Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 If rates are good, I think we can overcome that... its pretty shallow as you say. I think Bob Chill said it a few pages ago, if its light we prob have to wait for flip. If its coming down hard, we flip earlier After 9z 12z GFS/NAM/GGEM roughly 0.65", 0z Euro roughly 0.8"...I think there is less model disagreement than we think for ME and YOU.....I'll wait to see the euro before putting out a forecast for my FB friends...but I think we are good for 6-10" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Yeoman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AvantHiatus Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol why did everyone lower the forecast temps for today? already busted low. Kind of NAM-esque with the W to E temp gradient, 55 here. I think we will not need to worry about suppression. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I sure hope it looks a lot more like what's in that video rather than when he was here for Noquester last March! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 After 9z 12z GFS/NAM/GGEM roughly 0.65", 0z Euro roughly 0.8"...I think there is less model disagreement than we think for ME and YOU.....I'll wait to see the euro before putting out a forecast for my FB friends...but I think we are good for 6-10" Agreed. At least in terms of precip DCA seems to be in the middle of the envelope. RIC and north of Baltimore are on the respective fringes precip-wise. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM looks to be snow before 09Z as well. Hard to tell I only have 06Z/12Z panels...but 850 is just north of DC at 06Z. Edit: also, the hiresw twins have a favorable precip axis for DC versus NAM/GFS. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 After 9z 12z GFS/NAM/GGEM roughly 0.65", 0z Euro roughly 0.8"...I think there is less model disagreement than we think for ME and YOU.....I'll wait to see the euro before putting out a forecast for my FB friends...but I think we are good for 6-10" Agreed... thats where my forecast lies that I sent out about an hour ago... I did mention potential to be on the low end if we flip late... but if everything came together at the right time and the 00z EURO was correct that we could see close to a foot at the high end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agreed. At least in terms of precip DCA seems to be in the middle of the envelope. RIC and north of Baltimore are on the respective fringes precip-wise. I just remember on 2/12, people saying things like "Don't be such a worry wart!" when I constantly brought up sleet, and "No way we mix before 7am!!!!"....and of course at 3-4am it was a battle....and downtown DC and south and east got 5-9" from round 1....weenies tend to simply put their fingers in their ears and ignore any evidence that doesnt support their fantasy of 18"...SO I am going on the record again...I am worried that we don't flip until 5am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wonder how well these models are taking into account the cooling effect of melting snow as it passes through such a narrow warm nose. Think about the vectors involved. We have cold air advection moving from NNW to SSE, moisture moving northeast in the eastern Ozarks and the ENE leeward of the Appalachians, the upper and lower vorticity maxes each have their own vectors and the jet max at 250 mb has its own vector. Simply put, we analyze the models, the radar trends, put the satellite water vapor loops in motion, use dual pol radar to track the rain-snow line and try to keep up. If we think about it in that manner, we are being scientific. I didn't answer your question directly, it is time to track evolution of the system in real time and determine which models seem to be verifying. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That's my feelings as well. Of course I don't want to be shut out but if we get 6 or less and someone 45 mile south gets 12 I could care less. Good for them and I would feel this way whether I've had 70 inches up to this point or 30 inches. Agree! Here's to 6" and a damn good season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It's a legit worry for the DC crew. If I had to wager, Id say BWI/Bmore crew is good by 3am, DC crew is good by 5am. Anything earlier is golden. I just remember on 2/12, people saying things like "Don't be such a worry wart!" when I constantly brought up sleet, and "No way we mix before 7am!!!!"....and of course at 3-4am it was a battle....and downtown DC and south and east got 5-9" from round 1....weenies tend to simply put their fingers in their ears and ignore any evidence that doesnt support their fantasy of 18"...SO I am going on the record again...I am worried that we don't flip until 5am... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All I'm shooting for is 6". If I get more, great. If I only get 4-5, I probably won't care too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BTRWx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM looks to be snow before 09Z as well. Hard to tell I only have 06Z/12Z panels...but 850 is just north of DC at 06Z. Edit: also, the hiresw twins have a favorable precip axis for DC versus NAM/GFS. 12Z ARW looks a tad drier considering, but still fine by me Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All I'm shooting for is 6". If I get more, great. If I only get 4-5, I probably won't care too much. Same here! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just remember on 2/12, people saying things like "Don't be such a worry wart!" when I constantly brought up sleet, and "No way we mix before 7am!!!!"....and of course at 3-4am it was a battle....and downtown DC and south and east got 5-9" from round 1....weenies tend to simply put their fingers in their ears and ignore any evidence that doesnt support their fantasy of 18"...SO I am going on the record again...I am worried that we don't flip until 5am... Given the speed of the temp drop at least we should be able to extrapolate north to south in terms of changeover by watching what is going on in southern PA and far northern MD. I don't think this is a case where Parkton is snowing for hours while DCA is hanging with sleet and a shallow warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 All I'm shooting for is 6". If I get more, great. If I only get 4-5, I probably won't care too much. 6-10 across the area remains a good call unless the Euro craps the bed, then maybe 5-8 is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Given the speed of the temp drop at least we should be able to extrapolate north to south in terms of changeover by watching what is going on in southern PA and far northern MD. I don't think this is a case where Parkton is snowing for hours while DCA is hanging with sleet and a shallow warm nose. agreed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Radar looks south of where the NAM had it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agreed. Just playing to the......if this busts low crowd. I won't care too much unless I get something really low like under 4". 6-10 across the area remains a good call unless the Euro craps the bed, then maybe 5-8 is better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Pretty incredible temp disparity...its why some places will see thundersleet/snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Folks don't forget your mPING! http://www.nssl.noaa.gov/projects/ping/ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Agreed...we are in trouble I think Knew this would happen. I'm jumping off the bridge Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Radar looks fine to me...quit with the hallucinations already...at least wait until after dark. Why hasnt hosj III been 5 posted already? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
T. August Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 The stuff on the radar over Kentucky isn't the the same that will impact us... is it? Serious question. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hosj III Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No, but the fact that that is south is not good. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Quasievil Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Even at the 11am update, I am very surprised at how bullish LWX is being: URGENT - WINTER WEATHER MESSAGENATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE BALTIMORE MD/WASHINGTON DC1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014DCZ001-MDZ013-014-VAZ025-026-038-039-051>054-502>504-WVZ505-506-030015-/O.CON.KLWX.WS.W.0008.140303T0500Z-140303T2300Z/DISTRICT OF COLUMBIA-PRINCE GEORGES-ANNE ARUNDEL-AUGUSTA-ROCKINGHAM-GREENE-MADISON-CULPEPER-PRINCE WILLIAM/MANASSAS/MANASSAS PARK-FAIRFAX-ARLINGTON/FALLS CHURCH/ALEXANDRIA-SOUTHERN FAUQUIER-WESTERN HIGHLAND-EASTERN HIGHLAND-WESTERN PENDLETON-EASTERN PENDLETON-INCLUDING THE CITIES OF...WASHINGTON...ANNAPOLIS...STAUNTON...WAYNESBORO...HARRISONBURG...CULPEPER...MANASSAS...MANASSAS PARK...FAIRFAX...ALEXANDRIA...FALLS CHURCH...HIGHTOWN...MONTEREY...CIRCLEVILLE...FRANKLIN1104 AM EST SUN MAR 2 2014...WINTER STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FROM MIDNIGHT TONIGHTTO 6 PM EST MONDAY...* PRECIPITATION TYPE...FREEZING RAIN...SLEET...AND HEAVY SNOW.* ACCUMULATIONS...UP TO ONE TENTH INCH ICE...MORE AT HIGHERELEVATIONS...THEN 8 TO 12 INCHES OF SNOW. Generally, they rarely go this all in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Radar looks south of where the NAM had it. Do your homework. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Is that really what you think? I'd say it looks nothing like what the NAM has. NAM at 1pm today: http://mag.ncep.noaa.gov/NCOMAGWEB/appcontroller/Image.php?fhr=006ℑ=data%2Fnam-hires%2F12%2Fnam-hires_namer_006_sim_reflectivity.gif&model=nam-hires&area=namer¶m=sim_reflectivity&group=Model+Guidance&preselected_formatted_cycle_date=20140302+12+UTC&imageSize=&ps=area Current radar: http://radar.weather.gov/Conus/full_loop.php NAM is clearly not even close to what is going on. It's not "north" and it's not "south" - it is just...NAM = bad run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Why? Is the euro gonna be even better? No, I cannot say that right now, nor did I even suggest it. But it's a bit early to be freaking out at the radar. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TL97 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 No, but the fact that that is south is not good. Dude, calm down. The stuff over TX and Arkansas is our stuff and has barely even developed yet (and is in line with the NAM) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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