paxpatriot Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is one of those times I wish the RUC didn't completely overdue totals. 14Z run pretty much crushes everyone with more to come. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for DC.....~0.65" falls after 9z....though I am starting to worry that 9z is not snow on any of these models and that we flip closer to 5-6am Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good point. I went and looked up the surface winds to see where the cold air is coming from, and they are quite different with the NAM vs every other model. I used the ECMWF, but the 12z GFS is pretty much the same as the ECMWF. Look how much further south the northern east-west flow is on the NAM: Here's the 6z NAM (don't have 12z at this source yet): Screen Shot 2014-03-02 at 11.16.11 AM.png Here's the 0z ECMWF: Screen Shot 2014-03-02 at 11.16.19 AM.png Thanks for answering. It's way early, I know, but in past storms our cold seemingly arrives later than modeled. Of course every situation is different and this is a rare cold event for March, but I am wondering if this doesn't all tick more north than guidance. I am not saying that as a weenie either. It's win/lose situation. Comes north, less cold. Goes south, less snow but higher ratios. Just making an observation and trying not to be all taker. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWxLuvr Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 14z RAP has snow in DCA at 3am... sounding has 0.5 at 775 and 800 level... but it should be snow or like minutes after 15z has that precip pretty far north too. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Think he's having some math problems but oh well. edit: I don't think he was here for Feb 12-13 but maybe. It would be cool if dca beats the 2/12 storm. Considering how cold it will be during and after, even if the totals are modestly lower it will be a better all around even. The drip drip drip of the 2/12 storm definitely took some of the allure out of a big snow. And having heavies during daylight is always a net+ Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for DC.....~0.65" falls after 9z....though I am starting to worry that 9z is not snow on any of these models and that we flip closer to 5-6am all our storms are a pain here except once in a blue moon but this one has lots of bust potential given the narrow zone of max precip, pressing dry air etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Think he's having some math problems but oh well. edit: I don't think he was here for Feb 12-13 but maybe. I think Ronnie airport in fact did get "only" 7" from that Feb. 12-13 event. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for DC.....~0.65" falls after 9z....though I am starting to worry that 9z is not snow on any of these models and that we flip closer to 5-6am It would be nice if we can get the flip closer to 3am like the Euro has Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 This is one of those times I wish the RUC didn't completely overdue totals. 14Z run pretty much crushes everyone with more to come. HRRR was dead on for the early Feb snowstorm. HRRR is based on RAP2, which is the upgrade of the RAP (aka RUC2), so maybe it isn't overdoing totals? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It would be cool if dca beats the 2/12 storm. Considering how cold it will be during and after, even if the totals are modestly lower it will be a better all around even. The drip drip drip of the 2/12 storm definitely took some of the allure out of a big snow. And having heavies during daylight is always a net+ we could beat it at DCA for sure if it comes together right. i didn't notice the zone has iso t-storms in it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It would be nice if we can get the flip closer to 3am like the Euro has It would also be nice if the 12z euro destroys us with precip again....I'm kinda feelin it but post mortem will decide the winning model. I'll hug the snowiest and be satisfied with the nam either way. Nam may go nuts too. It has 2 more runs to do it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I think Ronnie airport in fact did get "only" 7" from that Feb. 12-13 event. it did but i don't think he was here for that storm unless i'm mistaken. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 we could beat it at DCA for sure if it comes together right. i didn't notice the zone has iso t-storms in it! Plenty of t/l sw of us. Pretty major clash of airmasses basically overhead. Someone should get some rumbles. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 It would be nice if we can get the flip closer to 3am like the Euro has we can't even be certain of the euro flip I dont think.....though I agree it is earlier.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HighStakes Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Sweating, why? 4-8" for us up here is a damn good snow for the beginning of March. No one should be sweating at all That's my feelings as well. Of course I don't want to be shut out but if we get 6 or less and someone 45 mile south gets 12 I could care less. Good for them and I would feel this way whether I've had 70 inches up to this point or 30 inches. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 That would be excellent. Actually, 15z RAP is snow at DCA at 3am... entire column is below zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Actually, 15z RAP is snow at DCA at 3am... entire column is below zeroReally strange, considering the rap runs warm usually. But this is our new RAP, so maybe the bias isn't as pertinent. Not around the computer at the moment, hows the shield looking? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP temps at range... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mosi76 Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 it did but i don't think he was here for that storm unless i'm mistaken. he wasn't. He was in Augusta, GA with the ice Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ohleary Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GGEM is a nice hit for DC.....~0.65" falls after 9z....though I am starting to worry that 9z is not snow on any of these models and that we flip closer to 5-6am GFS is snow/sleet at 06Z at IAD, zr at DCA, both are snow at 09Z. I think it pans out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 At the end of the RAP run, N/W def doing better. An inch in DC @ 4am, closer to 3 in spots N/W. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Really strange, considering the rap runs warm usually. But this is our new RAP, so maybe the bias isn't as pertinent. Not around the computer at the moment, hows the shield looking? Fairly far north, although it only shows the first little slug coming through. Hard to say what the big batch will do. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 so the 12z models so far all have 0.6 - 0.7" QPF after 9z for DC...so when we flip is pretty damn important....maybe 6-8" is a better forecast for DC pending the euro...I think the GFS and GGEM would be 7-8" storms and the NAM is probably more like 6".... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RAP temps at range... I am not looking at the surface temps... just the sounding profiles to get an idea of when we flip Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 GFS is snow/sleet at 06Z at IAD, zr at DCA, both are snow at 09Z. I think it pans out. the warm nose is pretty shallow anyway.....might even snow with 800mb at +1...so on the GFS before 9z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 the warm nose is pretty shallow anyway.....might even snow with 800mb at +1...so on the GFS before 9z If rates are good, I think we can overcome that... its pretty shallow as you say. I think Bob Chill said it a few pages ago, if its light we prob have to wait for flip. If its coming down hard, we flip earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 the warm nose is pretty shallow anyway.....might even snow with 800mb at +1...so on the GFS before 9z Wonder how well these models are taking into account the cooling effect of melting snow as it passes through such a narrow warm nose. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wonder how well these models are taking into account the cooling effect of melting snow as it passes through such a narrow warm nose. they are.....they are incredibly sophisticated... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
needbiggerboat Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Wonder how well these models are taking into account the cooling effect of melting snow as it passes through such a narrow warm nose. It largely depends if the septum of the warm nose is deviated or not. If so, the falling snow is disrupted during it's descent and maintains it's dendritic structure in most cases. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 lol why did everyone lower the forecast temps for today? already busted low. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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