snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yeah, 6 inches of snow sucks. Stop posting. And of course, most of us don't care about his BY. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have a question. Is our cold air source on the move because of the high over MN now? I seem to remember the models a few days back anchoring a 1032 high over NE and forcing arctic air down the coast. I had been thinking that the "press" would come more from NE. If not, I guess I don't see why guidance keeps the storm so far south when the front isn't moving much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I just sent in a quote. I'm happy with our amounts. I did note that most of the SREF members were quicker with the changeover than the GFS for what that is worth. I thought we were a little low initially too.. but we usually end up doing ok when I think that so who knows. I'm still setting my IMBY bar at 8".. anything less is an unmitigated disaster. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DCAlexandria Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I thought we were a little low initially too.. but we usually end up doing ok when I think that so who knows. I'm still setting my IMBY bar at 8".. anything less is an unmitigated disaster.. U guys busted (or is it boomed?) a few times this year.Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 yeah GFS looks like 5-8" for Baltimore and surrounding burbs. QPF looks good, things came a bit north. As some are saying, a bit warmer, which leads to the more northern solution (at least minutely). it didn't come north it's just weaker so less precip makes it into the cold air plus things cool slower with a less dynamic situation. It's just a crap run for everyone. Being up here in pa I can tell u it definitely didnt move north at all it took me from a measly couple inches last run to nothing this one. The second wave just continues to look weaker and more strung out run to run. Euro looked good for you last night so its possible the gfs is washing this out too much. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have a question. Is our cold air source on the move because of the high over MN now? I seem to remember the models a few days back anchoring a 1032 high over NE and forcing arctic air down the coast. I had been thinking that the "press" would come more from NE. If not, I guess I don't see why guidance keeps the storm so far south when the front isn't moving much. Yes. This is a good question. It would help explain some of the differences with the models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 According to these CMC has flip to snow about 3-4AM The strangest thing about that map is that the DC snow hole is actually over NY. You never see that. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BaltimoreWxGuy Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 it didn't come north it's just weaker so less precip makes it into the cold air plus things cool slower with a less dynamic situation. It's just a crap run for everyone. Being up here in pa I can tell u it definitely didnt move north at all it took me from a measly couple inches last run to nothing this one. The second wave just continues to look weaker and more strung out run to run. Euro looked good for you last night so its possible the gfs is washing this out too much. Crap run for everyone? I think you are taking your back yard in the context for everyone..its certainly still not bad for DC into VA...would someone in DC really complain about 6-7 inches of snow in March? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
winterymix Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Snow DC/Balto. runs 8Z to 21Z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxmeddler Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 I have a question. Is our cold air source on the move because of the high over MN now? I seem to remember the models a few days back anchoring a 1032 high over NE and forcing arctic air down the coast. I had been thinking that the "press" would come more from NE. If not, I guess I don't see why guidance keeps the storm so far south when the front isn't moving much. No, the cold air source has always been with the mega HP over the N plains. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted March 2, 2014 Author Share Posted March 2, 2014 it didn't come north it's just weaker so less precip makes it into the cold air plus things cool slower with a less dynamic situation. It's just a crap run for everyone. Being up here in pa I can tell u it definitely didnt move north at all it took me from a measly couple inches last run to nothing this one. The second wave just continues to look weaker and more strung out run to run. Euro looked good for you last night so its possible the gfs is washing this out too much. Crap run? For everyone? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PhineasC Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 it didn't come north it's just weaker so less precip makes it into the cold air plus things cool slower with a less dynamic situation. It's just a crap run for everyone. Being up here in pa I can tell u it definitely didnt move north at all it took me from a measly couple inches last run to nothing this one. The second wave just continues to look weaker and more strung out run to run. Euro looked good for you last night so its possible the gfs is washing this out too much. I like to think even if you lived on top of Mt Rainier you'd complain about being fringed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Random Chaos Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Yes. This is a good question. It would help explain some of the differences with the models. Good point. I went and looked up the surface winds to see where the cold air is coming from, and they are quite different with the NAM vs every other model. I used the ECMWF, but the 12z GFS is pretty much the same as the ECMWF. Look how much further south the northern east-west flow is on the NAM: Here's the 6z NAM (don't have 12z at this source yet): Here's the 0z ECMWF: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Crap run? For everyone? Best disaster for us ever. Ian is unmitigated with the run tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Topper Shutt @Toppersweather 3m Don't surprised if we have thunder sleet late tonight. How cool is that ? Reports of thunder sleet in MO & KY. @wusa9 @hbwx @ericagrow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Deck Pic Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 looking more closely at NAM soundings, 9z is still quite warm at 800mb...at 12z everything is fine.....so maybe a flip around 10-11z....about .3" falls between 9z and 12z so at say a blend of 7:1 ratios, that is 2"....and then 13:1 on the remainder would be 4"....for 6" total...an earlier flip would make a big difference Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! My calm cool and collected just hit a panic button the size of the tidal basin Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WVsnowlover Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Nooooooo!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Frikin curse of the Cantore. He needs to go to Richmond. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bob Chill Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 looking more closely at NAM soundings, 9z is still quite warm at 800mb...at 12z everything is fine.....so maybe a flip around 10-11z....about .3" falls between 9z and 12z so at say a blend of 7:1 ratios, that is 2"....and then 13:1 on the remainder would be 4"....for 6" total...an earlier flip would make a big difference I think we flip early. Like 8-9z. If sleet comes in hot and heavy I think snow follows quickly on the heels. If rates are light then a later switch of course Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Cantore is coming to DC! Keep him there. Set him up in DuPont Circle. Plenty of amusement. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jacindc Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jim Cantore @JimCantore After a little stop off in NYC it's off to #DC via train. We will see if we can top our 7" at Reagan total a few weeks ago. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 14z RAP has snow in DCA at 3am... sounding has 0.5 at 775 and 800 level... but it should be snow or like minutes after Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DDweatherman Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 14z RAP has snow in DCA at 3am... sounding has 0.5 at 775 and 800 level... but it should be snow or like minutes afterThat would be excellent. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Subtropics Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Word has it Jimmy is on his way to the most powerful city in the world. Fingers crossed he brings some good fortune with him this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Good point. I went and looked up the surface winds to see where the cold air is coming from, and they are quite different with the NAM vs every other model. I used the ECMWF, but the 12z GFS is pretty much the same as the ECMWF. Look how much further south the northern east-west flow is on the NAM: Here's the 6z NAM (don't have 12z at this source yet): Screen Shot 2014-03-02 at 11.16.11 AM.png Here's the 0z ECMWF: Screen Shot 2014-03-02 at 11.16.19 AM.png Thanks. This is due to how it handles the force of the cold? My eyes are beat now. I know HM has already discussed it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ian Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 Jim Cantore @JimCantore After a little stop off in NYC it's off to #DC via train. We will see if we can top our 7" at Reagan total a few weeks ago. Think he's having some math problems but oh well. edit: I don't think he was here for Feb 12-13 but maybe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nj2va Posted March 2, 2014 Share Posted March 2, 2014 RGEM is about ~0.6-0.7" snow here with a flip around 3 am. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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