as guilty as anyone else on that score. But I suspect "storm mode" may be coming soon. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 12z GGEM meteogram at DCA -- http://meteocentre.com/models/get_mgram.php?stn=Washington&mod=gemglb&run=12&var=prcp〈=en&map=us 4mm sleet and 18mm snow -- .15" sleet and .70" snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Serious question (albeit weenie probably), considering where the temp gradient is setting up, is that indicative of where some of the better dynamics will be with this storm due to the clash of the air masses? Its a fair assumption...Where places are in the 50s for temps right now I think is the jackpot zone. Just my opinion Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 UKMET is like 20-22 mm snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jums300 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can't remember a storm where being warmer the day before meant more snow. It makes sense for this storm and sitting at 41 degrees kind of makes me little worried. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Can't remember a storm where being warmer the day before meant more snow. It makes sense for this storm and sitting at 41 degrees kind of makes me little worried. I remember a storm in a few days before or after April 1, 2000 up in the Albany area where the temperatures hit 89F the day before we had 16" of snow on the ground. That was a system to remember. I wasn't paying much attention to weather back then, so I don't know if "warmer was better" for that or not. A lot of people I knew thought it was an April Fools joke when they woke up to snow they didn't expect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDstorm Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Using simulated reflectivity to forecast out 24 hours...hmm... Anyway, LWX requested the NAM fire wx nest over DC for 18Z/00Z. We will have that to look at for fun. You know something big is on the way when the NAM fire wx nest is instituted, lol. Also, King Euro is on his throne and ready to put all you nervous nellies in your place. MDstorm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I like to think even if you lived on top of Mt Rainier you'd complain about being fringed. I don't live in Manchester anymore. This year has been a disaster, I've generally been getting 1-3" while 20 miles south of me gets 6-12. Look at the pa season snowfall map at Ctp nws I'm in that screw zone in east central pa that's in the 20s while just south and north is over 50. Been a really rough year here honestly. I'm not getting fringed here though I doubt ill get an inch. I was talking about the Baltimore area. Sorry if a lot if guidance showed 12" and a run comes in with 6 that's a bad run to me. I wasnt trying to imply with "crap run" comment that it showed no snowstorm just its a more moderate one vs the hecs the euro and some previous gfs and uk runs had. I know it gets a but touchy near big storms so I'm sorry I ruffled some feathers. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 14z/15z/16z RAP all suggest that DCA flips to snow between 2 and 3am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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